What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?
8 signals across 2 markets · $25,352 tracked · resolves Apr 30, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks which Iranian demands, if any, Trump and the United States agree to by the April 30, 2026 deadline. Traders are pricing two related outcomes: acceptance of continued Iranian uranium enrichment and agreement to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. PolySpotter is tracking $25,352 in smart money activity across 8 signals, including sharp Yes buying and profitable macro traders taking opposing views.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- $1M-profit event trader
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with nearly $1.0M in profits bought Yes at 10¢, well below the current 18¢ price, suggesting a potentially informed thesis across this event.
$1,683Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 6.0 - Sharp cluster buying Yes
Three wallets sold No together, which translates to buying Yes around 19¢, and one of them is a very high-volume bettor with a 95% win rate and $72k profit, making this coordinated contrarian flow worth watching despite the modest score.
$5,662Score: 5.1 - Profitable macro trader fading Yes
A highly profitable, high-volume political trader with 888 resolved bets sold Yes at 34¢, which converts to a Buy No signal around 66¢ in a news-driven market that has already moved sharply this week.
$1,073Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 4.0 - 72% win-rate macro bettor
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a strong long-term record bought No at 86¢ in a geopolitics market, making this a credible sharp-follower signal despite only one detection source.
$1,717Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 4.0 - 87% win-rate macro bettor
An 87% win-rate serial cross-market trader is buying No at 90¢ on a geopolitics market, making this a credible follow despite the modest size and only one signal.
$1,751Wallet win rate: 78%Score: 4.0 - Profitable macro event trader
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with nearly $1M in profit bought Yes at 25¢ during a major volume spike, making this a credible thesis-driven political trade worth surfacing.
$5,873Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 3.0 - Profitable macro news trader
A highly active and profitable cross-market trader with nearly $1.0M in realized profit bought Yes at 46¢ in a fast-moving geopolitics market.
$4,115Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 3.0 - Proven macro trader fading Yes
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with 888 resolved bets sold Yes at 37¢, which translates to buying No at 63¢ on a politically relevant market with strong recent momentum.
$3,478Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 1.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$16,222 · 2 markets · 5 alerts · 64% wins
- 0x4133f8…ea5d$1,751 · 1 market · 1 alert · 78% wins
- 0xe73874…df65$1,717 · 1 market · 1 alert · 64% wins
FAQs
What are the odds Trump agrees to Iranian demands in April?
The event odds come from the combined Polymarket pricing of the child markets: whether the U.S. agrees to Iranian uranium enrichment and whether it agrees to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. Check the live market prices for the current implied probabilities.
What outcomes are being traded in this Polymarket event?
There are two child markets: one on whether Trump agrees to continued Iranian enrichment of uranium, and one on whether Trump agrees to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by the April 2026 resolution deadline.
What is smart money doing on this Iran-Trump market?
PolySpotter has tracked $25,352 in smart money across 8 signals. Recent alerts include a $1M-profit event trader, a sharp cluster buying Yes, and profitable macro traders including 72% and 87% win-rate bettors, with at least one macro trader fading Yes.
When does this event resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve based on whether the qualifying U.S. agreements occur by April 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, according to the market rules.
What counts as the U.S. agreeing to Iranian uranium enrichment?
For the enrichment market, a Yes resolution requires U.S. acceptance of Iran enriching, or having the right to enrich, any amount of uranium for any future period. Agreements with limits, monitoring, caps, or other terms can still qualify.