Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $4,318.
Notable Trades
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
A high-win-rate wallet made a market-dominating $4.3k bet on No in a very thin geopolitical market, suggesting conviction even though the composite score is modest.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades, with 17 wins in 19 bets.
- Their $4.3k buy was 635% of this market's 24-hour volume, so the position stands out in a quiet market.
- They bought No at 90¢ in a ceasefire market now trading 86¢, showing concentrated conviction on a low-probability Yes outcome.
$4,318 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
Top Holders
- 0xf67c...0d14 — No, $4,818 (89% win rate)
- 0x21ff...0d71 — Yes, $1,193
- 0x6f67...102c — Yes, $838
- 0xc662...b919 — Yes, $820
- 0x75d1...7a5f — Yes, $593
- 0xf027...3f04 — No, $536
- 0x429f...42f8 — No, $475
- 0xbacd...ab35 — Yes, $472 (49% win rate)
- 0xce4d...d0e2 — No, $405
- 0x215a...254c — Yes, $317
