Part of: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
This Polymarket market asks whether IMF Portwatch will report a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz on any date by July 31, 2026. It covers major commercial ship categories including tankers, container ships, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, and general cargo, and resolves “Yes” as soon as the Portwatch threshold is published. PolySpotter is tracking $11,288 in smart money activity across 4 signals for this market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
9 smart money signals detected, totaling $30,626.
Categories: Strait of Hormuz, Economy, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, U.S. x Iran, ships, Iran, Oil, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Profitable 78% bettor fading Yes
Sharp-wallet override: this trader has a 78% record across 41 resolved bets with positive lifetime P&L and is effectively buying No at 57¢.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $25.4K lifetime.
- The trade is effectively a No buy at 57¢, against a market currently pricing No near 57%.
- This is a modest $2.7K position, but the wallet’s track record makes even a weak alert worth following.
$2,688 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Profitable 78% winner
Surfaced due to sharp-wallet override: this bettor has a 78% resolved win rate and +$25k lifetime P&L despite the alert's weak standalone signal.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $25k lifetime.
- They are buying Yes at 43¢, implying they see better odds than the current market.
- This wallet has been flagged before and is making another meaningful $2.1k position.
$2,150 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Profitable 78% winner
Surface despite the weak detector because this wallet has a strong resolved-bet record and is adding $4.3k to Yes at 43¢.
- This bettor has won 78% of 41 resolved bets and is up $25.4k lifetime.
- They bought $4.3k of Yes at 43¢, a fresh conviction bet on a liquid market.
- Entry at 43¢ implies roughly 2.3x upside if traffic normalizes by the deadline.
$4,300 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Profitable 78% winner
Surface despite the weak trigger because this wallet has a 78% resolved win rate and $25k profit, making the Yes buy a plausible sharp follow.
- This bettor has won 78% of 41 resolved bets and is up $25.4k lifetime.
- They bought $2.15k of Yes at 43¢ on a geopolitical shipping market where informed views are plausible.
- Entry at 43¢ pays about 2.3x if the Strait traffic threshold is reached.
$2,150 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Profitable serial event trader
A highly experienced cross-market trader with a 70% resolved win rate and $255k lifetime profit is buying Yes at 44¢ on a geopolitics/shipping market where informed views are plausible.
- This bettor has won 70% of 415 resolved bets and is up $255k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 88 events and $1.6M of flagged positioning.
- Entry at 44¢ implies they see meaningful upside versus the current near-even market.
$6,088 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable serial macro trader
Surfacing because this is a highly experienced serial cross-market trader with 896 resolved bets and $133k lifetime profit buying No on a geopolitical shipping market.
- This bettor has a large track record: 896 resolved bets, 68% wins, and $133k lifetime profit.
- They specialize in cross-market themes, with 27 events and $192k flagged across related markets.
- Buying No at 55¢ suggests they think Hormuz traffic will stay below the IMF Portwatch threshold.
$1,925 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
86% serial cross-market trader
A highly experienced cross-market bettor with an 86% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is effectively buying No on this Hormuz traffic market.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades across 1,087 markets and is up $53,573 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 142 events with over $1.1M flagged in related positioning.
- Selling Yes at 46¢ is equivalent to buying No at 54¢, betting traffic will not meet the recovery threshold by July 31.
$3,059 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Serial cross-market trader with a large profitable history is effectively buying Yes on Hormuz traffic normalization via a No sale.
- This bettor has a long track record: 68% wins across 895 resolved bets and $133k lifetime profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $191k deployed across 38 markets in 27 events.
- Selling No at 52¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 48¢, slightly above the current displayed Yes price.
$1,059 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
86% serial macro bettor
Serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought a meaningful Yes position on the Hormuz traffic market.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $53.6k lifetime.
- They have traded across 141 events and 222 markets, suggesting a broad repeatable edge.
- A $7.2k buy at 46¢ implies they see Yes as meaningfully underpriced.
$7,208 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Top Holders
- 0x0c0e...434e — No, $32,491 (63% win rate)
- 0x162f...798d — Yes, $23,836 (70% win rate)
- 0x33dc...bb81 — Yes, $20,000 (75% win rate)
- 0xb911...8bb6 — Yes, $17,623
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $17,605 (69% win rate)
- 0xb69b...aa30 — Yes, $15,456
- 0xd3ec...6603 — No, $14,000 (58% win rate)
- 0xe738...df65 — No, $13,610 (64% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $8,536 (47% win rate)
- 0xa10b...8ec6 — Yes, $8,449 (60% win rate)
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