Part of: Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

11 smart money signals detected, totaling $182,723.

Categories: World Elections, Elections, Global Elections, putin, Russia, World, Politics, International Election Props

Notable Trades

Profitable bettor reloading No

A profitable bettor with a 68% win rate and $69,450 lifetime profit made a fresh $51,263 No bet while positioning across two markets in the same event, though the prior identical position reduces novelty.

This bettor wins 68% of resolved trades and is up $69,450 lifetime.
They placed a concentrated $51,263 bet on No and committed $213,086 across two markets tied to the same event.
The wallet previously held the same No position at 83¢, so this appears to reinforce an established thesis rather than a new discovery.

$51,263 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Serial trader buys No into volume spike

A serial cross-market trader with a profitable long-term record bought No during a 250x volume spike, though the edge is moderate rather than exceptional.

A trader up $178,409 across 5,531 resolved bets placed $2,884 on No at an average 73¢.
The market saw a 250x historical volume spike, suggesting unusually strong attention around the No outcome.
The 62% win rate is only moderately compelling because this trader typically wins at relatively high prices.

$3,330 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Serial trader buys No into volume spike

A serial cross-market trader with a profitable long-term record bought No during a 250x volume spike, though the edge is moderate rather than exceptional.

A trader up $178,409 across 5,531 resolved bets placed $2,884 on No at an average 73¢.
The market saw a 250x historical volume spike, suggesting unusually strong attention around the No outcome.
The 62% win rate is only moderately compelling because this trader typically wins at relatively high prices.

$2,884 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

New whale scaling into Yes

A three-day-old wallet has repeatedly committed $40,000 to Yes while already holding an $89,000 position, coinciding with an extreme volume spike despite having no resolved track record.

A three-day-old wallet has deployed $40,000 across five Yes buys and already holds $89,109 more.
The trades represented 55.8% of 24-hour volume and arrived during a 681x historical volume spike.
This is a high-conviction but unproven bettor: the wallet has no resolved positions and its average entry is about 45.7¢.

$40,000 on Yes

New whale scaling into No

A repeat-betting wallet less than three hours old has committed over $23,000 to No in a relatively quiet market, though its lack of resolved history and earlier failed Yes bet reduce confidence.

A wallet created just 2 hours ago has repeatedly bet large, committing $23,000 to No while 24-hour market volume was only about $9,000.
The No position was opened around 86¢, near the current 84% market probability, so this is notable conviction rather than an obvious bargain.
The wallet has no resolved positions and previously bought Yes at 70¢, now priced near 16%, making the track record unproven.

$20,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

New whale scaling into No

A repeat-betting wallet less than three hours old has committed over $23,000 to No in a relatively quiet market, though its lack of resolved history and earlier failed Yes bet reduce confidence.

A wallet created just 2 hours ago has repeatedly bet large, committing $23,000 to No while 24-hour market volume was only about $9,000.
The No position was opened around 86¢, near the current 84% market probability, so this is notable conviction rather than an obvious bargain.
The wallet has no resolved positions and previously bought Yes at 70¢, now priced near 16%, making the track record unproven.

$23,296 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

75% win-rate sharp

Surfaced because a proven profitable wallet with a 75% record and strong edge is buying Yes on a political market.

This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $5.7K lifetime.
Their wins came at 47¢ average odds, suggesting they have beaten market expectations by a wide margin.
They bought Yes at 34¢, implying a roughly 3x payout if New People gains the most seats.

$2,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

Sharp bettor snagged 5¢ Yes

A proven profitable wallet with an 83% resolved win rate bought Yes, including a large 5¢ fill that is now marked around 33¢.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $311K lifetime.
They bought $5.2K of Yes, including a large fill at 5¢ before the market moved near 33¢.
The bet is on a liquid political market, so the edge appears to come from the wallet rather than thin-market noise.

$5,174 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

8-wallet linked cluster

Strong linked-wallet cluster and profitable wallet make the bearish flow worth watching, though this specific trade appears to close an existing Yes position.

Eight linked wallets funded by the same source have put about $5k behind this direction.
This wallet is up about $40k lifetime despite winning only 40% of resolved bets, suggesting its wins have been large.
This trade sells Yes at 32¢, equivalent to buying No at 68¢, but it may be closing a prior Yes position.

$3,303 on No | Wallet win rate: 40%

8-wallet linked cluster

Strong linked-wallet cluster and profitable wallet make the bearish flow worth watching, though this specific trade appears to close an existing Yes position.

Eight linked wallets funded by the same source have put about $5k behind this direction.
This wallet is up about $40k lifetime despite winning only 40% of resolved bets, suggesting its wins have been large.
This trade sells Yes at 32¢, equivalent to buying No at 68¢, but it may be closing a prior Yes position.

$1,245 on No | Wallet win rate: 40%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — No, $2,225,373
0x202d...369c — Yes, $484,635
0x4a2b...af20 — Yes, $160,000 (59% win rate)
0x202b...7ed7 — Yes, $151,090 (86% win rate)
0xfde6...7ed6 — Yes, $138,639 (70% win rate)
0x17a2...630b — Yes, $136,873 (89% win rate)
0x7bc1...8db4 — Yes, $100,000 (71% win rate)
0x73f6...3fa9 — Yes, $94,855
0x140b...8030 — Yes, $90,044
0xb3e8...3735 — Yes, $89,109

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?$182,723 tracked11 signalsWorld ElectionsElectionsGlobal ElectionsputinRussiaWorldPoliticsInternational Election Props

Yes

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Yes

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