Starmer out by May 31, 2026?

29 smart money signals detected, totaling $98,280.

Categories: Starmer, UK, keir, Grooming Gangs, Politics, World

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market bettor

Profitable wallet is building a $25.7k cross-market thesis across three related Starmer markets, buying No at 90¢ despite already large recent market movement.

This wallet has built a $25.7k position across 3 related markets, not just a one-off bet.
The bettor has won 12 of 18 resolved trades and is up $3.4k lifetime.
Buying No at 90¢ follows a sharp move, with Yes down 55.5% over the past week.

$2,250 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Profitable cross-market bettor

Experienced profitable cross-market trader is buying No after a sharp short-term move in a politically significant market.

This bettor is up $74k lifetime across more than 1,000 resolved trades.
They have a long cross-market pattern: 35 events, 59 markets, and $362k traded.
They bought No at 86¢ after a rapid 18-point move, suggesting a dip-buying thesis.

$5,848 on No | Wallet win rate: 55%

Serial cross-market bettor

Serial cross-market bettor with a long 70% hit-rate record is adding to a pro-Starmer-stays thesis amid a sharp move toward No, though lifetime P&L is slightly negative.

This bettor has traded 69 events and wins 70% of resolved bets across 1,135 outcomes.
They are buying No at 86¢ after a sharp one-day move toward Starmer staying in office.
The same wallet has positioned across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.

$1,290 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

Profitable cross-market bettor

Profitable, experienced wallet is backing No while also trading a broader five-market Starmer thesis, with price action moving sharply around the trade.

This bettor is up $813k across 237 resolved trades, showing a long profitable track record.
They are trading a broader thesis across 5 related markets, with over $30k in connected positioning.
Entry at 76¢ backs Starmer staying in office and implies a lower-risk 32% upside to resolution.

$3,535 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Profitable cross-market whale

Profitable high-volume political bettor is re-entering No after a sharp move while also positioning across multiple related Starmer markets.

This bettor is up $1.94M lifetime and has traded nearly $18M on Polymarket.
They are taking a broader Starmer thesis, with $30.9K spread across 5 related markets.
Buying No at 74¢ after a fast price drop suggests they see the move as overdone.

$6,844 on No | Wallet win rate: 40%

92% win-rate political trader

A highly experienced cross-market bettor with a 92% resolved win rate sold No, effectively buying Yes, as the market moved sharply toward Starmer leaving.

This bettor has won 92% of 608 resolved bets and is up $25K lifetime.
They effectively bought Yes at 28¢ after a sharp move toward Starmer leaving office.
The wallet has traded across 366 markets, suggesting a broad event-trading strategy rather than a one-off bet.

$1,305 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

Winning bettor buying Yes

Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 79% resolved win rate is buying Yes as part of a broader cross-market Starmer thesis amid a major 1-day price surge.

This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $12.9k lifetime.
They have put $8.8k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader Starmer-out thesis.
Yes is up 28 points in the past day, so this buy is aligned with strong momentum.

$1,706 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market bettor with a large history is buying No after a sharp move against that side in a liquid UK politics market.

This bettor has 1,451 resolved trades, wins 64% of them, and is up about $193k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader across 152 events with nearly $1.5M in flagged positioning.
They bought No at 67¢ after No dropped sharply, suggesting they see the Starmer resignation spike as overdone.

$1,680 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

92% winner backs Yes

Sharp wallet override: a bettor with a 92% resolved win rate and $272k profit sold No, equivalent to buying Yes at 45¢.

This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $272k lifetime.
Selling No is equivalent to buying Yes at 45¢ on Starmer leaving office by the deadline.
The market is active, with $263k traded in 24h and a large recent price move.

$1,342 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%

Three-market politics bettor

High composite alert from a wallet expressing a broader cross-market UK leadership thesis, buying No after a sharp move toward Yes.

This bettor has built a $34k view across 3 related UK leadership markets.
They bought No at 76¢ after a sharp move against No, betting the recent Yes rally is overdone.
The wallet is profitable overall, up about $24.8k across $6.2M traded.

$3,078 on No | Wallet win rate: 41%

Top Holders

0xfd66...fb6d — Outcome 59804740, $60,001 (23% win rate)
0xd519...932c — Outcome 59804740, $55,555 (18% win rate)
0x8a4c...532b — Outcome 59804740, $17,000 (52% win rate)
0xa022...77f8 — Outcome 59804740, $11,531 (70% win rate)
0xbc60...af79 — Outcome 59804740, $10,249 (67% win rate)
0xda2d...1cee — Outcome 59804740, $9,370
0x9648...6825 — Outcome 59804740, $7,143 (69% win rate)
0x2478...2e62 — Outcome 59804740, $6,947 (61% win rate)
0xc4b2...c5cd — Outcome 59804740, $6,868
0x5666...c630 — Outcome 59804740, $5,641 (55% win rate)

Related Theses

Starmer stays through June 2026

Covers 2 related markets

Iran ceasefire holds through May

Covers 3 related markets

Iran ceasefire breaks after May 27

Covers 5 related markets

Starmer out by May 31, 2026?

ResolvedStarmer out by...?$98,280 tracked29 signalsStarmerUKkeirGrooming GangsPoliticsWorld

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.