Part of: Iran leadership change by...?
Iran leadership change by November 30?
This prediction market asks whether Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, will cease to be the country’s de facto leader by November 30, 2026. A “Yes” outcome includes removal, detention, loss of position, or being prevented from acting as de facto leader; the market currently shows smart-money activity backing “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,285.
Categories: Mojtaba, ayatollah, Politics, Iran Regime, Geopolitics, Iran, Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei out, Mojtaba out
Notable Trades
Serial event trader backs No
An experienced serial cross-market trader made a concentrated No bet in a thin market and positioned across five related markets, though the historical win rate does not show a clear pricing edge.
- This trader put $1,849 on No, representing 65.5% of the market’s 24-hour volume.
- The wallet is active across 144 events and placed $15,004 across five markets tied to this event.
- The trader has a 68% win rate and is up $162,547 lifetime, but typically wins at prices near 87%, so the track record is not a strong standalone edge.
$1,435 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Serial event trader backs No
An experienced serial cross-market trader made a concentrated No bet in a thin market and positioned across five related markets, though the historical win rate does not show a clear pricing edge.
- This trader put $1,849 on No, representing 65.5% of the market’s 24-hour volume.
- The wallet is active across 144 events and placed $15,004 across five markets tied to this event.
- The trader has a 68% win rate and is up $162,547 lifetime, but typically wins at prices near 87%, so the track record is not a strong standalone edge.
$1,849 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Top Holders
- 0xa58d...b9b8 — Yes, $2,076 (40% win rate)
- 0x9d73...216b — No, $2,000 (73% win rate)
- 0x80a4...22cc — Yes, $1,745 (60% win rate)
- 0xb34b...5d0e — Yes, $1,221
- 0xf5d1...67cc — No, $1,000
- 0x9cdd...3e97 — No, $900 (84% win rate)
- 0xe1b3...1426 — No, $800 (67% win rate)
- 0x1dd1...a156 — Yes, $615 (53% win rate)
- 0x5cd5...ac33 — No, $600 (94% win rate)
- 0xa8c6...44e8 — No, $340 (67% win rate)
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