Part of: Iran closes its airspace by...?
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
44 smart money signals detected, totaling $120,963.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran
Notable Trades
Profitable contrarian No flow
A profitable cross-market bettor is buying No around 33¢ while several others rotate out of Yes after a major rally, creating a contrarian but notable No signal.
- One bettor buying No wins 71% of resolved trades and is up $289K lifetime.
- This is part of broader cross-market positioning, with wallets trading 5–12 related markets and over $138K in event exposure.
- Entry around 32¢ is contrarian after Yes surged 57 percentage points today.
$6,581 on No
Cross-market Iran bettor
A high-win-rate but unprofitable wallet made a $10k Yes buy as part of a $15k cross-market Iran airspace thesis during a sharp price surge, making it worth monitoring but not a slam-dunk sharp signal.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved bets, though lifetime profit is still negative.
- They put $10,000 on Yes and $15,000 across related markets, suggesting a coordinated geopolitical thesis.
- The market has surged over 50 points in a day, and this trade helped drive a rapid 11-point move.
$10,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet is buying No after positioning across five related Iran markets, suggesting a broader cross-market thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- This bettor has won 65% of 1,551 resolved bets and is up $270K lifetime.
- They have put $31K across 5 related markets, pointing to a broader Iran de-escalation thesis.
- They previously closed a Yes position here and are now buying No at 82¢.
$2,039 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
88% winner cross-market thesis
Sharp 88% lifetime wallet with +$287.8k P&L is buying No as part of a seven-market Iran-related cross-market thesis totaling $107.6k.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $287.8k lifetime.
- They have positioned across 7 related markets with $107.6k at stake, suggesting a broader thesis.
- This is a fresh No buy at 81¢, betting against a major Iranian airspace closure.
$1,123 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet is effectively buying Yes at 20¢ while positioning across related Iran airspace markets.
- This wallet has 383 resolved trades and is up about $553K lifetime.
- They are betting across 2 related markets, with about $28.7K in total exposure on the same theme.
- Selling No at 80¢ is the same as buying Yes at 20¢, implying they see upside from the current low odds.
$6,185 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
98% winner exits YES
A highly profitable 98% win-rate wallet sold Yes, effectively taking the No side, though this looks like exiting a prior Yes position rather than a fresh large bet.
- This bettor has won 193 of 197 resolved positions and is up about $799K lifetime.
- They sold Yes at 17¢, which is equivalent to backing No at 83¢.
- This appears to close a prior Yes position, so the signal is more about a sharp bettor abandoning Yes than adding fresh size.
$1,943 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%
Profitable cross-market geopolitical bettor
A long-running profitable wallet is taking the No side while positioning across three related Iran markets, though the trade is modest and currently moved against them.
- This bettor has a large track record, winning 70% of 910 resolved bets and earning about $53k lifetime.
- They are positioning across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Their effective No entry was 77¢, while the market is now around 72¢, offering a cheaper follow price than their fill.
$1,617 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
87% winner cross-market
Sharp wallet with an 87% resolved-bet win rate and nearly $479k profit is buying No as part of a large cross-market Iran-airspace thesis.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $478k lifetime.
- They have built a broad same-event position across 7 related markets totaling about $108k.
- Buying No at 76¢ implies they see airspace closure risk as overpriced despite recent Yes momentum.
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
88% winner buying No
Sharp profitable wallet with an 88% resolved win rate is buying No while carrying a broader cross-market thesis across this event.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $287K lifetime.
- They have bet across 7 related markets with over $107K in event exposure, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Buying No at 74¢ means they are backing Iran not closing its airspace by the deadline.
$1,450 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
98% winner buying Yes
Surfaced because this is an exceptionally sharp wallet with a 98% resolved-position win rate and large lifetime profit, plus a long serial cross-market track record, buying Yes despite the market moving lower since entry.
- This bettor has won 175 of 178 resolved positions and is up about $727K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 93 events, with $656K+ in similar event-linked activity.
- They bought Yes at 34¢; the market is now around 24¢, offering a cheaper entry than the sharp wallet paid.
$1,499 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%
Top Holders
- 0xeb49...693e — Outcome 95989988, $115,045 (81% win rate)
- 0x2ef4...1077 — Outcome 95989988, $100,000
- 0x33a9...9e97 — Outcome 95989988, $73,158
- 0xc8bd...8b8c — Outcome 95989988, $59,950
- 0x41d5...9958 — Outcome 95989988, $54,766
- 0x95cf...e7dd — Outcome 95989988, $51,505
- 0x1e29...740f — Outcome 95989988, $50,000
- 0x7c94...00d0 — Outcome 95989988, $40,000
- 0x22e4...ef1c — Outcome 95989988, $30,000 (58% win rate)
- 0x88c4...129a — Outcome 95989988, $20,838 (88% win rate)
