What does the New People Russia election prediction market ask?

It asks whether New People (NL) will gain the most seats of any political party in Russia’s next State Duma election.

When is Russia’s next parliamentary election expected?

The election is scheduled for September 2026, according to the market description.

When does this Russia election market resolve?

If the result is not definitively known earlier, the market resolves by September 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET.

How is the winning party determined?

The market compares each party’s number of State Duma seats before and after the election. The party with the greatest gain wins; unresolved results settle to “Other.”

Where can I track smart money activity for this market?

PolySpotter tracks smart money signals and wallet activity for the market, including reported wallet clusters, whale positioning, and linked-wallet trades.

Part of: Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

This prediction market asks whether New People (NL) will gain more State Duma seats than any other party in Russia’s next parliamentary election, scheduled for September 2026. Current Yes/No prices were not included in the supplied data; the market resolves by September 30, 2027, based on the party gaining the most seats compared with its pre-election total, or to “Other” if results remain unresolved.

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

7 smart money signals detected, totaling $85,246.

Categories: World Elections, Elections, Global Elections, putin, Russia, World, Politics, International Election Props

Notable Trades

New whale scaling into No

A repeat-betting wallet less than three hours old has committed over $23,000 to No in a relatively quiet market, though its lack of resolved history and earlier failed Yes bet reduce confidence.

A wallet created just 2 hours ago has repeatedly bet large, committing $23,000 to No while 24-hour market volume was only about $9,000.
The No position was opened around 86¢, near the current 84% market probability, so this is notable conviction rather than an obvious bargain.
The wallet has no resolved positions and previously bought Yes at 70¢, now priced near 16%, making the track record unproven.

$20,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

New whale scaling into No

A repeat-betting wallet less than three hours old has committed over $23,000 to No in a relatively quiet market, though its lack of resolved history and earlier failed Yes bet reduce confidence.

A wallet created just 2 hours ago has repeatedly bet large, committing $23,000 to No while 24-hour market volume was only about $9,000.
The No position was opened around 86¢, near the current 84% market probability, so this is notable conviction rather than an obvious bargain.
The wallet has no resolved positions and previously bought Yes at 70¢, now priced near 16%, making the track record unproven.

$23,296 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

75% win-rate sharp

Surfaced because a proven profitable wallet with a 75% record and strong edge is buying Yes on a political market.

This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $5.7K lifetime.
Their wins came at 47¢ average odds, suggesting they have beaten market expectations by a wide margin.
They bought Yes at 34¢, implying a roughly 3x payout if New People gains the most seats.

$2,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

Sharp bettor snagged 5¢ Yes

A proven profitable wallet with an 83% resolved win rate bought Yes, including a large 5¢ fill that is now marked around 33¢.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $311K lifetime.
They bought $5.2K of Yes, including a large fill at 5¢ before the market moved near 33¢.
The bet is on a liquid political market, so the edge appears to come from the wallet rather than thin-market noise.

$5,174 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%

8-wallet linked cluster

Strong linked-wallet cluster and profitable wallet make the bearish flow worth watching, though this specific trade appears to close an existing Yes position.

Eight linked wallets funded by the same source have put about $5k behind this direction.
This wallet is up about $40k lifetime despite winning only 40% of resolved bets, suggesting its wins have been large.
This trade sells Yes at 32¢, equivalent to buying No at 68¢, but it may be closing a prior Yes position.

$3,303 on No | Wallet win rate: 40%

8-wallet linked cluster

Strong linked-wallet cluster and profitable wallet make the bearish flow worth watching, though this specific trade appears to close an existing Yes position.

Eight linked wallets funded by the same source have put about $5k behind this direction.
This wallet is up about $40k lifetime despite winning only 40% of resolved bets, suggesting its wins have been large.
This trade sells Yes at 32¢, equivalent to buying No at 68¢, but it may be closing a prior Yes position.

$1,245 on No | Wallet win rate: 40%

Linked wallets flip to Yes

Three wallets, including two linked by a shared funder, sold $30k of No into a major volume spike, effectively taking the Yes side at 28¢ on a political market.

Three wallets moved $30k the same way, with two linked by the same funder.
They are effectively buying Yes at 28¢, betting New People will gain the most seats.
Volume is 232x above normal, suggesting a sudden surge of attention on this outcome.

$30,028 on Yes

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — No, $733,272
0x140b...8030 — Yes, $90,044
0xfde6...7ed6 — Yes, $88,289 (67% win rate)
0x5d0f...f0ad — Yes, $59,694 (88% win rate)
0xbf01...859e — Yes, $33,575 (75% win rate)
0x9648...6825 — Yes, $30,073 (69% win rate)
0xa3ff...540e — Yes, $25,806 (85% win rate)
0xe22d...635d — Yes, $23,590
0x369f...873e — No, $23,120 (100% win rate)
0x2d26...07f4 — No, $18,255 (50% win rate)

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

36dWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?$85,246 tracked7 signalsWorld ElectionsElectionsGlobal ElectionsputinRussiaWorldPoliticsInternational Election Props

Yes

24¢

76¢

Yes

24¢

76¢

Price History — “No”

85¢

79¢

74¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction