Part of: US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,885.
Categories: Iran, Trump, Israel, Military, Politics, Geopolitics, Middle East, Israel x Iran, Military Actions, Military Strikes
Notable Trades
Profitable bettor adding to Yes
A profitable bettor with an 81% win rate over 83 resolved trades is adding to a Yes position, making this a notable conviction signal despite the market's high odds.
- This bettor has won 67 of 83 resolved trades and is up $5,940.
- They added $1,480 to an existing Yes position at 87¢.
- The market is liquid, with over $200,000 in 24-hour volume.
$1,446 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Sharp bettor joins four-wallet No cluster
Four wallets sold Yes, equivalent to buying No, including a profitable bettor with an 88% win rate on 608 resolved markets.
- Four wallets took the No side, with about $7,000 in combined trades.
- One bettor has won 88% of 608 resolved markets and is up over $151,000.
- The trades imply No entries around 16–20¢, while the market currently prices No near 14¢.
$6,959 on No
Profitable bettor adding to Yes
A profitable bettor with an 81% win rate over 83 resolved trades is adding to a Yes position, making this a notable conviction signal despite the market's high odds.
- This bettor has won 67 of 83 resolved trades and is up $5,940.
- They added $1,480 to an existing Yes position at 87¢.
- The market is liquid, with over $200,000 in 24-hour volume.
$1,480 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Top Holders
- 0xe4f5...9663 — No, $25,000 (4% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — No, $23,667 (76% win rate)
- 0xf7b7...e490 — No, $21,790 (100% win rate)
- 0xc46d...a968 — No, $17,569 (100% win rate)
- 0xe234...304a — No, $16,326 (66% win rate)
- 0xf958...238c — No, $13,439
- 0x876b...1703 — No, $11,474 (45% win rate)
- 0x2a68...a4c8 — No, $11,357 (65% win rate)
- 0x9592...a7b8 — No, $10,980 (76% win rate)
- 0x5e30...1ebd — No, $10,092
Related Theses
Ceasefire breaks after October 24
Covers 2 related markets
