Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?

Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $21,039.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20

Notable Trades

84% winner scaling into No

A highly successful serial cross-market trader with an 84% win rate is adding to an existing No position at 45¢.

  • This bettor has won 84% of 37 resolved trades and earned $111,621 in P&L.
  • They are adding $2,023 to an existing $4,500 No position, signaling increased conviction.
  • The wallet has traded across 42 markets and 28 events, including three markets tied to this event.

$5,816 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

84% winner scaling into No

A highly successful serial cross-market trader with an 84% win rate is adding to an existing No position at 45¢.

  • This bettor has won 84% of 37 resolved trades and earned $111,621 in P&L.
  • They are adding $2,023 to an existing $4,500 No position, signaling increased conviction.
  • The wallet has traded across 42 markets and 28 events, including three markets tied to this event.

$1,294 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

84% winner scaling into No

A highly successful serial cross-market trader with an 84% win rate is adding to an existing No position at 45¢.

  • This bettor has won 84% of 37 resolved trades and earned $111,621 in P&L.
  • They are adding $2,023 to an existing $4,500 No position, signaling increased conviction.
  • The wallet has traded across 42 markets and 28 events, including three markets tied to this event.

$2,023 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

Serial event-market bettor

A serial cross-market trader with $2.15M in activity placed $2.6K on Yes across three markets in the same event, while Yes has risen 18% over the past week.

  • This trader has participated in 41 events and 57 markets, with $2.15M in total trading volume.
  • They committed $2,606 to Yes across three markets in the same event, signaling a coordinated directional view.
  • Yes has gained 18% over the past week, supporting the trader's positioning, though their 66% win rate is not clearly superior to their typical 69% winning entry price.

$2,606 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

Three-wallet coordinated No buying

Three established, profitable wallets simultaneously added $7,300 to No at 64%, creating a meaningful one-sided position despite no confirmed sharp-bettor edge.

  • Three wallets bought No within 11 seconds, committing $7,300 at 64%.
  • All three were adding to existing No positions, signaling increased conviction rather than a one-off trade.
  • The wallets are collectively profitable, with reported lifetime profits ranging from $57,902 to $396,918.

$7,300 on No

Profitable 75% bettor

A profitable bettor with a 75% record is buying No in a thin, wide-spread market despite only a weak low-activity signal.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $26k lifetime.
  • The $2k No buy is large for this quiet market, equal to nearly half of 24h volume.
  • Buying No at 81¢ shows confidence that no major Israeli airspace closure happens by the deadline.

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Top Holders

  1. 0x57cc...882c Yes, $107,000 (38% win rate)
  2. 0xcb4c...6d64 Yes, $47,660 (30% win rate)
  3. 0xd104...acef No, $43,461 (89% win rate)
  4. 0xeb49...693e No, $38,084 (91% win rate)
  5. 0x7f9e...3a0e No, $37,803 (91% win rate)
  6. 0xcb89...a2e8 No, $35,285 (88% win rate)
  7. 0x9648...6825 No, $31,496 (69% win rate)
  8. 0xff91...a1ed Yes, $25,486 (71% win rate)
  9. 0xc15b...38af No, $24,630 (81% win rate)
  10. 0xe738...df65 No, $19,308 (62% win rate)

Related Theses

Israel keeps its airspace open

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Ceasefire by July 24, then reverses

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SpaceX IPO pricing volatile

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LeBron returns to Cleveland

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Iran deal by mid-June

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Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

ResolvedIsrael closes its airspace by...?$21,039 tracked6 signalsIranIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x IranRewards 50, 4.5, 20
Yes
3¢
No
97¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
99¢
96¢
93¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

16d ago

$5,816 on No at 45¢

45¢97¢52¢

Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

21d ago

$1,294 on No at 45¢

45¢97¢52¢

Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

30d ago

$2,023 on No at 45¢

45¢97¢52¢

Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

31d ago

$2,606 on Yes at 42¢

42¢3¢39¢

Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

33d ago

$7,300 on No at 64¢

64¢97¢33¢

Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

53d ago

$2,000 on No at 81¢

81¢97¢16¢

Related Theses

Israel keeps its airspace open
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Ceasefire by July 24, then reverses
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SpaceX IPO pricing volatile
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LeBron returns to Cleveland
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Iran deal by mid-June
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No early June deal
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Israel closes airspace in August
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Iran deal in early June
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McKinney will win MI-13 nomination
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Wesley Bell defeats Cori Bush
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