Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
This Polymarket market asks whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire will remain in effect through August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. It resolves Yes if no qualifying military action occurs between the countries; the page currently tracks $1,200 in smart money across one signal, including activity on both Yes and No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
9 smart money signals detected, totaling $46,889.
Categories: Israel Election, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
84% winner scaling into Yes
A profitable serial cross-market trader with an 84% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position at 78%, though the price offers only modest apparent edge.
- This bettor has won 84% of 32 resolved trades and is up $32,765 lifetime.
- They are adding to an existing Yes position while holding positions across three markets in this event.
- The 78¢ entry is supported by strong recent momentum, with Yes up 11.5% in a day and 23.5% in a week.
$1,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
Seven-wallet Yes cluster with sharp bettor
Seven wallets committed nearly $20,000 to Yes, including a profitable 88% win-rate bettor, while the market rose 14.5% over the week.
- Seven wallets have put nearly $20,000 behind Yes, with several adding to substantial existing positions.
- One bettor wins 88% of trades and is up $8,526, with a demonstrated edge over their average entry odds.
- Yes has climbed 14.5% in a week to 78%, corroborating the coordinated bullish positioning.
$19,951 on Yes
Six-wallet ceasefire accumulation cluster
Six linked wallets are accumulating Yes alongside a serial cross-market trader, creating a meaningful coordinated signal despite the trader's only moderate edge.
- Six wallets sharing a funder have put $5,427 behind Yes, indicating coordinated conviction.
- This wallet has traded across 37 events and 53 markets, with a 66% win rate and $89,300 reported profit.
- The market has risen 37% in a week, while this trader continues adding to an existing Yes position despite the recent pullback.
$10,389 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Experienced bettor adds to Yes
A bettor with 111 resolved positions and an 80% win rate is adding to a sizable Yes position in a geopolitically important market, though negative lifetime P&L tempers the signal.
- This bettor has won 80% of 111 resolved trades, providing a meaningful track record despite negative lifetime P&L.
- They are adding to a roughly $7,600 Yes position as the market has risen 23% in one day.
- The $2,650 purchase at 69¢ is a moderate-conviction signal in a liquid ceasefire market, not a thin-market gamble.
$2,650 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
Sharp bettor scaling into No
A proven bettor with an 80% win rate is adding to a No position on a geopolitical ceasefire market after a sharp move toward No.
- This bettor has won 80% of 127 resolved trades and earned nearly $200,000 in profit.
- The wallet added $2,653 to No at 53¢, increasing an existing $5,012 position as No moved to about 60%.
- No gained 13.5 percentage points in roughly five minutes, supporting the trader’s direction despite the market’s long time to resolution.
$1,654 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
85% winner scaling into Yes
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 85% win rate is adding to an existing Yes position despite the market already moving sharply higher.
- This bettor has won 85% of 46 resolved trades and is up $136,325 overall.
- They are adding $1,657 to an existing Yes position after already investing $5,727 at a 54¢ average entry.
- The market has risen 19% in one day, reinforcing the bettor’s bullish ceasefire thesis but leaving less room for error.
$1,657 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
92% winner backing No
A highly successful serial cross-market trader with a 92% win rate is selling Yes and signaling No across six related markets, though this appears partly to be position management.
- This bettor has won 92% of 74 resolved trades and is up $29,469 lifetime.
- They are positioning across six markets in this Israel-Iran event, with $11,294 committed and a 92% historical win rate.
- The trade converts to buying No around 56¢, although the wallet previously held and closed a Yes position in this market.
$1,309 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Sharp bettor scaling into No
A proven bettor with an 80% win rate is adding to a No position on a geopolitical ceasefire market after a sharp move toward No.
- This bettor has won 80% of 127 resolved trades and earned nearly $200,000 in profit.
- The wallet added $2,653 to No at 53¢, increasing an existing $5,012 position as No moved to about 60%.
- No gained 13.5 percentage points in roughly five minutes, supporting the trader’s direction despite the market’s long time to resolution.
$2,653 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
Six-wallet ceasefire accumulation cluster
Six linked wallets are accumulating Yes alongside a serial cross-market trader, creating a meaningful coordinated signal despite the trader's only moderate edge.
- Six wallets sharing a funder have put $5,427 behind Yes, indicating coordinated conviction.
- This wallet has traded across 37 events and 53 markets, with a 66% win rate and $89,300 reported profit.
- The market has risen 37% in a week, while this trader continues adding to an existing Yes position despite the recent pullback.
$5,427 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Top Holders
- 0xcb4c...6d64 — No, $82,175 (30% win rate)
- 0xc3db...0f98 — No, $73,433 (45% win rate)
- 0x162f...798d — Yes, $52,789 (67% win rate)
- 0x9592...a7b8 — No, $51,000 (73% win rate)
- 0x7f9e...3a0e — Yes, $45,449 (91% win rate)
- 0xc15b...38af — Yes, $43,140 (81% win rate)
- 0x6cd8...d98d — Yes, $36,988 (67% win rate)
- 0xd104...acef — Yes, $36,198 (89% win rate)
- 0x9d84...1344 — Yes, $35,898 (43% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — No, $30,625 (76% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 5 related markets
Ceasefire holds through August
Covers 11 related markets
Ceasefire by July 24, then reverses
Covers 3 related markets
Iran blockade ends August 23–31
Covers 5 related markets
Ceasefire by July, briefly lapses, returns
Covers 4 related markets
No Iran peace deal
Covers 2 related markets
Israel closes airspace in August
Covers 3 related markets
US-Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 6 related markets
No early June deal
Covers 2 related markets
Ceasefire breaks but later holds
Covers 3 related markets
