When does the IAEA site visit market resolve?

The market resolves at 11:59 PM ET on October 31, 2026. It resolves Yes if a qualifying IAEA visit occurs before the deadline and No otherwise.

Which Iranian nuclear sites count for a Yes outcome?

Visits to the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility count. Pickaxe Mountain is specifically excluded from the Natanz definition.

What do recent smart-money signals indicate?

PolySpotter tracks $1,800 in smart-money activity across one signal. Recent alerts show wallets adding to No, including a 93% winner scaling into the No position.

Who qualifies as an IAEA official in this market?

An IAEA official is an individual acting in an official capacity on behalf of the International Atomic Energy Agency, subject to the market’s resolution rules.

Part of: IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?

Q: What does the IAEA Iran nuclear site prediction market ask?

The market asks whether one or more IAEA officials will physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility by October 31, 2026.

This Polymarket prediction market asks whether an IAEA official will physically visit Iran’s Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Recent smart-money activity has leaned toward No, with $1,800 tracked across one signal; Pickaxe Mountain does not count as part of Natanz.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,936.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Negotiation Topics, Iran, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

New wallet scaling into No

A repeat new wallet is adding a sizable No position in an exceptionally thin market, though its limited track record does not yet establish a proven edge.

A 23-day-old wallet has made three flagged large bets, totaling $4,800, and already holds a sizable No position here.
The $1,800 purchase was over 100 times the market’s 24-hour volume, making it a strong concentration signal in a thin market.
Its 2-0 resolved record is too small to prove skill, so the conviction signal matters more than the track record.

$1,800 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

93% winner adds to No

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 93% win rate is adding to an existing No position in a thin market.

This bettor has won 77 of 83 resolved trades and is up $35,675.
The wallet trades across 34 events and is adding $1,136 to its existing No position.
The No entry is 83¢, near the current 83% market price, so the edge comes primarily from the trader’s track record rather than a clear price discount.

$1,136 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%