Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,561.
Categories: Middle East, Iran Ceasefire, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Iran
Notable Trades
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Moderately interesting because a highly active, profitable cross-market trader with a long history is buying No on a geopolitical market near 88¢.
- This bettor has traded 337 markets across 145 events and is up about $237K lifetime.
- They win 68% of resolved bets across 1,315 outcomes, suggesting a strong repeatable track record.
- A $2.6K buy at 88¢ signals they expect Iran not to agree to end uranium enrichment by May 31.
$2,561 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Top Holders
- 0xe649...ee94 — Yes, $6,446
- 0xe738...df65 — No, $3,840 (68% win rate)
- 0x2fea...3bde — No, $1,000
- 0x54a7...881b — No, $879 (94% win rate)
- 0x2aaa...94e5 — No, $844 (38% win rate)
- 0x6d9f...9790 — Yes, $500 (62% win rate)
- 0x300c...6a92 — No, $500
- 0xd883...4fd7 — No, $370
- 0x08ce...f301 — Yes, $291
- 0x773d...fd77 — Yes, $275
