80% win-rate contrarian

This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up nearly $5.9k on about $67k invested They bought Yes at 38¢ in a politics market that now trades at 15¢, showing a clear high-conviction view against the crowd The position is meaningful at $3.4k, though it came in a fairly active market rather than a thin one

Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?

ResolvedWill Vance visit the Middle East by..?$3,445 tracked1 signalU.S. x IranGeopoliticsPoliticsIranTrumpIran Ceasefire

If U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance visits the Greater Middle East between market creation and the listed date and 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the Greater Middle East refers to the region comprising Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of a listed country. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Vance or released by his verified social media accounts, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.