Part of: Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?
This Polymarket asks whether Iran will lose primary governmental or military control of Hengam Island by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Current odds are not included in the provided market metadata; it shows one tracked smart-money signal, with a profitable trader adding to No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,283.
Categories: Iran, Khamenei, Geopolitics, Iran Regime, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Mojtaba Khamenei, Strait of Hormuz
Notable Trades
Profitable trader adding to No
A highly profitable, active trader added a substantial No position in a thinly traded market, though the wallet’s record does not clearly show an edge relative to its average winning price.
- This bettor is up $266,661 across 590 resolved markets and has traded across 42 events.
- The $1,284 buy was larger than the market’s entire 24-hour volume of $829, and adds to an existing No position.
- The trader entered No at 88¢; the market is now at 94¢.
$1,283 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%
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