Part of: Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?
This Polymarket market asks whether the Houthis will no longer control Perim (Mayyun) Island in Yemen’s Bab el-Mandeb Strait by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The supplied metadata does not include current Yes or No odds; PolySpotter tracks $4,605 in smart-money activity and one signal for this market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen. “No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $30,245.
Categories: Iran, Yemen, Houthis, Politics, Geopolitics, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Bab el-Mandeb
Notable Trades
Three-wallet No buying surge
Three wallets added $23.7K to No in a 111x volume spike, creating a notable coordinated flow signal despite limited evidence of proven bettor edge.
- Three wallets bought No for a combined $23,720, with trades arriving in a burst.
- The market saw a 111x historical volume spike, and all three wallets are adding to existing No positions.
- They entered around 70¢, close to the current 71¢ No price; the wallets’ small track records do not establish a clear edge.
$23,720 on No
Profitable veteran buys No
A highly profitable, experienced wallet made a $1,920 No bet amid a sharp market price move, though its 72% win rate does not clearly beat its average winning odds.
- This bettor is up $1.34M across 654 resolved markets, despite a 72% win rate.
- They bought No at 34¢ with $1,920 as the market showed a sharp price move.
- The wallet also positioned across two markets tied to this event, totaling about $3,900.
$1,920 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Profitable serial cross-market trader
A highly profitable, experienced trader made a $4.6k No bet in a quiet market, with repeat cross-market activity adding context.
- This bettor has a 71% win rate across 1,300 resolved bets and is up $1.21M lifetime.
- The $4,605 No bet is more than twice the market’s 24-hour volume.
- They have positioned across 59 events and 86 markets, with activity on another market in this event.
$4,605 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
Related Theses
Iran deal lands in May
Covers 4 related markets
Iran closes airspace after May 8
Covers 3 related markets
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
Covers 3 related markets
Israel-Iran peace deal happens
Covers 1 related market
Blockade persists through June
Covers 3 related markets
IAEA inspections won't happen
Covers 1 related market
Hormuz traffic normalizes by June
Covers 1 related market
Likud avoids 25-29 seats
Covers 1 related market