Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
This prediction market asks whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by August 31 at 11:59 PM ET. A “Yes” outcome requires a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension affecting all or most Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights arriving, departing, or transiting. PolySpotter is tracking $2,000 in smart money across 1 signal, including activity from a profitable 75% bettor.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,000.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20
Notable Trades
Profitable 75% bettor
A profitable bettor with a 75% record is buying No in a thin, wide-spread market despite only a weak low-activity signal.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $26k lifetime.
- The $2k No buy is large for this quiet market, equal to nearly half of 24h volume.
- Buying No at 81¢ shows confidence that no major Israeli airspace closure happens by the deadline.
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Top Holders
- 0xb8d2...c66b — No, $2,475 (75% win rate)
- 0xeb49...693e — No, $1,550 (81% win rate)
- 0x9ddd...5ca4 — Yes, $900
- 0x1dd1...a156 — Yes, $793 (53% win rate)
- 0xc390...2a1f — Yes, $780
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Yes, $514
- 0xf18f...294c — Yes, $500
- 0xdf90...5637 — Yes, $500
- 0xaf46...8c1d — Yes, $500 (45% win rate)
- 0x7774...6ba4 — No, $353
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Iran deal in early June
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Israel keeps airspace open
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Mojtaba stays hidden through July
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