Part of: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

This prediction market asks whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31, 2026, resolving Yes if IMF Portwatch reports a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls for any eligible date. The market focuses on reported arrivals of container, dry bulk, ro-ro, general cargo, and tanker ships, making it a data-driven gauge of regional shipping disruption and recovery. PolySpotter is tracking $1,375 in smart money and 1 signal on this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

11 smart money signals detected, totaling $45,152.

Categories: Strait of Hormuz, Economy, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, U.S. x Iran, ships, Iran, Oil, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

3-wallet YES surge

Three wallets bought $13.1k of Yes into a huge volume spike on a geopolitically sensitive shipping market, with two profitable high-volume bettors participating.

  • Three wallets bought $13.1k of Yes within minutes, all taking the same side.
  • Trading volume spiked 342x above the market’s usual pace, suggesting fresh attention before the deadline.
  • Two of the buyers have meaningful histories: one is up $131k lifetime and another is up $50k across 1,100 resolved bets.

$13,151 on Yes

Profitable serial event trader

A highly experienced cross-market trader with $197k lifetime profit is buying No at 55¢ on a plausible geopolitical logistics market.

  • This bettor is up $197k across 1,460 resolved markets.
  • They have traded 153 event clusters, suggesting a repeatable cross-market research process.
  • Entry at 55¢ implies they see normal traffic by July 31 as less likely than the market expects.

$1,375 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%

Profitable 78% bettor fading Yes

Sharp-wallet override: this trader has a 78% record across 41 resolved bets with positive lifetime P&L and is effectively buying No at 57¢.

  • This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $25.4K lifetime.
  • The trade is effectively a No buy at 57¢, against a market currently pricing No near 57%.
  • This is a modest $2.7K position, but the wallet’s track record makes even a weak alert worth following.

$2,688 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%

Profitable 78% winner

Surfaced due to sharp-wallet override: this bettor has a 78% resolved win rate and +$25k lifetime P&L despite the alert's weak standalone signal.

  • This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $25k lifetime.
  • They are buying Yes at 43¢, implying they see better odds than the current market.
  • This wallet has been flagged before and is making another meaningful $2.1k position.

$2,150 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 62%

Profitable 78% winner

Surface despite the weak detector because this wallet has a strong resolved-bet record and is adding $4.3k to Yes at 43¢.

  • This bettor has won 78% of 41 resolved bets and is up $25.4k lifetime.
  • They bought $4.3k of Yes at 43¢, a fresh conviction bet on a liquid market.
  • Entry at 43¢ implies roughly 2.3x upside if traffic normalizes by the deadline.

$4,300 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 62%

Profitable 78% winner

Surface despite the weak trigger because this wallet has a 78% resolved win rate and $25k profit, making the Yes buy a plausible sharp follow.

  • This bettor has won 78% of 41 resolved bets and is up $25.4k lifetime.
  • They bought $2.15k of Yes at 43¢ on a geopolitical shipping market where informed views are plausible.
  • Entry at 43¢ pays about 2.3x if the Strait traffic threshold is reached.

$2,150 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 62%

Profitable serial event trader

A highly experienced cross-market trader with a 70% resolved win rate and $255k lifetime profit is buying Yes at 44¢ on a geopolitics/shipping market where informed views are plausible.

  • This bettor has won 70% of 415 resolved bets and is up $255k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 88 events and $1.6M of flagged positioning.
  • Entry at 44¢ implies they see meaningful upside versus the current near-even market.

$6,088 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%

Profitable serial macro trader

Surfacing because this is a highly experienced serial cross-market trader with 896 resolved bets and $133k lifetime profit buying No on a geopolitical shipping market.

  • This bettor has a large track record: 896 resolved bets, 68% wins, and $133k lifetime profit.
  • They specialize in cross-market themes, with 27 events and $192k flagged across related markets.
  • Buying No at 55¢ suggests they think Hormuz traffic will stay below the IMF Portwatch threshold.

$1,925 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

86% serial cross-market trader

A highly experienced cross-market bettor with an 86% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L is effectively buying No on this Hormuz traffic market.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades across 1,087 markets and is up $53,573 lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 142 events with over $1.1M flagged in related positioning.
  • Selling Yes at 46¢ is equivalent to buying No at 54¢, betting traffic will not meet the recovery threshold by July 31.

$3,059 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Serial cross-market trader with a large profitable history is effectively buying Yes on Hormuz traffic normalization via a No sale.

  • This bettor has a long track record: 68% wins across 895 resolved bets and $133k lifetime profit.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, with $191k deployed across 38 markets in 27 events.
  • Selling No at 52¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 48¢, slightly above the current displayed Yes price.

$1,059 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $33,273 (69% win rate)
  2. 0x0c0e...434e No, $32,491 (63% win rate)
  3. 0x162f...798d Yes, $24,419 (70% win rate)
  4. 0x33dc...bb81 Yes, $20,000 (75% win rate)
  5. 0x853c...bd03 Yes, $18,083 (53% win rate)
  6. 0xb69b...aa30 Yes, $15,456
  7. 0xd3ec...6603 No, $14,000 (63% win rate)
  8. 0xcca9...4c9f No, $14,000 (60% win rate)
  9. 0x12d6...f2a8 Yes, $13,202 (48% win rate)
  10. 0xe738...df65 No, $12,082 (65% win rate)

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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

71dStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$45,152 tracked11 signalsStrait of HormuzEconomyIran CeasefirePoliticsU.S. x IranshipsIranOilGeopolitics
Yes
46¢
No
55¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Price History — “No
63¢
57¢
50¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

1d ago

$13,151 on Yes at 47¢

47¢46¢1¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

1d ago

$1,375 on No at 55¢

55¢55¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

2d ago

$2,688 on No at 57¢

57¢55¢2¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

2d ago

$2,150 on Yes at 43¢

43¢46¢3¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

2d ago

$4,300 on Yes at 43¢

43¢46¢3¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

2d ago

$2,150 on Yes at 43¢

43¢46¢3¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

4d ago

$6,088 on Yes at 44¢

44¢46¢2¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

5d ago

$1,925 on No at 55¢

55¢55¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

6d ago

$3,059 on No at 54¢

54¢55¢1¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

6d ago

$1,059 on Yes at 48¢

48¢46¢2¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

6d ago

$7,208 on Yes at 46¢

46¢46¢

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