Part of: What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,434.

Categories: Enrich, Politics, Geopolitics, Trump, Uranium, toll, Sanctions, Trade War, Tariff, Iran Ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz, Fees, Iran, Economy

Notable Trades

$1M-profit event trader

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with nearly $1.0M in profits bought Yes at 10¢, well below the current 18¢ price, suggesting a potentially informed thesis across this event.

  • This bettor has won 565 of 888 resolved trades and is up about $984k lifetime
  • They trade heavily across related markets — 51 markets across 38 events for $1.87M total
  • They bought Yes at 10¢ and the market is now 18¢, meaning the position has already moved in their favor

$1,683 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%

87% win-rate macro bettor

An 87% win-rate serial cross-market trader is buying No at 90¢ on a geopolitics market, making this a credible follow despite the modest size and only one signal.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up nearly $29k lifetime
  • They have traded 37 markets across 30 events, which points to a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
  • Buying No at 90¢ fits their history of winning on heavy favorites, though the upside is smaller than a longer-shot entry

$1,751 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Top Holders

  1. 0x4b8c...9e5d Outcome 92967848, $34,395
  2. 0xcede...a37c Outcome 92967848, $11,307 (25% win rate)
  3. 0x6bd4...ed58 Outcome 92967848, $10,000 (10% win rate)
  4. 0x2fef...3c7e Outcome 92967848, $8,497
  5. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 92967848, $7,438 (84% win rate)
  6. 0x2a33...c087 Outcome 92967848, $6,200 (45% win rate)
  7. 0x0dc5...a303 Outcome 92967848, $5,986 (59% win rate)
  8. 0x4a2b...af20 Outcome 92967848, $5,000 (42% win rate)
  9. 0x6c92...1322 Outcome 92967848, $4,988 (49% win rate)
  10. 0x456e...a6e9 Outcome 92967848, $4,644

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?

ResolvedWhat Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?$3,434 tracked2 signalsEnrichPoliticsGeopoliticsTrumpUraniumtollSanctionsTrade WarTariffIran CeasefireStrait of HormuzFeesIranEconomy

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. - Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.

Notable Trades

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?

36d ago

$1,683 on Yes at 10¢

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?

40d ago

$1,751 on No at 90¢

Related Theses