Part of: Iran closes its airspace by...?
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN). Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $158,343.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran
Notable Trades
Profitable whale flipped Yes
Profitable high-volume trader flipped into Yes amid a major volume spike and broad cross-market positioning, with price momentum strongly confirming the move.
- This bettor has won 67% of 1,056 resolved bets and is up $306K lifetime.
- They are active across 6 related markets with $121K positioned on the same event.
- The market saw a 22.8x volume spike and Yes jumped sharply after their 86¢ entry.
$7,954 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Profitable cross-market geopolitical trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader re-entered Yes amid a major volume spike and 46-point price move on a geopolitically sensitive market.
- This bettor has a long track record: 67% wins across 706 resolved trades and $46k lifetime profit.
- They are active across 6 related markets in this event, with $12.6k positioned and a history spanning 26 events.
- Yes has surged 46 points on a 22x volume spike, and this wallet re-entered at 75¢ after previously trading $26k here.
$1,069 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%
Profitable cross-market event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader is buying Yes amid a major volume spike and sharp upward price move, suggesting a broader event-driven thesis.
- This bettor wins 68% of resolved trades and is up $223,880 lifetime.
- They have traded 4 related markets in this event with about $31,000 positioned, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Market volume is 22x normal and Yes has jumped about 46 percentage points, confirming strong momentum.
$1,377 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
Profitable cross-market specialist
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought No before a major move upward, with broader related-event positioning supporting the thesis.
- This bettor is up $319k lifetime across 1,133 resolved markets.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.7M traded across 83 markets in 47 events.
- Bought No at 55¢ before it moved near 80¢, suggesting the market has already validated the thesis.
$1,955 on No | Wallet win rate: 52%
89% serial cross-market sharp
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 89% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes on a geopolitics market.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved bets and is up about $146K lifetime.
- They have traded across 75 events and 128 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Entry at 21¢ implies a roughly 4.8x payout if Iran closes its airspace by the deadline.
$1,067 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
88% winner across event
Sharp positive-P&L wallet with an 88% resolved win rate is adding a No bet as part of broader cross-market positioning around the same event.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $23,938 lifetime.
- They have placed $84,268 across 7 related markets, suggesting a broader view on this event.
- Buying No at 85¢ aligns with the market’s recent move lower for Yes, down 10 points this week.
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable cross-market trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader is shifting exposure across four related markets, with this trade effectively buying Yes at 12¢ after closing a prior No position.
- This bettor has traded 44 markets across 25 events and is up about $72k lifetime.
- They have $47k positioned across four related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This trade is effectively a Yes entry at 12¢, against market odds near 10¢.
$3,532 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
93% winner buying No
A highly profitable 93% win-rate wallet bought $13.6k of No and has broader cross-market positioning in the same event.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved positions and is up about $1.0M lifetime.
- They bought $13.6k of No at 89¢, aligning with the market’s recent move away from Yes.
- This wallet is active across 4 related markets with $111k positioned in the same event.
$13,616 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
89% winner buying NO
Sharp wallet with an 89% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying No in a geopolitics market, with cross-market positioning supporting the view.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved bets and is up $7.4K lifetime.
- They have $7.3K positioned across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Buying No at 90¢ aligns with recent market momentum, with Yes down 16 points this week.
$3,132 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
91% winner cross-market
Proven 91% win-rate wallet with strong lifetime profit is taking a cross-market No position across the Iran airspace event.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $731K lifetime.
- They have traded 61 related markets across 38 events, suggesting a repeatable edge in event-linked markets.
- This is part of a 5-market position worth $28.7K on the same event.
$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
Top Holders
- 0x88ae...809a — Yes, $294,766 (73% win rate)
- 0xf396...ed0d — Yes, $66,871 (92% win rate)
- 0xc898...b0f8 — Yes, $56,809 (77% win rate)
- 0xb698...976a — Yes, $51,214
- 0x5602...1480 — Yes, $50,000 (63% win rate)
- 0xb4f2...7851 — Yes, $49,555 (40% win rate)
- 0x05f6...25a1 — Yes, $48,563 (67% win rate)
- 0x000d...758e — Yes, $35,049 (86% win rate)
- 0x15fd...cc95 — Yes, $34,318 (99% win rate)
- 0x614e...4f1b — Yes, $32,310 (76% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran keeps airspace open
Covers 7 related markets
I'm sorry, but I cannot assist with that request.
Covers 5 related markets
Iran ceasefire will hold
Covers 9 related markets
