Part of: What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,434.
Categories: Enrich, Politics, Geopolitics, Trump, Uranium, toll, Sanctions, Trade War, Tariff, Iran Ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz, Fees, Iran, Economy
Notable Trades
$1M-profit event trader
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with nearly $1.0M in profits bought Yes at 10¢, well below the current 18¢ price, suggesting a potentially informed thesis across this event.
- This bettor has won 565 of 888 resolved trades and is up about $984k lifetime
- They trade heavily across related markets — 51 markets across 38 events for $1.87M total
- They bought Yes at 10¢ and the market is now 18¢, meaning the position has already moved in their favor
$1,683 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
87% win-rate macro bettor
An 87% win-rate serial cross-market trader is buying No at 90¢ on a geopolitics market, making this a credible follow despite the modest size and only one signal.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up nearly $29k lifetime
- They have traded 37 markets across 30 events, which points to a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
- Buying No at 90¢ fits their history of winning on heavy favorites, though the upside is smaller than a longer-shot entry
$1,751 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Top Holders
- 0x4b8c...9e5d — Outcome 92967848, $34,395
- 0xcede...a37c — Outcome 92967848, $11,307 (25% win rate)
- 0x6bd4...ed58 — Outcome 92967848, $10,000 (10% win rate)
- 0x2fef...3c7e — Outcome 92967848, $8,497
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 92967848, $7,438 (84% win rate)
- 0x2a33...c087 — Outcome 92967848, $6,200 (45% win rate)
- 0x0dc5...a303 — Outcome 92967848, $5,986 (59% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 92967848, $5,000 (42% win rate)
- 0x6c92...1322 — Outcome 92967848, $4,988 (49% win rate)
- 0x456e...a6e9 — Outcome 92967848, $4,644
