Part of: Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $70,752.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Foreign Policy, Israel, Syria, Lebanon
Notable Trades
Repeat new whale buying No
A repeat new large bettor put $9.5k into No amid a major volume spike, but the wallet has no resolved track record yet.
- A new wallet with 11 large-bet flags has now put $26k into flagged positions.
- This trade added $9.5k to No in four quick buys at 88¢.
- Market activity surged 63x above normal, and the price has moved toward No over the past week.
$9,504 on No
New whale volume spike
New wallet put about $26k into No on a news-sensitive Hezbollah disarmament market during a 249x volume spike, making this a notable conviction bet despite no resolved track record.
- A new wallet is making a large $26k bet on No, with repeated fills at 88¢.
- This trade helped drive a 249x volume spike in a normally quieter geopolitical market.
- The bet is large relative to the $16.8k liquidity, suggesting strong conviction at the current price.
$26,136 on No
New whale buying No
A new repeat large-bet wallet is net buying $9.2k of No amid a major volume spike on a geopolitical market, though it has no resolved track record yet.
- A new wallet is making repeat large bets, net buying about $9.2k of No at 88¢.
- Market volume spiked 249x versus its recent average, suggesting fresh positioning around this thesis.
- The bet is on a geopolitical outcome where informed news-driven trading is plausible, but the wallet has no proven win record yet.
$13,728 on No
New whale backs No
A brand-new wallet put meaningful size into No on a relatively quiet geopolitical market, driving a major volume spike despite having no resolved track record yet.
- A new wallet put over $21K of flow into No, a large move for a market with about $16.7K liquidity.
- Volume spiked roughly 779x versus the recent average, suggesting fresh attention on a quiet market.
- Entry at 88¢ is a high-confidence favorite bet rather than a long-shot mispricing.
$21,384 on No
Top Holders
- 0x7733...97bd — Yes, $1,854
- 0x635a...d6f0 — Yes, $1,716
- 0xf0ee...4b33 — No, $1,650
- 0x1ad7...eac6 — No, $1,418
- 0x80df...3407 — No, $1,380
- 0x40f1...15f9 — No, $1,255 (21% win rate)
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — Yes, $962 (64% win rate)
- 0x64db...89bb — Yes, $819
- 0x82f3...11d8 — No, $695
- 0x4cb8...e737 — Yes, $623
