Part of: Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?

Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $15,558.

Categories: Politics, Magyar, Elections, Global Elections, Orban, Hungary Election, Fidesz, Hungary

Notable Trades

83% win-rate political sharp

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 83% win rate bought into a fast-moving political market after a sharp repricing, making this worth surfacing despite the modest ticket size.

This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $270k across 58 settled markets.
They trade across 84 markets in 47 events, which suggests a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
They bought Yes at 89¢ after a fast 13.5-point move in an active election market, showing conviction even near new highs.

$1,366 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

Repeat new wallet betting No

A repeat new wallet is making another large political trade into an unusually large volume spike, and the sell of Yes at 81¢ translates to a fresh bullish No position around 19¢.

A 13-day-old wallet has already triggered 5 large-bet alerts and put over $21k to work
This trade came during a 104x volume spike in a major election market, suggesting fast new positioning
Selling Yes at 81¢ is equivalent to buying No around 19¢, a cheap contrarian entry against an 84¢ market price

$4,513 on No

New whale chasing breakout

A very new wallet has repeatedly placed large bets on this political market during a major breakout, suggesting conviction worth watching despite no proven track record yet.

A 13-day-old wallet has already been flagged 4 times and put about $16.7k into notable bets.
This trade bought Yes for $4.6k during a sharp move after the market broke far above its old 28-50¢ range.
The market is active and moving fast, with Yes up about 46% in a day, so this looks like conviction on fresh momentum rather than routine flow.

$4,591 on Yes

88% win-rate political buyer

A highly profitable 88% win-rate trader with broad cross-market success bought into a political market after a sharp drop, suggesting they see value in Yes around the mid-30s.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $920k lifetime.
They have traded 120 markets across 73 events, which points to a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
They bought Yes at 37¢ after a fast 13.5-point drop, implying they viewed the selloff as mispriced.

$1,655 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%

84% win-rate political sharp

A high-volume cross-market specialist with an 84% win rate bought No at 73¢ in a meaningful political market, making this a credible sharp-bettor signal despite the modest size.

This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up about $303k overall.
They have traded 80 markets across 44 events, suggesting a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
They bought No at 73¢ in a liquid election market, signaling TISZA is unlikely to reach the very high 133-seat threshold.

$2,066 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Profitable new wallet scaling in

A 6-day-old wallet with repeated large bets, early profits, and perfect early results just added another meaningful position on a major political market.

This 6-day-old wallet has already triggered 4 large-bet alerts totaling $31.6k
It is up $1.5k so far and has won 3 of 3 resolved markets
Buying No at 67¢ suggests conviction that a TISZA supermajority is still overpriced after the recent rally

$1,367 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%

Covers 2 related markets

Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?

Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?$15,558 tracked6 signalsPoliticsMagyarElectionsGlobal ElectionsOrbanHungary ElectionFideszHungary

Yes

100¢

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Yes

100¢

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