Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
9 signals across 4 markets · $24,092 tracked · resolves May 31, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether daily ship arrivals through the Strait of Hormuz reach the listed threshold before May 31, 2026, using IMF Portwatch data. Traders are pricing the odds that at least 80 qualifying ships transit the Strait on any single day, with PolySpotter currently tracking $3,000 in smart-money activity and one recent whale signal.
Markets (4)
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?4 signals · $10,828 tracked
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?1 signal · $7,246 tracked
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?3 signals · $4,263 tracked
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?1 signal · $1,755 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- 41-0 wallet flips bullish
A very strong 41-0 profitable wallet sold No, effectively taking the Yes side, with price impact and cross-market activity despite prior No exposure.
$7,246Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 7.0 - New repeat wallet buying NO
A 6-day-old repeat large bettor with early profit is adding to a No thesis as the market has moved sharply in that direction.
$1,028Wallet win rate: 68%Score: 5.5 - New repeat whale on No
A brand-new wallet with repeated large flagged bets is taking a fresh $2.5k No position against an 80-ship Strait of Hormuz threshold in a moderately liquid market.
$2,515Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 5.0 - Profitable 3-hour new whale
A 3-hour-old wallet with early profits made a meaningful $3k Yes bet on a niche shipping-data market with recent upward momentum.
$3,000Wallet win rate: 80%Score: 4.0 - Profitable new repeat whale
New repeat whale wallet with early profits is buying Yes into strong upward momentum on a data-driven shipping market.
$1,792Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 4.0 - Profitable new wallet fading rally
Profitable new repeat bettor is fading a sharp Yes rally by selling Yes at 69¢, equivalent to buying No at 31¢.
$1,443Wallet win rate: 83%Score: 4.0 - Profitable cross-market bettor
Positive-P&L cross-market bettor is buying Yes across related Strait of Hormuz transit thresholds, a plausible informed-shipping/geopolitics thesis despite modest trade size.
$1,755Wallet win rate: 71%Score: 3.0 - Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with $320k lifetime P&L is taking a $4k long-shot Yes position at 8¢, though the alert signal itself is modest.
$4,026Wallet win rate: 55%Score: 2.0 - 81% winner buying No
Surfaced because the wallet has a strong resolved track record despite only a weak low-activity signal, and is adding a $1.3k No bet in a relatively quiet market.
$1,287Wallet win rate: 84%Score: 1.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xf9c119…39e2$7,246 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0x68c24b…1711$4,026 · 1 market · 1 alert · 55% wins
- 0x8c66e2…44f3$3,235 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 83% wins
- 0xe4f669…d00e$3,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 80% wins
- 0xa44398…00c6$2,515 · 1 market · 1 alert · 67% wins
- 0x6bab66…0fe5$1,755 · 1 market · 1 alert · 71% wins
- 0x7a6c46…5048$1,287 · 1 market · 1 alert · 84% wins
- 0xf2f270…1762$1,028 · 1 market · 1 alert · 68% wins
FAQs
What are the odds that 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz in one day by May 31?
The live Polymarket odds reflect traders’ current estimate that IMF Portwatch will report at least 80 eligible ship arrivals through the Strait of Hormuz on any one day before the deadline.
What is the smart money doing on this Strait of Hormuz market?
PolySpotter has tracked $3,000 in smart-money activity across this event, including a recent signal from a profitable new whale wallet active within a short trading window.
How does this Strait of Hormuz prediction market resolve?
The market resolves Yes if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily Strait of Hormuz transit-call figure equal to or above 80 for any date from market creation through May 31, 2026. If that never happens, it resolves No.
Which ships count toward the transit total?
The count includes IMF Portwatch-reported arrivals for container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch are not counted.
Why are traders watching Strait of Hormuz ship traffic?
The Strait of Hormuz is a key route for oil and cargo flows, so shipping disruptions or surges can matter for energy markets, geopolitics, and Iran-related risk pricing.