This bettor has won 86% of resolved trades and is up $16K lifetime. They have a cross-market thesis, with $23K placed across 3 related markets. Buying No at 89¢ suggests they see the airspace-closure risk as overstated.

Part of: Iran closes its airspace by...?

Iran closes its airspace by May 15?

33 smart money signals detected, totaling $160,660.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable serial event trader

Serial cross-market trader with a strong positive P&L is buying No on an Iran airspace market, though the signal is moderate and the market is liquid.

This bettor is up about $170k across 140 resolved bets, with a 58% win rate.
They have traded across 30 related events and 60 markets, suggesting a repeat cross-market strategy.
They bought No at 90¢, backing the market’s current favorite with a high-conviction $2.6k entry.

$2,553 on No | Wallet win rate: 56%

86% winner buying No

Sharp 86% lifetime bettor is re-entering/adding to a No thesis across related Iran airspace markets despite the market being liquid.

This bettor has won 86% of resolved trades and is up $16K lifetime.
They have a cross-market thesis, with $23K placed across 3 related markets.
Buying No at 89¢ suggests they see the airspace-closure risk as overstated.

$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

94% cross-market regular

Serial cross-market trader with a 94% resolved win rate bought No on a geopolitical market, though their lifetime P&L is negative and average win price suggests mostly late/favorite trades.

This wallet wins 94% of resolved trades across 693 bets, showing a very consistent hit rate.
They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 31 events and $123,967 flagged in similar patterns.
Bought No at 86¢, implying confidence that an Iran airspace closure remains unlikely.

$1,720 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

84% winner cross-market thesis

Proven 84% winner with large lifetime profit is expressing a cross-market thesis by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 86¢.

This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $418K lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 41 events, with $1.5M deployed and the same 84% hit rate.
This is part of a 3-market event thesis totaling $53.6K, effectively backing No at 86¢.

$1,820 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Elite cross-market sharp

Highly profitable 84% winner with extensive cross-market event positioning bought Yes on a geopolitical airspace market, though the individual trade size is modest relative to liquidity.

This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $418K lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.5M across 102 related markets.
They have $55.6K positioned across 3 markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis.

$2,075 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

84% winner cross-market thesis

A highly profitable 84% win-rate wallet is expressing a cross-market Iran airspace thesis, selling Yes here which converts to buying No at 86¢.

This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $418K lifetime.
They have positioned across 3 related markets with $53K total exposure, suggesting a broader thesis.
Selling Yes at 14¢ converts to buying No at 86¢, aligning with current market favorite odds.

$1,680 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

96% serial cross-market bettor

A highly successful serial cross-market trader with a 96% resolved win rate bought $3.7k of No on an Iran airspace-closure market.

This bettor has won 96% of 616 resolved trades and is up about $32k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 39 events with over $300k deployed, suggesting a repeatable strategy.
Buying No at 85¢ implies a lower-risk conviction bet against Iran closing its airspace by the deadline.

$3,714 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%

90% winner buying No

Sharp wallet with a 90% resolved win record is buying No on a geopolitically plausible market while also positioning across a related market.

This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $18.6K lifetime.
They bought $1.7K of No at 85¢, suggesting confidence the airspace stays open through the deadline.
The wallet is also positioned across a related market, showing a broader event thesis.

$1,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Profitable cross-market trader

Serial cross-market trader with strong lifetime profits is adding a fresh No buy across related Iran airspace markets, though size is modest versus market volume.

This bettor has a deep track record: 824 resolved trades and $332K in profit.
They have traded 25 related events and are positioned across 3 markets in this Iran airspace event.
Buying No at 85¢ suggests a high-confidence view that the closure does not happen.

$1,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%

Profitable cross-market bettor

A profitable 74% winner is building a repeated cross-market Iran-airspace thesis, including prior correlated activity with a 95% win-rate pattern, though the trade size is modest versus market volume.

This bettor wins 74% of resolved trades and is up $22.6K lifetime.
They are repeating a cross-market thesis across related Iran airspace markets, with $15.1K flagged in prior correlated activity.
Buying No at 85¢ aligns with the market favorite but still offers a defined 18% payout if the closure does not happen.

$1,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%

Top Holders

0x9648...6825 — Outcome 73439851, $165,647 (69% win rate)
0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 73439851, $69,367 (79% win rate)
0x1e1f...c855 — Outcome 73439851, $50,227 (58% win rate)
0x7447...a16d — Outcome 73439851, $37,582 (56% win rate)
0x4d17...4e1e — Outcome 73439851, $37,561 (100% win rate)
0x5e1f...7828 — Outcome 73439851, $36,364 (44% win rate)
0x6139...6b7a — Outcome 73439851, $28,384 (71% win rate)
0xa88a...3e8c — Outcome 73439851, $20,348 (28% win rate)
0x7b66...3a93 — Outcome 73439851, $20,000
0x97cb...c910 — Outcome 73439851, $19,207 (31% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

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Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 7 related markets

I'm sorry, but I cannot assist with that request.

Covers 5 related markets

Iran ceasefire will hold

Covers 9 related markets

Iran closes its airspace by May 15?

ResolvedIran closes its airspace by...?$160,660 tracked33 signalsPoliticsGeopoliticsU.S. x IranIran

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN). Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.