Part of: Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,443.
Categories: Primaries, Paxton, Politics, Texas Senate, Elections, Cornyn, US Election, Rewards 50, 4.5, 100
Notable Trades
Profitable serial cross-market trader
A highly experienced cross-market trader with 869 resolved bets and $736k lifetime profit bought Yes at 71¢ on a political market.
- This bettor has 869 resolved bets and is up $736k lifetime.
- They have traded across 91 events and 138 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- Buying Yes at 71¢ implies they see Paxton’s runoff margin clearing 9% as underpriced.
$3,693 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
95% winner buying NO
Sharp profitable wallet with a 95% resolved-bet record is taking a $3.5k contrarian No position against a rising market.
- This bettor has won 18 of 19 resolved bets and is up $45.6k lifetime.
- They bought $3.5k of No at 23¢ while the market prices Yes near 78%.
- The market has moved +17 points toward Yes this week, making this a sharp contrarian entry.
$3,525 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%
Sharp bettor buying contrarian No
Sharp profitable wallet with a 79% resolved win rate is buying No against a heavily moved market, making this a worthwhile copy-trade candidate despite modest size.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $25.7K lifetime.
- They are buying No at 19¢ after the market moved strongly toward Yes this week.
- Entry at 19¢ implies about a 5x payout if Paxton fails to win the runoff by 9% or more.
$1,075 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume cross-market bettor bought Yes in a relatively thin political market with a trade larger than the market’s entire prior 24h volume.
- This bettor wins 68% of resolved bets and is up $747k lifetime.
- They have traded across 89 events with over $1.0M in cross-market activity, suggesting a repeatable research process.
- This $4.15k Yes buy was 151% of the market’s prior 24h volume, a large conviction bet in a thin order book.
$4,150 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $12,016
- 0x23d8...0288 — No, $9,633 (81% win rate)
- 0xc7e5...2d3a — No, $5,225 (82% win rate)
- 0x944e...8c94 — No, $3,000 (69% win rate)
- 0xc4fd...fe19 — No, $2,149 (95% win rate)
- 0x52a4...0294 — No, $1,761 (85% win rate)
- 0x9fc1...0c67 — No, $1,704
- 0x2c41...133e — No, $1,692 (64% win rate)
- 0x9182...3368 — No, $975 (41% win rate)
- 0x95cd...b9a8 — No, $909
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