Part of: Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

This Polymarket market asks whether Russia will capture the Kostyantynivka railroad station on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on the ISW map: if any part of the train station icon is shaded red by the deadline, the market resolves “Yes”; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $4,049 in smart money activity, including one recent signal from a profitable conflict-market bettor buying thin YES liquidity.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg Train Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,080.

Categories: Ukraine, Politics, World, Geopolitics, Russia Capture, Ukraine Map

Notable Trades

Profitable conflict-market bettor

A profitable 150-bet wallet is adding a meaningful No position on a low-volume Russia capture market, with correlated positioning across the same event.

  • This bettor has a strong 150-bet record, winning 67% and up about $9K lifetime.
  • The $4K No buy was 2.7x the market’s 24-hour volume, a large move for a quiet market.
  • They are also positioned across another related market, suggesting a broader thesis.

$4,049 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

New wallet buying thin YES

A repeat-flagged new wallet is taking a meaningful Yes position in a thin, wide-spread Ukraine war market where informed edge is plausible.

  • A new wallet has now made $2.0k in flagged bets, including $1.0k on Yes here.
  • The market is thin, with only $3.2k of liquidity and a wide 5¢ spread, so this is a meaningful position.
  • Entry at 33¢ implies the bettor sees upside versus current Yes odds around 34%.

$1,031 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0x8f69...7df1 Yes, $41,281 (69% win rate)
  2. 0x129d...7d2d Yes, $8,405 (57% win rate)
  3. 0x8d14...4987 Yes, $7,865 (83% win rate)
  4. 0xc5a3...883a No, $7,858 (51% win rate)
  5. 0xa0b6...3961 No, $7,763 (61% win rate)
  6. 0xb26c...0eb0 No, $7,619 (60% win rate)
  7. 0xc932...e6a5 No, $7,170 (66% win rate)
  8. 0x15af...9e32 Yes, $5,976
  9. 0x8fa0...72d6 No, $5,340
  10. 0x6261...2e11 No, $5,246 (91% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

Kostyantynivka dates are mispriced

Covers 2 related markets

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

12dWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?$5,080 tracked2 signalsUkrainePoliticsWorldGeopoliticsRussia CaptureUkraine Map
Yes
31¢
No
69¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg Train Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

Price History — “No
83¢
70¢
57¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

33d ago

$4,049 on No at 66¢

66¢69¢3¢

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

44d ago

$1,031 on Yes at 33¢

33¢31¢2¢

Related Theses