What does this Bab el-Mandeb prediction market measure?

It measures whether IMF PortWatch reports the Bab el-Mandeb Strait's 7-day moving average of transit calls, listed as 'Arrivals of Ships,' at 10 or fewer during the market window.

What counts as 'effectively closed' in this market?

For this market, 'effectively closed' does not mean a formal legal shutdown. It means observed shipping traffic drops enough that IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of 10 or less for the strait.

When will this Polymarket resolve?

The market resolves to Yes as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes qualifying data at or below the threshold. If that never happens, it resolves to No once data covering the listed end date has been published, with the market deadline on April 30, 2026.

Why does Bab el-Mandeb matter for oil and global shipping?

Bab el-Mandeb is a critical chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Major disruption there can reroute ships around the Cape of Good Hope, raising shipping times, freight costs, and potentially affecting oil and trade flows.

What could move the odds in this market?

Odds may react to Houthi attacks, naval responses, insurance and freight changes, regional escalation involving Iran, and updated IMF PortWatch traffic data showing whether vessel transits are falling toward the market threshold.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?

This Polymarket asks whether the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will be effectively closed, defined as IMF PortWatch reporting a 7-day moving average of ship arrivals at or below 10 on any date before the market deadline. The market resolves immediately if that threshold is hit; otherwise it resolves after data is published through April 30, 2026. Traders use it to gauge Red Sea shipping disruption risk tied to Houthi attacks and wider regional spillover.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,078.

Categories: houthi, traffic, Oil, Geopolitics, Iran, Strait of Hormuz, shipping, Politics, cape of good hope, Regional Spillover, red sea, Houthis

Notable Trades

Profitable contrarian on NO

A profitable wallet with a 73% win rate is making a fresh cross-market bet on No at 71¢ in a geopolitics market that has been drifting toward Yes, making this a modest but followable contrarian signal.

This bettor wins 73% of resolved trades and is up $12.7k overall.
They bought No at 71¢ while the market has moved 5.5 points toward Yes in the last day.
The wallet is betting across 2 related markets in the same event with $8.2k total exposure.

$1,078 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%