Part of: Berlin State Election: Grüne Vote Share?

Will Grüne win less than 14% of all valid second votes?

This prediction market asks whether Grüne will receive less than 14% of all valid second votes in Berlin’s September 20, 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election. The market’s live Yes/No odds reflect trader expectations and will resolve using the party’s official Zweitstimme percentage; an exact 14% result resolves to the higher bracket.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,096.

Categories: World, Berlin, Germany, Politics, Elections, World Elections, German Elections, Global Elections, International Election Props

Notable Trades

Large quiet-market No bet

A nearly market-defining $2.9K No bet in an extremely quiet market is notable, though the trader's middling 56% win rate limits the copying case.

  • This $2,903 position accounts for roughly 57 times the market's entire 24-hour volume.
  • The serial trader has participated across 162 events and 192 markets, but a 56% win rate is not a strong edge.
  • No has already risen from 79¢ to 83¢ after the entry, suggesting the trade moved the thin market.

$1,193 on No | Wallet win rate: 55%

Large quiet-market No bet

A nearly market-defining $2.9K No bet in an extremely quiet market is notable, though the trader's middling 56% win rate limits the copying case.

  • This $2,903 position accounts for roughly 57 times the market's entire 24-hour volume.
  • The serial trader has participated across 162 events and 192 markets, but a 56% win rate is not a strong edge.
  • No has already risen from 79¢ to 83¢ after the entry, suggesting the trade moved the thin market.

$2,903 on No | Wallet win rate: 55%

Top Holders

  1. 0x629b...995a Yes, $6,432 (53% win rate)
  2. 0xb1ca...1705 No, $5,305 (55% win rate)
  3. 0x23d8...0288 Yes, $1,582 (82% win rate)
  4. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $1,005
  5. 0xe8c4...395d No, $848 (94% win rate)
  6. 0x5a54...50fd No, $586
  7. 0xd8d5...8935 Yes, $300 (73% win rate)
  8. 0xc602...7fc1 No, $155 (43% win rate)
  9. 0xbdd0...550a No, $150
  10. 0xfde6...7ed6 Yes, $144 (70% win rate)

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Will Grüne win less than 14% of all valid second votes?

9dBerlin State Election: Grüne Vote Share?$4,096 tracked2 signalsWorldBerlinGermanyPoliticsElectionsWorld ElectionsGerman ElectionsGlobal ElectionsInternational Election Props
Yes
24¢
No
77¢

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

Price History — “No
87¢
78¢
70¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Grüne win less than 14% of all valid second votes?

1d ago

$1,193 on No at 79¢

79¢77¢2¢

Will Grüne win less than 14% of all valid second votes?

6d ago

$2,903 on No at 79¢

79¢77¢2¢

Related Theses