Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,828.

Categories: Economy, close, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Oil, Strait of Hormuz, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Trump

Notable Trades

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with $320k lifetime P&L is taking a $4k long-shot Yes position at 8¢, though the alert signal itself is modest.

  • This bettor is up $320k lifetime across more than 1,100 resolved markets.
  • They have traded 92 related event markets with nearly $1.9M in volume, suggesting a specialized cross-market strategy.
  • Entry at 8¢ implies a high-upside long-shot bet if ship traffic spikes before May 31.

$4,026 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 55%

81% winner buying No

Surfaced because the wallet has a strong resolved track record despite only a weak low-activity signal, and is adding a $1.3k No bet in a relatively quiet market.

  • This bettor has won 81% of resolved bets and is up $788 lifetime.
  • They put $1.3k on No while the market saw only about $4k of volume in the last 24 hours.
  • Entry at 88¢ suggests a high-confidence view that the ship threshold will not be reached.

$1,287 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

New repeat whale on No

A brand-new wallet with repeated large flagged bets is taking a fresh $2.5k No position against an 80-ship Strait of Hormuz threshold in a moderately liquid market.

  • This wallet is only 1 hour old but has already placed 3 notable large bets totaling about $12.9k.
  • The fresh $2.5k No buy is meaningful versus this market’s liquidity and backs the current 85¢ favorite.
  • No has moved stronger today, with Yes down 10 percentage points over 24 hours.

$2,515 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Profitable 3-hour new whale

A 3-hour-old wallet with early profits made a meaningful $3k Yes bet on a niche shipping-data market with recent upward momentum.

  • This wallet is only 3 hours old but is already up $1,020 across 4 resolved bets.
  • It put $3,000 on Yes at 23¢, a large bet relative to the market’s $3,447 liquidity.
  • Yes is up 12 points in the last day, suggesting momentum behind the same thesis.

$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

Top Holders

  1. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 12070319, $27,251 (81% win rate)
  2. 0x7ee7...17b0 Outcome 12070319, $10,709 (56% win rate)
  3. 0x21f7...e19f Outcome 12070319, $7,600 (50% win rate)
  4. 0x1b6d...2f1a Outcome 12070319, $1,673 (68% win rate)
  5. 0xa9ed...0aed Outcome 12070319, $1,524
  6. 0x0042...321e Outcome 12070319, $1,365 (51% win rate)
  7. 0xe467...437f Outcome 12070319, $1,250
  8. 0xc7d0...1f8a Outcome 12070319, $1,199
  9. 0x4e2d...743d Outcome 12070319, $1,053
  10. 0xe1a3...24ea Outcome 12070319, $915 (12% win rate)

Related Theses

US-Iran talks by June

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Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 4 related markets

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Iran agreement announced imminently

Covers 6 related markets

US-Iran peace deal imminent

Covers 8 related markets

Early Iran surrender underpriced

Covers 2 related markets

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Covers 3 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

ResolvedWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$10,828 tracked4 signalsEconomycloseIranU.S. x IranOilStrait of HormuzHormuzGeopoliticsTrump

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Notable Trades

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

38d ago

$4,026 on Yes at 8¢

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

51d ago

$1,287 on No at 88¢

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

52d ago

$2,515 on No at 84¢

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

57d ago

$3,000 on Yes at 23¢

Related Theses