Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?
8 signals across 4 markets · $19,985 tracked · resolves Apr 30, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether daily ship arrivals through the Strait of Hormuz reach key thresholds—20, 40, 60, or 80 ships—on any day by April 30, 2026. Traders are pricing the risk of elevated or disrupted maritime activity in one of the world’s most important oil shipping corridors, with PolySpotter tracking nearly $20K in smart money signals across the event.
Markets (4)
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?2 signals · $8,854 tracked
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?2 signals · $4,990 tracked
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?2 signals · $3,640 tracked
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?2 signals · $2,500 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Sharp bettor buying NO
A profitable sharp bettor with a 76% win rate and strong historical edge is taking a sizable No position across multiple related Hormuz markets, making this worth surfacing despite only one trade here.
$2,990Wallet win rate: 16%Score: 7.0 - 86% win-rate sharp bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 86% win rate bought No at 35¢, making this a credible sharp-trader signal despite the modest size.
$1,400Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 6.0 - Profitable contrarian macro bettor
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a large proven sample and $223k profit is betting No into a fast-rising Hormuz shipping market, making this a notable contrarian position to watch.
$1,144Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 6.0 - 94% win-rate bettor
A bettor with an exceptional 94% win rate and 646 resolved positions just made a meaningful $2,000 No bet that accounted for 62% of recent volume in this market.
$2,000Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 5.0 - Sharp bettor buying No
A proven sharp wallet with a strong edge and $167k realized profit is buying No at 26¢ in a news-sensitive shipping market that has recently moved higher, making this a followable contrarian bet.
$2,241Wallet win rate: 16%Score: 4.0 - Proven cross-market sharp
A highly active and profitable cross-market trader with a 67% win rate sold No here, which converts to a fresh Yes buy around 25¢ on a reasonably sized position.
$1,751Wallet win rate: 64%Score: 4.0 - New whale in shipping market
A 13-day-old wallet is making another large, concentrated bet in a fast-moving geopolitics-linked shipping market, suggesting fresh conviction worth watching despite limited track record.
$7,103Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 3.5 - 86% win-rate macro bettor
A highly profitable 86% win-rate bettor reopened a No position at 68¢ in this event after previously closing, suggesting renewed conviction across related shipping markets.
$1,356Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 3.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x32982a…355e$7,103 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0xacbca1…7cc3$5,231 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 16% wins
- 0xe73874…df65$2,895 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 64% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$2,756 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 75% wins
- 0x5fdf53…28a2$2,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 94% wins
FAQs
What are the odds that Strait of Hormuz ship transits hit these levels?
The live Polymarket odds show how traders price each threshold separately, from 20 ships on the low end to 80 ships on the high end. Higher thresholds generally imply a more extreme daily transit count and may trade at lower probabilities.
What is the smart money doing on this Hormuz transit market?
Recent PolySpotter alerts show multiple sharp bettors buying “No,” including high win-rate traders and a profitable contrarian macro bettor. That suggests some experienced traders are skeptical that the listed transit thresholds will be reached by the resolution date.
How does this Strait of Hormuz prediction market resolve?
The markets resolve based on IMF Portwatch data for daily “Arrivals of Ships” through the Strait of Hormuz. If the reported daily transit count equals or exceeds a listed threshold on any eligible date through April 30, 2026, that child market resolves “Yes”; otherwise it resolves “No.”
Why are traders watching Strait of Hormuz ship transits?
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for global energy shipping, so changes in transit activity can reflect geopolitical risk, oil market stress, or regional disruptions involving Iran and surrounding states.
Is this one market or several related markets?
This is an event hub covering four related Polymarket markets: whether 20, 40, 60, or 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30. Each threshold has its own odds and resolution outcome.