What does this Iran uranium enrichment prediction market cover?

The market resolves Yes if Iran publicly agrees to end all uranium enrichment by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The pledge can be unilateral or part of a deal with the U.S. or Israel.

When does the Iran enrichment market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve based on whether a qualifying public agreement or pledge occurs by June 30, 2026. If no such pledge is made by the deadline, it resolves No.

Would a future-dated agreement count for Yes?

Yes. According to the market rules, any agreement or pledge made before the deadline qualifies, even if the end of enrichment takes effect later.

What are smart money traders doing in this market?

PolySpotter has tracked $4,025 in smart money activity and 1 signal. Recent alerts include an 86% winner leading a Yes cluster, but also repeat whale buying on No and bearish wallet exits.

Where can I track Iran Polymarket odds on uranium enrichment?

You can use PolySpotter to follow this Iran uranium enrichment Polymarket page, including live odds context, smart money signals, whale activity, and related geopolitical market alerts.

Part of: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

This prediction market asks whether Iran will publicly agree to end all uranium enrichment by June 30, 2026, including through a unilateral pledge or an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. PolySpotter is tracking $4,025 in smart money activity across 1 signal, with recent alerts showing notable whale interest on the No side despite a strong Yes cluster headline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

38 smart money signals detected, totaling $322,334.

Categories: Trump, Geopolitics, Politics, Nuclear, Middle East, World, Iran, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Sharp No buyer

A profitable sharp wallet with an 80% record and strong edge bought $4k of No on a geopolitically meaningful market.

This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up about $5.5k lifetime.
They put $4k on No at 80¢, adding conviction to the market’s current 81% No view.
The market is liquid enough to follow, with a tight 2¢ spread and over $31k traded in 24h.

$4,025 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

New profitable repeat bettor

A 10-day-old wallet with repeated large flagged bets and early profits is effectively buying Yes on a geopolitically sensitive market near its final month.

This 10-day-old wallet has already made 8 flagged bets totaling $11.3k.
The bettor is up $3.8k on 2 resolved markets so far, suggesting early edge despite a short record.
Selling No at 78¢ is the same as buying Yes at 22¢, a ~4.5x payout if Iran agrees by June 30.

$1,036 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Profitable serial macro bettor

A highly experienced, profitable cross-market trader with 1,538 resolved bets and $249k lifetime profit bought No on a geopolitical market.

This bettor has 1,538 resolved trades, a 65% win rate, and is up about $249k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 163 events and 369 markets.
Buying No at 78¢ suggests a confident view that an Iran enrichment-ending pledge remains unlikely.

$1,651 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

81% winner buying Yes

A profitable 81% winner is effectively buying Yes at 18¢ despite the market trending down, making the wallet track record the main signal.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $3.9K lifetime.
Selling No at 82¢ is the same as buying Yes at 18¢.
Entry at 18¢ implies they see a roughly 5.6x payout if Iran agrees.

$1,033 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

98% winner backs No

Surface because a proven sharp bettor with a 45/46 resolved track record placed a $35.8k No bet that exceeded the market's 24h volume.

This bettor has won 45 of 46 resolved trades, beating market odds by a wide margin.
They put $35.8k on No, larger than the market’s entire $20.7k 24h volume.
Entry at 78¢ suggests a high-conviction view that Iran will not agree to end enrichment by the deadline.

$35,782 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Profitable cross-market whale

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is taking a fresh Yes position at 22¢ despite the market’s recent decline.

This bettor has made $1.43M lifetime and wins 64% of 930 resolved trades.
They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 57 events and 95 markets.
Buying Yes at 22¢ after a 17% weekly drop suggests a contrarian geopolitical thesis.

$1,403 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%

Profitable serial macro trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large sample is buying No on a geopolitics market with recent momentum in that direction.

This bettor is up $349k lifetime across 867 resolved markets.
They have traded 74 markets across 32 events, suggesting a repeat cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
They bought No at 78¢ as the market has already moved toward No over the past week.

$4,432 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%

New profitable wallet buying NO

A 6-day-old wallet with repeat large-bet flags and early profitability is buying No on a geopolitics market where informed positioning is plausible.

This 6-day-old wallet has already been flagged 4 times for larger bets, with $5.4K total flagged.
The wallet is up $3.7K so far on $11.1K invested, though its resolved track record is still very small.
Buying No at 75¢ suggests a confident view that Iran will not publicly agree to end uranium enrichment by the deadline.

$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Sharp serial trader buying NO

Sharp serial cross-market bettor with 82% win rate and $523k lifetime profit is buying No on the Iran enrichment market.

This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $523k lifetime.
They are a major cross-market trader, with $2.2M deployed across 140 markets.
Buying No at 71¢ implies confidence that Iran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by the deadline.

$1,135 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes at 20¢ on a geopolitics market after a sharp recent drop.

This bettor is up $1.56M lifetime across 926 resolved markets.
They have traded 92 related markets across 55 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
Selling No at 80¢ is the same as buying Yes at 20¢ after Yes fell 9.5% in a day.

$5,098 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%