Part of: Iran closes its airspace by...?
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $430,261.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran
Notable Trades
Brand-new repeat bettor buys YES
A wallet less than 1 day old is making repeated sizeable bets and converts here to buying Yes at 16¢ on a geopolitics market where informed views are plausible.
- This wallet is only 18 hours old but has already triggered 9 large-bet alerts totaling $34K.
- The trade is effectively buying Yes at 16¢, a low-probability entry with high upside if Iran closes airspace.
- This is a geopolitics market with heavy volume, making repeat conviction from a new wallet worth watching.
$2,189 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding a fresh No position near expiry, though the trade size is modest in a very liquid market.
- This bettor is up $325K lifetime across 821 resolved trades.
- They have a long cross-market track record, trading 45 markets across 25 events.
- Bought No at 84¢ while the market moved sharply toward No today.
$2,446 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%
Profitable cross-market NO buyer
Profitable serial cross-market trader is making a fresh $5k NO buy on a high-volume geopolitical market aligned with the day’s sharp move lower in Yes odds.
- This bettor is up $325k across 821 resolved trades.
- They have traded 45 related markets across 25 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- The $5k NO buy follows a 15-point drop in Yes odds over the past day.
$4,971 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%
Profitable cross-market specialist
Profitable serial cross-market trader with $1.6M lifetime profit is buying No after the market moved sharply that direction.
- This bettor is up $1.6M across 904 resolved trades with a 63% win rate.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 48 events and $3.0M in flagged event bets.
- Buying No at 85¢ aligns with a sharp 1-day move against Yes, which fell 21 percentage points.
$7,225 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
85% sharp buying NO
Proven 85% win-rate wallet with $415k profit is buying No, backed by a long serial cross-market record despite the market being highly liquid.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $415k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 38 events with $1.38M deployed.
- Buying No at 85¢ aligns with the market’s strong 1-day move away from Yes.
$4,250 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable serial event trader
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% hit rate is re-entering No while the market is seeing a 10x volume spike and sharp move toward No.
- This bettor has won 74% of 332 resolved bets and is up about $226K lifetime.
- They have traded 127 markets across 80 events, suggesting a repeat event-driven strategy rather than a one-off bet.
- No has strong momentum, with Yes down 18.5 points in the past day amid a 10x volume spike.
$2,120 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Profitable cross-market whale
Profitable serial cross-market trader with $1.6M lifetime P&L placed a $42k No bet amid a 10x volume spike and strong same-day move toward No.
- This bettor wins 63% of resolved trades and is up $1.6M lifetime.
- They placed $42k on No at 84¢ while volume spiked 10x above normal.
- The wallet is a serial cross-market trader across 48 events, suggesting a repeatable research-driven style.
$42,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
Serial cross-market winner buys NO
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% resolved-bet win rate is buying No on a plausible geopolitics market after sharp momentum against Yes.
- This bettor wins 74% of resolved bets and is up $226k lifetime.
- They have traded 127 related markets across 80 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market process.
- Buying No at 83¢ follows a 19% one-day drop in Yes, aligning with strong market momentum.
$1,118 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Serial event trader buying YES
Profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a contrarian Yes position at 18¢ as part of a broader $22k event thesis.
- This bettor has won 74% of 332 resolved bets and is up about $226k lifetime.
- They have traded across 80 events and are putting $22k into related markets here.
- Selling No at 82¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 18¢ after the market fell 13.5 points today.
$2,474 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding an $8.2k No bet after Yes odds fell sharply, but the signal is moderate because this is a liquid market and the trade is not unusually large.
- This bettor is up $1.6M lifetime across 904 resolved trades.
- They have traded across 48 related events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- Buying No at 82¢ follows a 13.5-point drop in Yes odds over the past day.
$8,199 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 92837230, $91,695 (69% win rate)
- 0xf1bf...11d7 — Outcome 92837230, $84,139 (50% win rate)
- 0xb1fa...1a14 — Outcome 92837230, $40,749 (22% win rate)
- 0x7b66...3a93 — Outcome 92837230, $30,000
- 0xae7c...487e — Outcome 92837230, $26,900 (87% win rate)
- 0x1e1f...c855 — Outcome 92837230, $26,402 (58% win rate)
- 0x38dd...44cf — Outcome 92837230, $22,254
- 0xd519...932c — Outcome 92837230, $20,000 (18% win rate)
- 0x45d5...e43e — Outcome 92837230, $14,519
- 0xad2e...d9bd — Outcome 92837230, $13,917
