Part of: Gemini 4.0 released by...?
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?
This prediction market tracks whether Google makes Gemini 4.0 Flash available to the general public by September 30, 2026. Open beta access or open rolling waitlist signups qualify, while closed beta and private access do not; the market resolves on October 1, 2026, and currently shows one smart-money signal involving a seven-wallet Yes cluster.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,550.
Categories: Gemini 3, Tech, AI, Gemini, AI Releases
Notable Trades
Seven-wallet funded Yes cluster
Seven wallets sharing a funder are aligned on Yes, and the trader is adding to an existing position despite a 30% market price.
- Seven wallets sharing one funder are positioned on Yes, creating a meaningful coordinated signal.
- The wallet is adding to a $10,000 existing Yes position, raising its average entry from 27¢ to roughly 31¢.
- Yes is available near 30%, while the trader has a 67% win rate across 212 resolved bets, though that record is not strongly above its typical purchase odds.
$1,550 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $74,206 (70% win rate)
- 0xb1ca...1705 — No, $31,372 (55% win rate)
- 0x0042...321e — Yes, $26,805 (52% win rate)
- 0x5a7b...e9eb — Yes, $25,570 (70% win rate)
- 0x75a2...6992 — Yes, $17,910 (66% win rate)
- 0xb100...6461 — No, $17,813 (62% win rate)
- 0x14c3...df68 — Yes, $11,535 (71% win rate)
- 0xe234...304a — Yes, $10,003 (65% win rate)
- 0x2b9d...adc0 — Yes, $6,500 (53% win rate)
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Yes, $4,427
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