Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
31 signals across 3 markets · $92,866 tracked · resolves Oct 26, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Flávio Bolsonaro wins the second round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election by a margin of 4–8 percentage points of valid votes. PolySpotter has recorded one smart-money signal: a profitable serial trader adding to Yes; this activity is not a guarantee of the outcome.
Markets (3)
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?16 signals · $61,119 tracked
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?11 signals · $21,175 tracked
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?4 signals · $10,572 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Funded cluster betting against Yes
Eight wallets, including a proven high-performing bettor, sold Yes in a coordinated $28.6k cluster, equivalent to buying No, though some may be taking profits on existing Yes positions.
$28,579Score: 11.6 - Seven-wallet election-market cluster
Seven commonly funded wallets put $7,229 into Yes amid a 27.7x volume spike and a sharp upward price move, making the coordinated positioning notable despite the lead wallet's unexceptional win rate relative to its average winning price.
$7,229Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 8.9 - Seven-wallet election-market cluster
Seven commonly funded wallets put $7,229 into Yes amid a 27.7x volume spike and a sharp upward price move, making the coordinated positioning notable despite the lead wallet's unexceptional win rate relative to its average winning price.
$4,492Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 8.8 - Seven-wallet funded cluster
Seven linked wallets bought Yes, and the trader’s 89¢ entry is now priced at 98¢ after a sharp market move.
$1,172Wallet win rate: 66%Score: 8.7 - Cross-market election bettor
The 30-point Yes price jump and the wallet’s $21,374 of activity across four related election markets provide corroborating signals, though its long-term win rate is not clearly exceptional for its average winning price.
$1,660Wallet win rate: 67%Score: 7.1 - Sharp bettor adding to Yes position
A proven bettor with an 84% win rate and meaningful odds-adjusted edge added to an already substantial Yes position as the market price rose sharply.
$1,000Wallet win rate: 84%Score: 5.9 - Proven bettor with 3,659 resolved positions
A highly profitable bettor with 3,659 resolved positions is buying No, backed by a reported 35-point edge over average odds.
$2,200Wallet win rate: 95%Score: 5.6 - Proven cross-market bettor sells YES
A proven bettor with 139 resolved positions and a reported 39-point edge sold Yes, creating a defensible No-side copy trade.
$5,818Wallet win rate: 77%Score: 5.6 - Proven sharp with 82% wins
A highly profitable bettor with 1,727 resolved positions is buying Yes, supported by a consistent cross-market track record.
$1,375Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 5.4 - Proven sharp buying No, possibly hedging
A highly profitable bettor with an 86% win rate and strong historical edge bought No, though this may hedge a much larger existing Yes position.
$2,093Wallet win rate: 86%Score: 4.7
Top wallets in this event
- 0x122cb9…fbed$22,684 · 3 markets · 16 alerts · 67% wins
- 0xe23495…304a$12,892 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 66% wins
- 0x524db8…4495$7,056 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 77% wins
- 0x2f9da7…deb3$4,764 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 86% wins
- 0x88c491…129a$4,084 · 1 market · 1 alert · 89% wins
- 0x9aeb53…2729$3,352 · 1 market · 1 alert · 67% wins
- 0xe8c4d6…395d$2,200 · 1 market · 1 alert · 95% wins
- 0xc7e53a…2d3a$1,375 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
- 0x909611…5984$1,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 84% wins
FAQs
What outcome is traded in the Brazil election margin market?
The listed market asks whether Flávio Bolsonaro will win the 2026 presidential runoff by 4–8 percentage points, measured as the difference in valid-vote shares between the top two candidates.
Where can I check the latest Brazil election odds?
Check the Polymarket event page for current odds. Prices can change as traders update their positions.
What is smart money doing in this event?
PolySpotter has tracked one signal, with a profitable serial trader adding to Yes. The event has $4,084 in tracked smart-money activity; that signal does not predict or guarantee the result.
When does the Brazil election market resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve by October 26, 2026 at 03:59 UTC. Resolution depends on the runoff result and the market’s stated rules.