Part of: Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg Train Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,812.
Categories: Ukraine, Politics, World, Geopolitics, Russia Capture, Ukraine Map
Notable Trades
New wallet backs No
A brand-new wallet placed a meaningful $4.7k No bet on a moderately thin war-resolution market, making the fresh conviction worth monitoring despite no track record.
- A wallet created about 1 hour earlier put $4.7k on No in its first flagged trade.
- The bet is sizable versus about $10k in market liquidity, suggesting real conviction rather than a small test.
- Entry at 79¢ means the bettor is backing the 80% side after Yes has drifted down over the past week.
$4,732 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable conflict-market bettor
A profitable 150-bet wallet is adding a meaningful No position on a low-volume Russia capture market, with correlated positioning across the same event.
- This bettor has a strong 150-bet record, winning 67% and up about $9K lifetime.
- The $4K No buy was 2.7x the market’s 24-hour volume, a large move for a quiet market.
- They are also positioned across another related market, suggesting a broader thesis.
$4,049 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
New wallet buying thin YES
A repeat-flagged new wallet is taking a meaningful Yes position in a thin, wide-spread Ukraine war market where informed edge is plausible.
- A new wallet has now made $2.0k in flagged bets, including $1.0k on Yes here.
- The market is thin, with only $3.2k of liquidity and a wide 5¢ spread, so this is a meaningful position.
- Entry at 33¢ implies the bettor sees upside versus current Yes odds around 34%.
$1,031 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0x15af...9e32 — Yes, $8,551
- 0x129d...7d2d — Yes, $8,405 (57% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Yes, $3,000 (59% win rate)
- 0xa0c5...cf60 — Yes, $2,798
- 0x55db...2031 — Yes, $2,000 (55% win rate)
- 0xfffe...4e6c — Yes, $1,164
- 0x0122...159c — Yes, $676
- 0x87cd...2fa9 — Yes, $670
- 0xa96a...dd9f — Yes, $623
- 0xab01...881a — Yes, $606
Related Theses
Russia won't fully capture Chasiv Yar
Covers 1 related market
Russia won't capture Rai-Oleksandrivka
Covers 1 related market
Russia will not capture Lyman
Covers 2 related markets
Russia captures Vodianske by year-end
Covers 1 related market
Russia won’t capture Kostyantynivka
Covers 2 related markets
Russia won't capture Dobropillia
Covers 1 related market
Kostyantynivka dates are mispriced
Covers 2 related markets
Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold
Covers 3 related markets
