Part of: 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?

This prediction market asks whether IMF PortWatch will report zero daily transit calls for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz on any date from June 26 through July 31, 2026. It resolves as soon as qualifying data is published, or no later than July 31; tracked smart-money activity currently includes a 93% winner adding to No.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No." Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,858.

Categories: close, Iran, ships, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz, Oil

Notable Trades

93% winner adding to No

A highly profitable 93% win-rate serial cross-market trader is adding to an existing No position on a geopolitical market.

  • This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $120,859 lifetime.
  • They are adding to an existing No position, now with over $10,000 committed on this market.
  • This wallet has traded 45 markets across 30 events with the same strong 93% track record.

$1,858 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

Top Holders

  1. 0x563e...a157 No, $10,000 (89% win rate)
  2. 0x9c98...f4f4 No, $8,363 (93% win rate)
  3. 0x56e7...7c0b No, $7,886 (79% win rate)
  4. 0xa108...abd3 No, $6,508 (94% win rate)
  5. 0xe1b3...1426 Yes, $6,061 (67% win rate)
  6. 0x7a0d...53f7 Yes, $5,440 (43% win rate)
  7. 0x9014...5b73 Yes, $4,818 (100% win rate)
  8. 0x9a3f...914a Yes, $4,500 (58% win rate)
  9. 0xffa3...3d81 No, $4,480
  10. 0xe8c4...395d Yes, $3,654 (95% win rate)

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0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?

Resolved0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?$1,858 tracked1 signalcloseIranshipsGeopoliticsStrait of HormuzOil
Yes
10¢
No
90¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No." Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Price History — “No
98¢
85¢
73¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?

22d ago

$1,858 on No at 86¢

86¢90¢4¢

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