Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether Israel and Hezbollah will officially agree to a ceasefire by April 30, 2026. It resolves Yes only if there is a publicly announced, mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement by the deadline, even if the ceasefire starts later. PolySpotter is currently tracking $5,117 in smart money on this market, with recent alerts highlighting a profitable bettor joining the Yes side.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.

11 smart money signals detected, totaling $43,457.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Lebanon

Notable Trades

Profitable bettor joins Yes cluster

Three wallets piled into Yes on a major geopolitics market, including a highly profitable bettor with 846 resolved trades and over $1.0M P&L, alongside a repeat new-wallet whale as the market has surged 40.7% in a week.

  • A bettor with 846 resolved trades and $1.0M profit joined two other wallets buying the same side.
  • One wallet is just 5 days old and has already triggered 5 large-bet alerts totaling $18.6k.
  • The market is moving fast with 24h volume of $432k and a 40.7% one-week jump, showing strong momentum behind Yes.

$5,117 on Yes

New whale repeating conviction

A 5-day-old wallet has already put nearly $18.6k across repeated flagged bets and is adding another $2k to Yes in a fast-moving geopolitical market, which is notable despite the lack of proven results yet.

  • This 5-day-old wallet has already triggered 5 large-bet alerts with about $18.6k flagged total
  • This is a fresh $2k buy on Yes at 46¢ in a real news-driven market that moved 39% in the last week
  • The bettor is entering near the current ask in a liquid market, suggesting genuine conviction rather than a random punt

$2,027 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 50%

Profitable geopolitical cross-market bettor

A proven profitable trader with a 75% win rate sold Yes, which translates to buying No at 55¢ in an active geopolitics market after a sharp recent rally.

  • This bettor has won 219 of 291 resolved trades and is up about $185k overall
  • They trade across 80 related markets and 58 events, suggesting a broad event-driven process rather than a one-off bet
  • Selling Yes at 45¢ is equivalent to buying No at 55¢ after this market jumped 36 points over the past week

$1,047 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

88% win-rate geopolitics bettor

A highly profitable cross-market trader with an 88% win rate and nearly $1M in profit just made a fresh $3k Yes bet into a major geopolitics market during an unusual volume surge.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $990k on Polymarket
  • They trade across 115 markets in 69 events, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
  • They bought Yes at 53¢ during a 67x volume spike, showing conviction before the market fell to 40¢

$3,043 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

88% win-rate macro bettor

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 88% win rate bought Yes at 30¢ in a major geopolitics market, making this a credible copy-trade signal despite the market's strong liquidity.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $990k lifetime
  • They trade across 115 markets in 69 events, which points to a repeatable macro news edge rather than a one-off bet
  • Bought Yes at 30¢ while the market sits near 31¢, implying they see the ceasefire odds as meaningfully higher

$5,981 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

88% win-rate geopolitical bettor

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 88% win rate bought Yes at 27¢ after a sharp market drop, making this a credible contrarian signal worth surfacing despite the modest size.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $990k lifetime
  • They trade across 114 markets in 68 events, which points to a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
  • They bought Yes at 27¢ after the market fell 64% in a day, suggesting they see the selloff as overdone

$1,240 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

76% win-rate geopolitics bettor

A proven cross-market trader with a 76% win rate bought Yes at 39¢ in a fast-moving geopolitics market, making this a credible directional signal despite the modest size.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades across 290 markets and is up $183k lifetime
  • They bought Yes at 39¢ in a news-driven market that has already jumped 33 points over the past week
  • This wallet has traded 75 markets across 56 events for over $4.0M total, suggesting a repeatable event-trading edge

$1,261 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

Profitable geopolitical cross-market bettor

A proven profitable wallet with a 76% win rate bought Yes at 39¢ in a fast-moving geopolitics market, making this a credible directional signal despite the modest size.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up about $184k lifetime
  • They have traded 74 markets across 55 events, which suggests a repeatable event-trading process
  • Bought Yes at 39¢ while this market has surged 30 points in a week, signaling conviction in continued upside

$1,489 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

3-wallet geopolitical cluster

Three experienced wallets re-entered the same No side together after previously trading this market, adding coordinated conviction into a major geopolitics market during a sharp move higher.

  • Three active wallets all bought No within minutes, putting $7.2k behind the same view.
  • One wallet stands out with an 84% win rate across 43 resolved bets and joined this same-side push.
  • They re-entered around 61-68¢ after No jumped to 67%, showing continued conviction in a fast-moving market.

$7,179 on No

5-wallet ceasefire pile-in

Five wallets piled into Yes within minutes for over $10.7k on a major geopolitical market, and several of them have solid profitable histories, making this coordinated directional flow worth watching despite only one signal.

  • Five wallets all bought the same side within minutes, putting $10.8k behind Yes
  • Several of the buyers are proven profitable, including wallets up $230k and $99k lifetime
  • They entered around 46-47¢ while the market now sits near 44¢, showing conviction after a sharp 1-week move

$10,754 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0xde7b...5f4b Yes, $58,920 (88% win rate)
  2. 0xfc2f...10c7 Yes, $26,406 (88% win rate)
  3. 0xbaa2...2c73 No, $25,488 (66% win rate)
  4. 0xa204...bf99 Yes, $24,383
  5. 0x8f42...b88f No, $22,964 (58% win rate)
  6. 0xa591...9079 No, $21,246 (54% win rate)
  7. 0xbb31...0b4f Yes, $13,774 (59% win rate)
  8. 0xc851...cd2a No, $10,752 (51% win rate)
  9. 0x162f...798d Yes, $10,000 (69% win rate)
  10. 0x6634...a779 No, $9,782

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Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

20d$43,457 tracked11 signalsIranIsraelGeopoliticsIran CeasefireLebanon
Yes
49¢
No
51¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.

Price History — “No
99¢
73¢
48¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

5h ago

$5,117 on Yes at 47¢

47¢49¢2¢

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

5h ago

$2,027 on Yes at 46¢

46¢49¢3¢

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

6h ago

$1,047 on No at 55¢

55¢51¢4¢

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

7h ago

$3,043 on Yes at 53¢

53¢49¢4¢

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

19h ago

$5,981 on Yes at 30¢

30¢49¢19¢

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

20h ago

$1,240 on Yes at 27¢

27¢49¢22¢

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

1d ago

$1,261 on Yes at 39¢

39¢49¢10¢

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

1d ago

$1,489 on Yes at 39¢

39¢49¢10¢

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

1d ago

$7,179 on No at 68¢

68¢51¢17¢

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

6h ago

$10,754 on Yes at 46¢

46¢49¢3¢

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

8d ago

$4,318 on No at 90¢

90¢51¢39¢

Related Theses