Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,828.
Categories: Economy, close, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Oil, Strait of Hormuz, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Trump
Notable Trades
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with $320k lifetime P&L is taking a $4k long-shot Yes position at 8¢, though the alert signal itself is modest.
- This bettor is up $320k lifetime across more than 1,100 resolved markets.
- They have traded 92 related event markets with nearly $1.9M in volume, suggesting a specialized cross-market strategy.
- Entry at 8¢ implies a high-upside long-shot bet if ship traffic spikes before May 31.
$4,026 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 55%
81% winner buying No
Surfaced because the wallet has a strong resolved track record despite only a weak low-activity signal, and is adding a $1.3k No bet in a relatively quiet market.
- This bettor has won 81% of resolved bets and is up $788 lifetime.
- They put $1.3k on No while the market saw only about $4k of volume in the last 24 hours.
- Entry at 88¢ suggests a high-confidence view that the ship threshold will not be reached.
$1,287 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
New repeat whale on No
A brand-new wallet with repeated large flagged bets is taking a fresh $2.5k No position against an 80-ship Strait of Hormuz threshold in a moderately liquid market.
- This wallet is only 1 hour old but has already placed 3 notable large bets totaling about $12.9k.
- The fresh $2.5k No buy is meaningful versus this market’s liquidity and backs the current 85¢ favorite.
- No has moved stronger today, with Yes down 10 percentage points over 24 hours.
$2,515 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable 3-hour new whale
A 3-hour-old wallet with early profits made a meaningful $3k Yes bet on a niche shipping-data market with recent upward momentum.
- This wallet is only 3 hours old but is already up $1,020 across 4 resolved bets.
- It put $3,000 on Yes at 23¢, a large bet relative to the market’s $3,447 liquidity.
- Yes is up 12 points in the last day, suggesting momentum behind the same thesis.
$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
Top Holders
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 12070319, $27,251 (82% win rate)
- 0x7ee7...17b0 — Outcome 12070319, $10,709 (56% win rate)
- 0x21f7...e19f — Outcome 12070319, $7,600 (50% win rate)
- 0x1b6d...2f1a — Outcome 12070319, $1,673 (68% win rate)
- 0xa9ed...0aed — Outcome 12070319, $1,524
- 0x0042...321e — Outcome 12070319, $1,365 (51% win rate)
- 0xe467...437f — Outcome 12070319, $1,250
- 0xc7d0...1f8a — Outcome 12070319, $1,199
- 0x4e2d...743d — Outcome 12070319, $1,053
- 0xe1a3...24ea — Outcome 12070319, $915 (12% win rate)
Related Theses
US-Iran talks by June
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Iran keeps airspace open
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Iran agreement announced imminently
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US-Iran peace deal imminent
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Early Iran surrender underpriced
Covers 2 related markets
