What is the Starmer out by May 31, 2026 prediction market about?

This market predicts whether Keir Starmer will stop being Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time before May 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. If he remains Prime Minister through that deadline, the market resolves to No.

What would make this Polymarket resolve to Yes?

The market resolves to Yes if Keir Starmer resigns, is removed, or otherwise ceases to be UK Prime Minister before the deadline. An official announcement of resignation or removal before the end date also triggers a Yes resolution, even if the change takes effect later.

When does the Starmer out market resolve?

The outcome window ends on May 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, and the listed resolution date is June 30, 2026. Resolution is based on official UK government sources.

How much smart money is tracked on this market?

PolySpotter is currently tracking $1,230 in smart money activity on this market, with 1 smart money signal identified.

What are recent smart money signals saying?

Recent alerts include coordinated political Yes flow, an 11-wallet funded cluster, and profitable political traders taking or flipping to Yes. These signals do not guarantee the outcome, but they can help traders understand where experienced wallets are positioning.

Part of: Starmer out by...?

Starmer out by May 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Keir Starmer will cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any point by May 31, 2026, including if a resignation or removal is announced before the deadline. The market is scheduled to resolve after the outcome window, with official UK government sources used for resolution. PolySpotter is tracking $1,230 in smart money activity and 1 signal, including recent Yes-side political flow from profitable bettors.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

12 smart money signals detected, totaling $36,186.

Categories: Starmer, UK, keir, Grooming Gangs, Politics, World

Notable Trades

87% winner buying No

Sharp wallet override: an 87% lifetime winner with positive P&L is buying No despite only a modest cross-market signal.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $16.4K lifetime.
They are backing No at 80¢ after the market moved sharply against Yes over the last day.
The same wallet has positioned across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader Starmer-stays thesis.

$1,230 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

Serial politics trader buying No

Experienced, profitable cross-market trader is re-entering the No side after a major price move and has $15.4k positioned across three related markets.

This bettor is up $169k lifetime across more than 1,100 resolved bets.
They are a serial cross-market trader, with activity across 44 events and 86 markets.
They put $5.4k on No here and $15.4k across three related markets.

$5,371 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%

Profitable cross-market bettor

Profitable high-volume wallet is building a cross-market Starmer thesis and bought Yes before a quick 12-point move, though the edge signal is moderate.

This bettor has a strong record across 238 resolved bets and is up $36.7k lifetime.
They have put $14.5k across 3 related Starmer markets, suggesting a broader political thesis.
This buy came at 35¢ and the market quickly moved to 38¢ after a 12-point surge.

$1,868 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%

11-wallet funded cluster

High-scoring coordinated politics trade: 11 linked wallets are buying Yes, with rapid price movement and a profitable high-volume wallet participating.

11 linked wallets funded by the same source are betting the same way on this outcome.
The Yes price jumped 12 percentage points in 4 minutes, suggesting the flow is moving the market.
This wallet is up about $864K lifetime and is also active across related Starmer markets.

$1,180 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 52%

Profitable wallet flips Yes

Proven profitable wallet is flipping from a prior No position into Yes while also positioning across related Starmer markets, despite only moderate signal strength.

This bettor has 220 resolved trades, wins 65%, and is up $66.6K lifetime.
They previously closed a No position and are now buying Yes at 59¢, suggesting a clear change in view.
The wallet has $6.2K positioned across two related markets on the same Starmer thesis.

$1,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%

Profitable serial trader flips Yes

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is buying Yes after flipping from a prior No position, alongside a sharp short-term price move.

This bettor is up about $895K lifetime across 910 resolved bets.
They are a serial cross-market trader, with activity across 51 events and $590K tracked in related positioning.
They bought $6.1K of Yes at 54¢ after the market jumped 12 percentage points in four minutes.

$6,092 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%

Profitable cross-market political bettor

Profitable high-volume wallet is building a cross-market Starmer thesis, with this Yes buy coinciding with a rapid 12-point move upward.

This bettor has 1,100 resolved trades and is up about $46.9k lifetime.
They have placed $3.7k across 3 related Starmer markets, suggesting a broader political thesis.
The Yes price jumped 12 points in 4 minutes, and this buy came into that momentum at 53¢.

$1,061 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%

Profitable cross-market veteran

Serial cross-market trader with a large, profitable history bought No at 43% on a UK politics market, and the position has already moved to 47%.

This bettor has traded 85 markets across 44 events and is up $162.7K lifetime.
They bought No at 43¢, and the market has already moved to 47¢.
A $2.8K entry on a political leadership market suggests a view that Starmer survives past the cutoff.

$2,844 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%

Proven political bettor

Sharp political bettor with a 79% win rate and positive lifetime P&L is building a cross-market Starmer thesis, buying No here at 43¢.

This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $38k lifetime.
They have put $26k across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader Starmer thesis.
Entry at 43¢ implies they see the market underpricing No by a meaningful margin.

$2,644 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader bought Yes amid a major volume spike and rapid price move on a politically plausible information market.

This bettor has traded 910 resolved markets and is up about $901k lifetime.
They are active across 3 related markets with $14.6k positioned on the same event.
Volume spiked 54x and Yes jumped 12 points in 4 minutes around this trade.

$2,887 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%