IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
7 signals across 3 markets · $63,042 tracked · resolves Jan 1, 2027
This event tracks whether IAEA officials will physically visit Iran’s Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear sites by the July 31 deadline. PolySpotter follows the Polymarket odds, trading activity, and smart-money alerts around the Yes/No outcome, including a recent signal from a profitable serial cross-market bettor.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- Four-wallet coordinated No position
Four wallets added nearly $28,000 to No in a burst over 20 seconds, alongside a reported 1,415x volume spike on a relatively thin market.
$27,849Score: 5.9 - 93% winner adds to No
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 93% win rate is adding to an existing No position in a thin market.
$1,136Wallet win rate: 92%Score: 5.2 - Three-wallet coordinated Yes position
Three wallets moved about $20.6K into the Yes side at an effective 14¢, alongside a 150x historical volume spike, though their track records do not establish a clear edge.
$20,589Score: 4.9 - Serial trader adds to No
A serial, modestly profitable trader added materially to an existing No position in a thin market, though the record does not show a clear odds-adjusted edge.
$1,632Wallet win rate: 79%Score: 4.5 - Profitable serial cross-market bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with over $1M lifetime profit bought $8.5k of No in a relatively thin geopolitical market.
$8,535Wallet win rate: 71%Score: 4.3 - New wallet scaling into No
A repeat new wallet is adding a sizable No position in an exceptionally thin market, though its limited track record does not yet establish a proven edge.
$1,800Wallet win rate: 100%Score: 1.4 - 90% winner buying No
Sharp wallet override: a bettor with a 90% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No despite only a weak new-wallet signal.
$1,500Wallet win rate: 90%Score: 1.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x6139c4…6b7a$8,535 · 1 market · 1 alert · 71% wins
- 0x091141…6594$1,800 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0x8597ca…daee$1,632 · 1 market · 1 alert · 79% wins
- 0x68d3b0…55b0$1,500 · 1 market · 1 alert · 90% wins
- 0x85a858…9281$1,136 · 1 market · 1 alert · 92% wins
FAQs
What is the Polymarket event for the IAEA Iran nuclear site visit?
The event asks whether one or more IAEA officials will physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran by July 31. The hub tracks the market pricing for the Yes and No outcomes.
What do the odds mean for this IAEA visit market?
The odds reflect traders’ current implied probability that an official IAEA visit to one of the listed Iranian nuclear sites happens before the deadline. As new reporting, diplomatic developments, or inspection updates emerge, the market can move quickly.
Is smart money betting on the IAEA visit outcome?
PolySpotter has tracked $8,535 in smart-money activity across this event, including a signal tied to a profitable serial cross-market bettor. That does not guarantee the result, but it can help show where experienced traders are taking positions.
When does this IAEA nuclear site visit market resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve after the July 31 deadline, based on whether qualifying IAEA officials physically visited Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz within the market’s rules.
Does Pickaxe Mountain count as part of Natanz for this market?
No. The market rules state that Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility, so a visit there alone would not satisfy the event conditions.