Part of: Brazil Presidential Election
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $971,780.
Categories: Politics, Macro Election 2, Main Election, Brazil, Global Elections, World Elections, World
Notable Trades
Profitable trader in funded cluster
A profitable, active trader is part of a seven-wallet funded cluster amid a major volume surge, though the alert’s buys on both outcomes make the directional signal unclear.
- Seven linked wallets account for about $78,000 of activity, alongside an unusually large volume spike.
- This trader has won 200 of 305 resolved bets and is up about $238,000 overall.
- The trader bought both Yes and No, so the activity is not a clear one-way thesis; Yes buys were entered at 88¢.
$61,027 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
5-wallet coordinated YES surge
Five wallets made coordinated YES bets totaling $9,597 amid a 10.7x volume spike, although the featured wallet's record does not establish a clear odds-adjusted edge.
- Five wallets bet YES, totaling $9,597 on the same outcome.
- Trading volume was 10.7 times its historical average, with 33 trades in the spike.
- The featured wallet has a large lifetime profit, but its 67% win rate does not clearly beat its average winning price.
$4,866 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Proven serial trader backs No
A highly profitable serial trader with 253 resolved bets and a strong historical edge invested $7,900 in No.
- This bettor has won 80% of 253 resolved bets and earned over $5 million.
- A serial cross-market trader with activity across 221 events is backing No with $7,900.
- No is currently priced at 79¢, with the market odds moving up 4 percentage points in the past day.
$7,900 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Proven bettor scaling into No
A profitable bettor with a 90% record is adding $33,009 to an already substantial No position on a liquid election market.
- This bettor has won 9 of 10 resolved trades and is up $128,079.
- They added $33,009 to No, on top of an existing $86,237 position.
- No was bought at 83¢, close to the current 82¢ odds.
$33,009 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable sharp adding to No
A profitable bettor with an 86% win rate and meaningful edge is adding to a large existing No position.
- This bettor has won 32 of 37 resolved bets and is up $23,996.
- They are adding $1,363 to an existing $57,978 No position at 77¢.
- Their historical average entry odds were 62%, well below their 86% win rate.
$1,363 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable bettor adds to Lula NO position
A proven, profitable bettor with an 86% win rate added $19,028 to an already large No position at 80¢.
- This bettor has won 32 of 37 resolved trades and is up nearly $24,000.
- They added $19,028 to an existing $44,709 No position, buying at 80¢.
$19,028 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Proven cross-market bettor favors No
A highly profitable bettor with a substantial long-term track record is selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 80¢.
- This bettor has won 81% of 1,202 resolved bets and earned about $720,000.
- They sold Yes at 20¢, equivalent to buying No at 80¢ on this election market.
- The wallet has traded across 413 events, with over $1.1 million in total trading volume.
$5,881 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
New wallet repeatedly backing No
A 10-day-old wallet has repeatedly made large bets totaling $14,220 and is adding to its No position, though it has no resolved track record.
- This 10-day-old wallet has flagged $14,220 in bets across five alerts.
- The $5,806 trade adds to an existing No position, showing continued conviction.
- The wallet has no resolved positions yet, so its track record is unproven.
$5,806 on No
Proven bettor adds heavily to No
The wallet added a substantial No position to an existing $30,000 holding, though its 93% win rate is less compelling against an 86% average winning entry price and it also bought Yes.
- The wallet added about $24,300 to No, on top of an existing $30,000 No position at a similar price.
- It has won 27 of 29 resolved bets, though its 86¢ average winning entry makes that record less exceptional than the win rate suggests.
- A smaller Yes purchase in this market points to mixed positioning and tempers the No conviction signal.
$28,230 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Proven bettor with four-wallet backing
A proven profitable bettor and three linked wallets are associated with roughly $55k of activity; the large purchase aligns with No at about 77¢, while the Yes sale appears to be profit-taking.
- This bettor has won 33 of 38 resolved positions and is up about $282k.
- Four wallets sharing a funder are associated with about $55k in activity around this election market.
- The Yes sale appears to take profit on an existing position; the large purchase points to No around 77¢.
$55,214 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $10,820,471
- 0x5a79...b0f2 — No, $250,000 (44% win rate)
- 0xfb51...742d — No, $106,043 (71% win rate)
- 0x30fc...510d — No, $100,000 (10% win rate)
- 0x2616...c6aa — No, $99,562 (90% win rate)
- 0x4e52...f342 — No, $76,914
- 0x5a21...9318 — No, $67,448 (65% win rate)
- 0x82e0...0779 — No, $59,975
- 0x8370...82e4 — No, $50,000
- 0x3d29...2408 — No, $47,840
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