Part of: South Carolina Special Senate Republican Primary: Runoff Margin of Victory
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff by 5–10%?
The special primary runoff election for the US Senate election in South Carolina is scheduled to be held on August 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the runoff of the South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,953.
Categories: Politics, Elections, Primaries, Republican Primary, August 25 Primaries, South Carolina Primary
Notable Trades
91% winner scaling into No
A highly profitable bettor with a 91% win rate added substantially to an existing No position before No surged from 50% to 98%.
- This bettor has won 91% of 45 resolved trades and is up $33,340 lifetime.
- They added $1,879 to an existing No position at 50¢, showing increased conviction in a market that later moved to 98% No.
- The trade helped precede a rapid 45-point surge in No, although much of the opportunity is now priced in.
$1,880 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Profitable serial trader flips to Yes
A highly experienced, profitable serial trader made a large contrarian Yes bet in a thin political market, although the subsequent collapse makes the trade more useful to study than blindly copy.
- This bettor has won 73% of 1,189 resolved trades and is up $1.09 million lifetime.
- The $1,705 Yes purchase at 50¢ was unusually large relative to recent volume, and the price then plunged to 6%.
- The wallet had previously closed a sizable No position, suggesting a deliberate flip in direction rather than routine position management.
$1,705 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
91% win-rate bettor adds to No
A proven 91% win-rate bettor with a substantial positive edge added roughly $3,368 to No in a rapidly repricing, thin market.
- This bettor has won 91% of 45 resolved trades and is up $33,340.
- They added about $3,368 to No at 50¢, reinforcing an existing $9,765 No position.
- No moved sharply higher in under five minutes in a relatively thin market, supporting the bettor’s direction.
$3,368 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $15,673
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Yes, $1,819
- 0x8f69...2923 — Yes, $1,817
- 0x07b9...0fbb — Yes, $456
- 0xd24b...ef76 — Yes, $384 (79% win rate)
- 0x5533...51ba — Yes, $201
- 0xb340...dbb1 — Yes, $70
- 0x24e8...4546 — Yes, $20
- 0x945a...a48c — Yes, $15
- 0xc989...aad8 — Yes, $12
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