What does the Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance market predict?

The market predicts whether Mojtaba Khamenei will be photographed or videotaped in public by December 31, 2026.

What qualifies for a Yes outcome?

A Yes outcome requires authentic images or video taken and released during the market’s timeframe. Archival footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, and staged reproductions do not qualify.

When does the Mojtaba Khamenei market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027, at 04:59 UTC, corresponding to the listed December 31 deadline in Eastern Time.

What is smart money doing in this market?

The supplied data reports $8,599 in tracked smart-money activity and one signal, with recent alerts showing wallets scaling into the No side.

Where can I check the current Polymarket odds?

The live Yes and No prices on the market page represent the current implied odds. Those prices were not included in the metadata provided here.

Part of: Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether Mojtaba Khamenei will be authentically photographed or videotaped between market creation and December 31, 2026. It resolves on January 1, 2027, and the supplied data shows $8,599 in tracked smart-money activity, including signals favoring No; a current market probability was not provided.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.

9 smart money signals detected, totaling $84,632.

Categories: Middle East, Israel, Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Profitable serial trader adds to No

A consistently profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to a substantial No position in a relatively quiet market.

This bettor is up $68,667 across 719 resolved bets, with a 62% win rate.
They added $4,241 to an existing $10,000 No position at 85¢; the trade is over half of the market’s 24-hour volume.

$4,241 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%

New wallet scaling into No

A brand-new wallet is repeatedly building a large No position in a relatively quiet market, though it has no resolved track record yet.

This wallet is only 21 minutes old but has flagged $18,406 across six positions.
It added $5,311 to No at 77¢, with its existing No exposure bringing the position to roughly $12,200.
The trade represented about 196% of reported 24-hour volume, indicating unusually strong conviction in No.

$8,599 on No

New wallet scaling into No

A brand-new wallet is repeatedly building a large No position in a relatively quiet market, though it has no resolved track record yet.

This wallet is only 21 minutes old but has flagged $18,406 across six positions.
It added $5,311 to No at 77¢, with its existing No exposure bringing the position to roughly $12,200.
The trade represented about 196% of reported 24-hour volume, indicating unusually strong conviction in No.

$5,311 on No

Large cross-market No bettor

A large additional No position coincided with an extreme volume spike and broad cross-market positioning, making this a notable directional trade despite the wallet's only moderate edge.

The wallet added $29,123 to No, more than 143% of the market's 24-hour volume.
Trading across five related markets involved $67,192, suggesting a broader conviction that public footage will not emerge.
The wallet is profitable overall at $14,314, though its 68% win rate is only modestly above its average winning entry price of 78¢.

$24,657 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

Large cross-market No bettor

A large additional No position coincided with an extreme volume spike and broad cross-market positioning, making this a notable directional trade despite the wallet's only moderate edge.

The wallet added $29,123 to No, more than 143% of the market's 24-hour volume.
Trading across five related markets involved $67,192, suggesting a broader conviction that public footage will not emerge.
The wallet is profitable overall at $14,314, though its 68% win rate is only modestly above its average winning entry price of 78¢.

$2,250 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

Large cross-market No bettor

A large additional No position coincided with an extreme volume spike and broad cross-market positioning, making this a notable directional trade despite the wallet's only moderate edge.

The wallet added $29,123 to No, more than 143% of the market's 24-hour volume.
Trading across five related markets involved $67,192, suggesting a broader conviction that public footage will not emerge.
The wallet is profitable overall at $14,314, though its 68% win rate is only modestly above its average winning entry price of 78¢.

$1,332 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

New whale buying Yes

A brand-new wallet committed $6,000 to Yes across repeated buys, coinciding with an extreme volume spike and a meaningful price rise in a thin, wide-spread market.

A wallet just 25 minutes old bought $6,000 of Yes across two trades, a large commitment relative to available liquidity.
The market saw a 362.9x historical volume spike while Yes rose 17% over the week and 23% in one day.
The position is concentrated and fresh, though the wallet has no resolved betting history to confirm its edge.

$6,000 on Yes

Large cross-market No bettor

A large additional No position coincided with an extreme volume spike and broad cross-market positioning, making this a notable directional trade despite the wallet's only moderate edge.

The wallet added $29,123 to No, more than 143% of the market's 24-hour volume.
Trading across five related markets involved $67,192, suggesting a broader conviction that public footage will not emerge.
The wallet is profitable overall at $14,314, though its 68% win rate is only modestly above its average winning entry price of 78¢.

$29,123 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

Six-wallet cluster scaling into No

Six linked wallets are coordinating on No in a thin market, with this trader adding $3,120 to an existing No position despite only moderate historical performance.

Six wallets sharing a funder have committed $4,238 toward the same outcome.
This bettor added $3,120 to an existing No position, bringing their investment in No to roughly $9,090.
The trade represented about 961% of the market's 24-hour volume, making it a meaningful move in a thin market.

$3,120 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%