Part of: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether Anthropic’s private-market valuation will reach or exceed $3.0 trillion by December 31, 2026. It resolves Yes if Nasdaq Private Market reports the threshold on any eligible trading day; otherwise, it resolves No on January 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

16 smart money signals detected, totaling $30,601.

Categories: Finance, Privates, llm, Anthropic, Dario Amodei, Claude, Big Tech, AI, Anthropic IPO, anthropic, Tech

Notable Trades

Sharp multi-market trader trimming Yes

A highly profitable bettor with a 79% win rate is reducing Yes exposure across five related markets, though the trade appears partly to be profit-taking rather than a fresh position.

  • This bettor has won 79% of 502 resolved trades and earned $566,307 while achieving a substantial edge over paid odds.
  • The wallet has positioned across five related markets with $48,296 traded, indicating a broader bearish view on this event.
  • The sell is partly profit-taking from a $170,111 Yes position bought at an average of 17¢, so the signal is weaker than a new No position.

$2,356 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Sharp multi-market trader trimming Yes

A highly profitable bettor with a 79% win rate is reducing Yes exposure across five related markets, though the trade appears partly to be profit-taking rather than a fresh position.

  • This bettor has won 79% of 502 resolved trades and earned $566,307 while achieving a substantial edge over paid odds.
  • The wallet has positioned across five related markets with $48,296 traded, indicating a broader bearish view on this event.
  • The sell is partly profit-taking from a $170,111 Yes position bought at an average of 17¢, so the signal is weaker than a new No position.

$2,987 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Sharp bettor cross-market thesis

Sharp profitable wallet with a 78% resolved-bet win rate is building a cross-market Anthropic valuation thesis, including a Yes buy here at 23¢.

  • This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $568K lifetime.
  • They have put $61K across 5 related Anthropic valuation markets, suggesting a broader conviction thesis.
  • Entry at 23¢ implies they see this as a high-upside bet despite a relatively tight 1¢ spread.

$1,110 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Sharp bettor cross-market thesis

Sharp profitable wallet with a 78% resolved-bet win rate is building a cross-market Anthropic valuation thesis, including a Yes buy here at 23¢.

  • This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $568K lifetime.
  • They have put $61K across 5 related Anthropic valuation markets, suggesting a broader conviction thesis.
  • Entry at 23¢ implies they see this as a high-upside bet despite a relatively tight 1¢ spread.

$1,341 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

91% win-rate bettor adds to Yes

A proven bettor with a 91% win rate and substantial edge is adding to an existing Yes position at 36¢ in a market that has risen 20.5% over the past week.

  • This bettor has won 20 of 22 resolved trades, with a $4,426 profit on $56,588 invested.
  • They are adding $1,061 to an existing Yes position at 36¢, despite the market’s recent 20.5% weekly rise.
  • The 36¢ entry implies roughly a 2.8x payoff if Anthropic reaches the $3T valuation threshold.

$1,061 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

Experienced trader rotating toward Yes

An experienced serial trader is reducing a No position as Yes momentum strengthens, though the trade is only moderately compelling because the wallet's high win rate comes from buying at very high average prices.

  • This wallet has 1,398 resolved trades and an 86% win rate, making its directional shift worth monitoring.
  • It sold No at 70¢ despite holding at a 78¢ average, suggesting a meaningful move away from the bearish side rather than routine profit-taking.
  • Yes has risen 15% over the past week and now trades near 30¢, while a second linked wallet is also involved.

$2,210 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Sharp bettor cross-market thesis

Sharp profitable wallet with a 78% resolved-bet win rate is building a cross-market Anthropic valuation thesis, including a Yes buy here at 23¢.

  • This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $568K lifetime.
  • They have put $61K across 5 related Anthropic valuation markets, suggesting a broader conviction thesis.
  • Entry at 23¢ implies they see this as a high-upside bet despite a relatively tight 1¢ spread.

$3,300 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

86% winner buying NO

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 86% win rate and $175k profit bought No on a long-dated Anthropic $3T valuation market.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $175k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 45 events, with the same 86% hit rate.
  • Buying No at 84¢ suggests confidence Anthropic will not reach a $3T private valuation by end-2026.

$1,112 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

Sharp bettor cross-market thesis

Sharp profitable wallet with a 78% resolved-bet win rate is building a cross-market Anthropic valuation thesis, including a Yes buy here at 23¢.

  • This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $568K lifetime.
  • They have put $61K across 5 related Anthropic valuation markets, suggesting a broader conviction thesis.
  • Entry at 23¢ implies they see this as a high-upside bet despite a relatively tight 1¢ spread.

$3,213 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

Profitable 79% winner

Sharp-wallet override: a profitable bettor with a 79% resolved-bet win rate bought No despite only a weak low-activity signal.

  • This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up about $18K lifetime.
  • Their $1.4K No buy was 78% of the market’s 24h volume, showing conviction in a quiet market.
  • Entry at 81¢ backs the view that Anthropic will not reach a $3T private valuation by end-2026.

$1,419 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9afd...574b Yes, $182,918
  2. 0x3a8a...7699 No, $147,948 (63% win rate)
  3. 0xbf0f...28ce Yes, $131,563
  4. 0xc6e9...0741 No, $111,269 (100% win rate)
  5. 0xbec7...5977 Yes, $39,542 (79% win rate)
  6. 0xa61e...0abd No, $26,000 (37% win rate)
  7. 0x2c89...5f1c Yes, $15,908 (66% win rate)
  8. 0x53c4...740b No, $14,046 (82% win rate)
  9. 0x8a4c...532b Yes, $13,679 (53% win rate)
  10. 0xb497...89b9 Yes, $13,179 (91% win rate)

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Anthropic valuation will reach $4T

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B8 wins Map 2

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Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

129dWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?$30,601 tracked16 signalsFinancePrivatesllmAnthropicDario AmodeiClaudeBig TechAIAnthropic IPOanthropicTech
Yes
28¢
No
72¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Price History — “No
76¢
69¢
61¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

3d ago

$2,356 on No at 72¢

72¢72¢

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

5d ago

$2,987 on No at 72¢

72¢72¢

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

5d ago

$1,110 on Yes at 23¢

23¢28¢5¢

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

7d ago

$1,341 on Yes at 23¢

23¢28¢5¢

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

8d ago

$1,061 on Yes at 36¢

36¢28¢8¢

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

9d ago

$2,210 on Yes at 30¢

30¢28¢2¢

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

52d ago

$3,300 on Yes at 23¢

23¢28¢5¢

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

53d ago

$1,112 on No at 84¢

84¢72¢12¢

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

56d ago

$3,213 on Yes at 23¢

23¢28¢5¢

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

57d ago

$1,419 on No at 81¢

81¢72¢9¢

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

61d ago

$2,420 on Yes at 23¢

23¢28¢5¢

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

61d ago

$2,394 on Yes at 23¢

23¢28¢5¢

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

62d ago

$1,921 on Yes at 23¢

23¢28¢5¢

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

68d ago

$1,348 on Yes at 23¢

23¢28¢5¢

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

69d ago

$1,010 on Yes at 23¢

23¢28¢5¢

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

97d ago

$1,400 on Yes at 10¢

10¢28¢18¢

Related Theses