Part of: Gemini 4.0 released by...?

Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?

This prediction market tracks whether Google makes Gemini 4.0 Flash available to the general public by September 30, 2026. Open beta access or open rolling waitlist signups qualify, while closed beta and private access do not; the market resolves on October 1, 2026, and currently shows one smart-money signal involving a seven-wallet Yes cluster.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,550.

Categories: Gemini 3, Tech, AI, Gemini, AI Releases

Notable Trades

Seven-wallet funded Yes cluster

Seven wallets sharing a funder are aligned on Yes, and the trader is adding to an existing position despite a 30% market price.

  • Seven wallets sharing one funder are positioned on Yes, creating a meaningful coordinated signal.
  • The wallet is adding to a $10,000 existing Yes position, raising its average entry from 27¢ to roughly 31¢.
  • Yes is available near 30%, while the trader has a 67% win rate across 212 resolved bets, though that record is not strongly above its typical purchase odds.

$1,550 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 No, $74,206 (70% win rate)
  2. 0xb1ca...1705 No, $31,372 (55% win rate)
  3. 0x0042...321e Yes, $26,805 (52% win rate)
  4. 0x5a7b...e9eb Yes, $25,570 (70% win rate)
  5. 0x75a2...6992 Yes, $17,910 (66% win rate)
  6. 0xb100...6461 No, $17,813 (62% win rate)
  7. 0x14c3...df68 Yes, $11,535 (71% win rate)
  8. 0xe234...304a Yes, $10,003 (65% win rate)
  9. 0x2b9d...adc0 Yes, $6,500 (53% win rate)
  10. 0xac4a...bf1e Yes, $4,427

Related Theses

Ceasefire lasts into October, not December

Covers 14 related markets

Iran blockade ends by August 15

Covers 7 related markets

Iran ceasefire breaks, resumes, then ends

Covers 3 related markets

Ceasefire by July, briefly lapses, returns

Covers 4 related markets

Ceasefire comes, collapses, returns

Covers 4 related markets

Fed will hike rates 25 bps

Covers 2 related markets

WTI reaches $90, not $95

Covers 2 related markets

Iran deal by June

Covers 4 related markets

Iran airspace will remain open

Covers 3 related markets

Farage wins 60–70% in Clacton

Covers 2 related markets

Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?

8dGemini 4.0 released by...?$1,550 tracked1 signalGemini 3TechAIGeminiAI Releases
Yes
9¢
No
91¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
99¢
93¢
87¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?

20d ago

$1,550 on Yes at 31¢

31¢9¢22¢

Related Theses

Ceasefire lasts into October, not December
Wallet_0xe2349 trades 14 related markets
Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…Israel x Iran ceasefire contin…
Iran blockade ends by August 15
Wallet_0xe2349 trades 7 related markets
US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…US announces end of Iranian bl…
Iran ceasefire breaks, resumes, then ends
Wallet_0xe2349 trades 3 related markets
US ceasefire against Iran cont…US ceasefire against Iran cont…US ceasefire against Iran cont…
Ceasefire by July, briefly lapses, returns
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US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …US x Iran Effective Ceasefire …
Ceasefire comes, collapses, returns
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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agr…Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agr…Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agr…
Fed will hike rates 25 bps
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Will there be no change in Fed…Will the Fed increase interest…
WTI reaches $90, not $95
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Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Iran deal by June
Wallet_0xe2349 trades 4 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Iran airspace will remain open
Wallet_0xe2349 trades 3 related markets
Iran full airspace closure by …Iran full airspace closure by …Iran full airspace closure by …
Farage wins 60–70% in Clacton
Wallet_0xe2349 trades 2 related markets
Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% o…Will Nigel Farage win at least…