Part of: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,033.

Categories: houthi, traffic, Oil, Geopolitics, Iran, Strait of Hormuz, shipping, Politics, cape of good hope, Regional Spillover, red sea, Houthis

Notable Trades

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?

LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.

LLM evaluation inconclusive

$2,810 | Wallet win rate: 70%

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?

LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.

LLM evaluation inconclusive

$2,092 | Wallet win rate: 65%

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?

LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.

LLM evaluation inconclusive

$1,200 | Wallet win rate: 76%

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?

LLM evaluation inconclusive — kept for manual review.

LLM evaluation inconclusive

$1,854 | Wallet win rate: 69%

Profitable contrarian on NO

A profitable wallet with a 73% win rate is making a fresh cross-market bet on No at 71¢ in a geopolitics market that has been drifting toward Yes, making this a modest but followable contrarian signal.

This bettor wins 73% of resolved trades and is up $12.7k overall.
They bought No at 71¢ while the market has moved 5.5 points toward Yes in the last day.
The wallet is betting across 2 related markets in the same event with $8.2k total exposure.

$1,078 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

0xef02...5ebd — Outcome 50593835, $54,369
0xbfcb...63ef — Outcome 50593835, $43,077 (36% win rate)
0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 50593835, $35,741 (82% win rate)
0x70ff...b65f — Outcome 50593835, $22,443
0xc021...1fa8 — Outcome 50593835, $11,915 (53% win rate)
0x2c78...a1a3 — Outcome 50593835, $11,320
0x0d05...6a81 — Outcome 50593835, $11,120 (13% win rate)
0xa503...2342 — Outcome 50593835, $10,000 (79% win rate)
0x6d16...7228 — Outcome 50593835, $5,800 (63% win rate)
0x55db...2031 — Outcome 50593835, $5,500 (55% win rate)

Related Theses

Hormuz deadline markets mispriced

Covers 5 related markets

Iran agreement lands May 27

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Covers 5 related markets

Iran airspace contracts mispriced

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 7 related markets

Peace deal after June 7

Covers 8 related markets

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?

ResolvedBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?$9,033 tracked5 signalshouthitrafficOilGeopoliticsIranStrait of HormuzshippingPoliticscape of good hopeRegional Spilloverred seaHouthis

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.