Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
4 signals across 3 markets · $11,325 tracked · resolves Jul 9, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether Iranian forces successfully strike or seize a commercial ship on the listed dates, with separate markets for June 29 and June 30. PolySpotter is monitoring both outcomes across the event, where recent smart-money activity has leaned toward “No,” including signals from a 96% winner-linked cluster.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- 96% winner linked cluster
Surface this: a highly profitable 96% win-rate wallet joined linked, one-sided No buying on a near-expiry geopolitical market.
$3,726Score: 26.7 - 96% winner buys No
A highly profitable sharp wallet with a 96% resolved win rate and strong cross-market track record bought $2.9k of No at 87% ahead of tomorrow's resolution.
$2,876Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 12.0 - 96% winner in No cluster
Surface because a highly profitable 96% lifetime bettor joined a 3-wallet No cluster that has already moved from 87-89¢ to 91¢.
$3,693Score: 7.1 - Whale adds to thin-market conviction
A trader with a positive track record added $1,029 to an existing Yes position in an extremely illiquid market, making the bet notable despite limited evidence of exceptional skill.
$1,029Wallet win rate: 52%Score: 3.1
Top wallets in this event
- 0xe8c4d6…395d$2,876 · 1 market · 1 alert · 94% wins
- 0xa65c87…7997$1,029 · 1 market · 1 alert · 52% wins
FAQs
What are the Iran shipping strike odds on Polymarket?
The event contains separate prediction markets for whether Iran successfully targets commercial shipping on June 29 and June 30. Odds can move quickly as traders react to military reports, shipping disruptions, official claims, and regional escalation headlines.
What outcomes are being traded in this event?
Traders are pricing whether Iranian forces conduct a qualifying kinetic strike on, or seize control of, a commercial ship on each specified date. Attacks on military vessels do not count under the market rules.
What is the smart money doing on this Iran shipping market?
PolySpotter has tracked $10,295 in smart-money activity across this event. Recent alerts highlight a 96% winner-linked cluster buying “No,” suggesting notable informed-trader interest against the event occurring on the tracked dates.
When does this Iran shipping event resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve by July 9, 2026, based on whether qualifying Iranian action against commercial shipping occurred on the specified IRST dates.
What counts as a successful Iranian targeting of shipping?
A qualifying event must involve Iranian forces striking or seizing a commercial ship, and the action must be claimed by Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces.