Part of: 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $22,957.

Categories: close, Iran, ships, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz, Oil

Notable Trades

High-volume bettor scales into Yes

A highly profitable wallet added roughly $21,000 of Yes exposure during a 500x volume surge and an 84.5-point daily price rally, though its historical edge is not strong relative to its 96% average win price.

  • This bettor has won 94% of 368 resolved trades and is now adding heavily to Yes exposure.
  • About $21,000 traded in a normally quiet market as Yes surged 84.5 percentage points in one day.
  • The market has only $3,361 of liquidity and a wide spread, so the move reflects substantial conviction but carries execution risk.

$21,099 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%

93% winner adding to No

A highly profitable 93% win-rate serial cross-market trader is adding to an existing No position on a geopolitical market.

  • This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $120,859 lifetime.
  • They are adding to an existing No position, now with over $10,000 committed on this market.
  • This wallet has traded 45 markets across 30 events with the same strong 93% track record.

$1,858 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Top Holders

  1. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 32819665, $19,034
  2. 0x563e...a157 Outcome 32819665, $10,000 (89% win rate)
  3. 0xc7d0...1f8a Outcome 32819665, $8,602
  4. 0x2549...74f7 Outcome 32819665, $7,437 (76% win rate)
  5. 0x4178...fbcb Outcome 32819665, $3,000
  6. 0x71ab...f015 Outcome 32819665, $2,500 (63% win rate)
  7. 0xe278...b608 Outcome 32819665, $2,392 (56% win rate)
  8. 0x5011...220e Outcome 32819665, $1,555 (57% win rate)
  9. 0x85a8...9281 Outcome 32819665, $1,481 (93% win rate)
  10. 0x8b72...6dbe Outcome 32819665, $1,320 (50% win rate)

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0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?

Resolved0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?$22,957 tracked2 signalscloseIranshipsGeopoliticsStrait of HormuzOil

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No." Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Price History — “No
98¢
85¢
73¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?

50d ago

$21,099 on Yes at 86¢

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?

67d ago

$1,858 on No at 86¢

Related Theses