Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
This Polymarket asks whether IMF Portwatch will report at least 80 daily ship transit calls in the Strait of Hormuz on any day before April 30, 2026. The market covers reported arrivals across container, dry bulk, ro-ro, general cargo, and tanker vessels, making it a closely watched proxy for shipping activity and regional geopolitical tension. It resolves to Yes the moment any qualifying day reaches 80 or more reported ships; otherwise it resolves to No at the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $7,103.
Categories: Economy, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Iran, Hormuz, close, Hormoz, Trump, Oil, Strait of Hormuz
Notable Trades
New whale in shipping market
A 13-day-old wallet is making another large, concentrated bet in a fast-moving geopolitics-linked shipping market, suggesting fresh conviction worth watching despite limited track record.
- A 13-day-old wallet just put $7.1k into Yes and has already been flagged twice for large early bets
- This single trade was 60% of the market's 24-hour volume in a market with a wide 11¢ spread, showing real conviction
- The market has surged 43 points in a day, so this bettor is leaning into strong momentum on a plausible information-driven topic
$7,103 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0x3298...355e — Yes, $10,658 (100% win rate)
- 0xcaf1...9ad1 — No, $5,307 (100% win rate)
- 0x7c9d...acff — No, $4,024
- 0x5464...af99 — No, $2,500
- 0x8495...b6e8 — Yes, $1,304 (50% win rate)
- 0x3594...dc58 — No, $1,270 (39% win rate)
- 0xf797...0bf2 — Yes, $1,139
- 0xcaab...24dd — No, $1,021
- 0x2aac...dfad — No, $1,015
- 0x353c...2af5 — No, $950
