This bettor has won 45 of 46 resolved bets, far above what their entry prices implied. They put $3.2K on No at 82¢, taking the high-probability side in a serious geopolitics market. The market is liquid and steady, so the main signal is the trader’s unusually strong track record.

Part of: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

7 smart money signals detected, totaling $19,435.

Categories: Middle East, Iran Ceasefire, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large sample is buying No on a geopolitical market, though the individual bet size is modest.

This bettor has won 61% of 648 resolved trades and is up about $219K lifetime.
They have traded 250 markets across 155 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
Bought No at 82¢, and the market has already moved to about 85¢.

$1,100 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 78% resolved record sold No, implying a copyable Yes entry at 14¢, though this appears to be closing an existing No position rather than a fresh long Yes bet.

This bettor has won 78% of 104 resolved trades and is up $33.6K lifetime.
They have traded across 33 related events, suggesting a consistent cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
This trade exits a No position at 86¢, making the copyable equivalent a Yes entry around 14¢.

$4,972 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%

Profitable serial geopolitics trader

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is buying No on a geopolitical market, though the position size is modest and the signal is mostly wallet-quality driven.

This bettor is up $205K across 1,506 resolved bets, with a long history of trading event-linked markets.
They have traded 367 markets across 162 events, so this looks like a seasoned cross-market thesis rather than a one-off bet.
Buying No at 88¢ means they are backing the view that Iran will not publicly agree to end all uranium enrichment by May 31.

$1,316 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

Profitable serial geopolitics trader

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is re-entering Yes at 10¢ after previously closing a much larger position, making this a modest but track-record-backed geopolitical bet.

This bettor is up $1.55M lifetime across 919 resolved markets.
They have traded across 54 related events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
Entry at 10¢ is already better than the current 12¢ market price, implying a high-upside long-shot bet.

$1,284 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%

98% winner buying NO

A wallet flagged with an exceptional 45/46 resolved-bet record is buying No on a geopolitics market at 82¢.

This bettor has won 45 of 46 resolved bets, far above what their entry prices implied.
They put $3.2K on No at 82¢, taking the high-probability side in a serious geopolitics market.
The market is liquid and steady, so the main signal is the trader’s unusually strong track record.

$3,157 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

98% winner buying NO

A wallet flagged with an exceptional 45/46 resolved-bet record bought $5.0k of No at 87¢ on a clear geopolitics market.

This bettor has won 45 of 46 resolved bets in the tracker, far better than the odds they usually take.
They put $5.0k on No at 87¢, reinforcing the market’s current 86% No view.
Entry at 87¢ is a high-confidence favorite bet with about 15% upside if it resolves No.

$5,046 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Moderately interesting because a highly active, profitable cross-market trader with a long history is buying No on a geopolitical market near 88¢.

This bettor has traded 337 markets across 145 events and is up about $237K lifetime.
They win 68% of resolved bets across 1,315 outcomes, suggesting a strong repeatable track record.
A $2.6K buy at 88¢ signals they expect Iran not to agree to end uranium enrichment by May 31.

$2,561 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

Top Holders

0x6139...6b7a — Outcome 25969918, $15,000 (70% win rate)
0x3c59...1766 — Outcome 25969918, $14,682 (71% win rate)
0xd426...334a — Outcome 25969918, $11,848 (42% win rate)
0x5138...4fe5 — Outcome 25969918, $8,989 (40% win rate)
0xe649...ee94 — Outcome 25969918, $6,446
0x5188...c804 — Outcome 25969918, $6,335 (82% win rate)
0x1c12...79d9 — Outcome 25969918, $5,200 (17% win rate)
0x0042...321e — Outcome 25969918, $3,461 (47% win rate)
0x95cd...8efe — Outcome 25969918, $3,103
0xfd30...b2d2 — Outcome 25969918, $3,037

Related Theses

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

ResolvedIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?$19,435 tracked7 signalsMiddle EastIran CeasefireU.S. x IranGeopoliticsIran

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.