Part of: Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,602.
Categories: Iran, Iran Ceasefire, seize, strike, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
96% winner linked cluster
Surface this: a highly profitable 96% win-rate wallet joined linked, one-sided No buying on a near-expiry geopolitical market.
- A bettor who wins 96% of resolved trades is buying No and is up $266,853 lifetime.
- Three wallets bought the same side for $3,726, with a 6-wallet shared-funder cluster also detected.
- They entered at 87¢ and No has already moved to 92¢, suggesting the market followed their position.
$3,726 on No
96% winner buys No
A highly profitable sharp wallet with a 96% resolved win rate and strong cross-market track record bought $2.9k of No at 87% ahead of tomorrow's resolution.
- This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades and is up $266k lifetime.
- They have traded 84 related events with the same 96% hit rate, suggesting a repeatable edge.
- Buying No at 87¢ implies they see the shipping attack as very unlikely before resolution.
$2,876 on No | Wallet win rate: 96%
Top Holders
- 0x8c66...44f3 — Yes, $9,004 (83% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Yes, $5,929 (81% win rate)
- 0xc97b...47e5 — No, $5,465 (70% win rate)
- 0xe665...7d42 — No, $3,400 (100% win rate)
- 0x2d99...4ca3 — No, $3,244
- 0xc8ab...6418 — Yes, $2,202 (47% win rate)
- 0xa9ac...c5d1 — Yes, $2,000 (35% win rate)
- 0xe8c4...395d — No, $1,778 (96% win rate)
- 0xd426...334a — No, $1,668 (43% win rate)
- 0x49ae...f3ba — No, $1,360 (76% win rate)
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