Part of: Claude Mythos released by…?

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?

This Polymarket prediction market tracks whether Anthropic will release a “Claude Mythos” model by June 15, 2026, after reports of a data leak and early access testing. The live odds reflect trader expectations around Anthropic’s AI release timeline, while PolySpotter is tracking $6,000 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.

A data leak on March 26, 2026, exposed Anthropic's unreleased "Claude Mythos" model, described as their most capable yet with significant advances in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity, which the company has confirmed is now in early access testing. You can read more about that here: https://fortune.com/2026/03/26/anthropic-says-testing-mythos-powerful-new-ai-model-after-data-leak-reveals-its-existence-step-change-in-capabilities/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases "Claude Mythos" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Mythos" (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

9 smart money signals detected, totaling $35,613.

Categories: anthropic, Tech, AI, Claude

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market regular

Profitable serial cross-market trader is buying $6k of No on the Claude Mythos release market, backed by a 75-market history and $120k lifetime profit.

  • This bettor is up about $120k across 75 resolved markets.
  • They regularly trade related markets, with activity across 52 events and over $1.1M staked.
  • A $6k No buy at 72¢ suggests conviction that a June 15 release is unlikely.

$6,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader bought $5k of No after a sharp Yes rally, suggesting a contrarian thesis on the Mythos release timing.

  • This bettor is up $120k lifetime across 75 resolved markets.
  • They have traded 52 related-event setups, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
  • The $5k No buy comes after Yes jumped 26% this week, making it a notable contrarian position.

$5,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a long history is putting $10k on No and has $17k positioned across this event.

  • This bettor is up $120k lifetime across 75 resolved markets with $1.7M invested.
  • They have traded 52 related-event setups before, making this a repeat pattern rather than a one-off bet.
  • The $10k No buy is meaningful versus $16.6k in market liquidity and fades the recent Yes rally.

$10,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%

93% winner buying NO

Sharp-wallet override: a bettor with a 93% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought $5.2k of No on an AI release market as part of a cross-market thesis.

  • This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $9.7k lifetime.
  • They put $5.2k on No here, with $8.2k positioned across related markets.
  • The bet is contrarian to the recent Yes rally, which is up 23 points over the past week.

$5,166 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with $139K lifetime P&L is buying No on the Claude Mythos release market as part of a broader event position.

  • This bettor is up $139K lifetime and has won 61% of 72 resolved markets.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.17M deployed across 52 events.
  • This $2K buy on No adds to a $9K broader position around the same event.

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%

Profitable cross-market specialist

Profitable serial cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes on the Mythos release market, with broader event positioning and strong recent Yes momentum.

  • This trader is up $263K lifetime across 1,220 resolved bets.
  • They have traded 126 markets across 60 events, suggesting a repeat cross-market strategy.
  • Selling No at 64¢ is the same as buying Yes at 36¢, while Yes is already up 23 points this week.

$2,005 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved sample is taking the bullish side on a market already moving upward.

  • This bettor has won 68% of 953 resolved bets and is up $151k lifetime.
  • They have traded across 35 related events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
  • Selling No at 82¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 18¢, after Yes has moved up 9 points in the last day.

$1,059 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%

Profitable serial event trader

A profitable high-volume serial cross-market trader flipped into a $1.7k No position at 88¢ on a near-deadline AI release market.

  • This bettor is up $190k lifetime across more than 1,200 resolved trades.
  • They have traded 118 markets across 57 related events, suggesting this is part of a recurring research-driven strategy.
  • They flipped from a small prior Yes position into a larger $1.7k No bet at 88¢.

$1,679 on No | Wallet win rate: 59%

96% win-rate serial bettor

A highly proven serial cross-market bettor with a 96% resolved win rate bought No on a relatively quiet AI-release market.

  • This bettor has won 96% of 947 resolved bets and is up $95.7K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $6.1M bet across 528 markets.
  • The $2.7K No buy is large for this market, equal to nearly half of its 24h volume.

$2,704 on No | Wallet win rate: 96%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbf93...2fd7 No, $34,211 (59% win rate)
  2. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $23,410 (69% win rate)
  3. 0x7578...6426 Yes, $14,318
  4. 0x8d5a...6a4e Yes, $14,204
  5. 0xb94c...4c0c Yes, $11,826
  6. 0xd6ec...2ecb Yes, $11,470
  7. 0x2136...ee56 No, $10,121 (91% win rate)
  8. 0x6dce...4490 No, $9,454 (19% win rate)
  9. 0xadb6...ff87 Yes, $7,561
  10. 0x81aa...c075 No, $7,034 (93% win rate)

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Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?

6dClaude Mythos released by…?$35,613 tracked9 signalsanthropicTechAIClaude
Yes
51¢
No
49¢

A data leak on March 26, 2026, exposed Anthropic's unreleased "Claude Mythos" model, described as their most capable yet with significant advances in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity, which the company has confirmed is now in early access testing. You can read more about that here: https://fortune.com/2026/03/26/anthropic-says-testing-mythos-powerful-new-ai-model-after-data-leak-reveals-its-existence-step-change-in-capabilities/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases "Claude Mythos" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Mythos" (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Price History — “Yes
47¢
24¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?

3h ago

$6,000 on No at 72¢

72¢49¢23¢

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?

5h ago

$5,000 on No at 68¢

68¢49¢19¢

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?

6h ago

$10,000 on No at 71¢

71¢49¢22¢

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?

10h ago

$5,166 on No at 73¢

73¢49¢24¢

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?

12h ago

$2,000 on No at 66¢

66¢49¢17¢

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?

15h ago

$2,005 on Yes at 36¢

36¢51¢15¢

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?

2d ago

$1,059 on Yes at 18¢

18¢51¢33¢

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?

6d ago

$1,679 on No at 88¢

88¢49¢39¢

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?

9d ago

$2,704 on No at 88¢

88¢49¢39¢

Related Theses