Part of: Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

11 smart money signals detected, totaling $21,175.

Categories: World, Brazil, Politics, Elections, Global Elections, International Election Props

Notable Trades

Proven bettor adding to Yes position

A highly profitable bettor with an 86% record is adding to an existing Yes position at 31¢ on a long-term election market.

  • This bettor has won 32 of 37 resolved bets and is up nearly $24,000.
  • They added $1,502 to an existing Yes position at 31¢, with about $9,570 already invested.

$1,169 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Proven sharp buying No, possibly hedging

A highly profitable bettor with an 86% win rate and strong historical edge bought No, though this may hedge a much larger existing Yes position.

  • This bettor has won 32 of 37 resolved bets and is up nearly $24,000.
  • They bought No at 65¢, but already hold a much larger Yes position in this market, so this may be a hedge rather than a standalone view.
  • No is trading near 64¢, so the entry is close to the current market price.

$2,093 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

A highly active, lifetime-profitable trader is adding to an existing No position, though the trade lacks clear evidence of an odds-adjusted edge.

  • This trader is up $217,698 across more than 11,800 resolved bets.
  • They added $1,360 to No, on top of an existing $2,300 position at the same price.
  • No is priced at 68¢, while the market’s Yes price has fallen 7 points in the past day.

$1,354 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

A highly active, lifetime-profitable trader is adding to an existing No position, though the trade lacks clear evidence of an odds-adjusted edge.

  • This trader is up $217,698 across more than 11,800 resolved bets.
  • They added $1,360 to No, on top of an existing $2,300 position at the same price.
  • No is priced at 68¢, while the market’s Yes price has fallen 7 points in the past day.

$1,012 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

A highly active, lifetime-profitable trader is adding to an existing No position, though the trade lacks clear evidence of an odds-adjusted edge.

  • This trader is up $217,698 across more than 11,800 resolved bets.
  • They added $1,360 to No, on top of an existing $2,300 position at the same price.
  • No is priced at 68¢, while the market’s Yes price has fallen 7 points in the past day.

$1,280 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Proven bettor adding to Yes position

A highly profitable bettor with an 86% record is adding to an existing Yes position at 31¢ on a long-term election market.

  • This bettor has won 32 of 37 resolved bets and is up nearly $24,000.
  • They added $1,502 to an existing Yes position at 31¢, with about $9,570 already invested.

$1,502 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

A highly active, lifetime-profitable trader is adding to an existing No position, though the trade lacks clear evidence of an odds-adjusted edge.

  • This trader is up $217,698 across more than 11,800 resolved bets.
  • They added $1,360 to No, on top of an existing $2,300 position at the same price.
  • No is priced at 68¢, while the market’s Yes price has fallen 7 points in the past day.

$1,202 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Three-wallet cluster adding to No

Three wallets aligned on No, including a long-time profitable trader adding to an existing No position, with the market price also moving lower.

  • Three wallets aligned on No for about $3,813, including two selling Yes at 32¢.
  • A trader with 11,817 resolved bets and $217,766 in profit added $1,360 to an existing No position at 68¢.
  • No has fallen 9% over the past day, consistent with the cluster’s direction.

$4,880 on No

Profitable serial cross-market trader

A highly active, lifetime-profitable trader is adding to an existing No position, though the trade lacks clear evidence of an odds-adjusted edge.

  • This trader is up $217,698 across more than 11,800 resolved bets.
  • They added $1,360 to No, on top of an existing $2,300 position at the same price.
  • No is priced at 68¢, while the market’s Yes price has fallen 7 points in the past day.

$1,360 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Profitable serial trader backs No

A proven cross-market trader with a 75% win rate and substantial lifetime profit bought No at 52%, with odds subsequently moving in that direction.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 135 resolved bets and is up $238,093 lifetime.
  • They bought No at 52¢; the market has since moved to 58¢ No.
  • The trader has positioned across 64 events, showing a sustained record of activity.

$1,239 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $698,205
  2. 0x7401...47a5 — Yes, $81,299
  3. 0x2344...6458 — Yes, $45,101 (25% win rate)
  4. 0x7c02...0f2d — Yes, $37,320
  5. 0x2f9d...deb3 — Yes, $31,402 (86% win rate)
  6. 0x5a21...9318 — Yes, $26,655 (65% win rate)
  7. 0x8806...2e83 — Yes, $25,034 (57% win rate)
  8. 0x4aeb...53bd — Yes, $22,927
  9. 0x3f4e...e6c7 — Yes, $15,769
  10. 0x310d...4dec — Yes, $13,411 (63% win rate)

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Bab el-Mandeb remains open

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Israel closes airspace in September

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Crude stays below $115

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Israel-Iran ceasefire holds through October

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Flávio Bolsonaro wins Brazil’s presidency

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Flávio beats Lula in 2026

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Iran ceasefire will hold

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Iran keeps airspace open

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Flávio Bolsonaro wins presidency

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Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory$21,175 tracked11 signalsWorldBrazilPoliticsElectionsGlobal ElectionsInternational Election Props
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Notable Trades

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?

2026-10-25 04:10 UTC

$1,169 on Yes at 31¢

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?

2026-10-25 03:56 UTC

$2,093 on No at 65¢

65¢→100¢↑35¢

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?

2026-10-21 18:16 UTC

$1,354 on No at 68¢

68¢→100¢↑32¢

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?

2026-10-21 17:10 UTC

$1,012 on No at 68¢

68¢→100¢↑32¢

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?

2026-10-21 00:01 UTC

$1,280 on No at 68¢

68¢→100¢↑32¢

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?

2026-10-18 11:36 UTC

$1,502 on Yes at 31¢

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?

2026-10-15 18:45 UTC

$1,202 on No at 68¢

68¢→100¢↑32¢

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?

2026-10-21 13:26 UTC

$4,880 on No at 68¢

68¢→100¢↑32¢

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?

2026-10-15 15:54 UTC

$1,360 on No at 68¢

68¢→100¢↑32¢

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?

2026-10-08 10:08 UTC

$1,239 on No at 52¢

52¢→100¢↑48¢

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?

2026-10-07 20:47 UTC

$4,084 on Yes at 38¢

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Bab el-Mandeb remains open
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Israel closes airspace in September
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Israel closes its airspace by …Israel closes its airspace by …Israel closes its airspace by …
Crude stays below $115
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Israel-Iran ceasefire holds through October
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Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…
Flávio Bolsonaro wins Brazil’s presidency
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Flávio beats Lula in 2026
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Iran ceasefire will hold
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Iran keeps airspace open
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Flávio Bolsonaro wins presidency
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Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the …Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva…