Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $21,039.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20
Notable Trades
84% winner scaling into No
A highly successful serial cross-market trader with an 84% win rate is adding to an existing No position at 45¢.
- This bettor has won 84% of 37 resolved trades and earned $111,621 in P&L.
- They are adding $2,023 to an existing $4,500 No position, signaling increased conviction.
- The wallet has traded across 42 markets and 28 events, including three markets tied to this event.
$5,816 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
84% winner scaling into No
A highly successful serial cross-market trader with an 84% win rate is adding to an existing No position at 45¢.
- This bettor has won 84% of 37 resolved trades and earned $111,621 in P&L.
- They are adding $2,023 to an existing $4,500 No position, signaling increased conviction.
- The wallet has traded across 42 markets and 28 events, including three markets tied to this event.
$1,294 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
84% winner scaling into No
A highly successful serial cross-market trader with an 84% win rate is adding to an existing No position at 45¢.
- This bettor has won 84% of 37 resolved trades and earned $111,621 in P&L.
- They are adding $2,023 to an existing $4,500 No position, signaling increased conviction.
- The wallet has traded across 42 markets and 28 events, including three markets tied to this event.
$2,023 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
Serial event-market bettor
A serial cross-market trader with $2.15M in activity placed $2.6K on Yes across three markets in the same event, while Yes has risen 18% over the past week.
- This trader has participated in 41 events and 57 markets, with $2.15M in total trading volume.
- They committed $2,606 to Yes across three markets in the same event, signaling a coordinated directional view.
- Yes has gained 18% over the past week, supporting the trader's positioning, though their 66% win rate is not clearly superior to their typical 69% winning entry price.
$2,606 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
Three-wallet coordinated No buying
Three established, profitable wallets simultaneously added $7,300 to No at 64%, creating a meaningful one-sided position despite no confirmed sharp-bettor edge.
- Three wallets bought No within 11 seconds, committing $7,300 at 64%.
- All three were adding to existing No positions, signaling increased conviction rather than a one-off trade.
- The wallets are collectively profitable, with reported lifetime profits ranging from $57,902 to $396,918.
$7,300 on No
Profitable 75% bettor
A profitable bettor with a 75% record is buying No in a thin, wide-spread market despite only a weak low-activity signal.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $26k lifetime.
- The $2k No buy is large for this quiet market, equal to nearly half of 24h volume.
- Buying No at 81¢ shows confidence that no major Israeli airspace closure happens by the deadline.
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Top Holders
- 0x57cc...882c — Yes, $107,000 (38% win rate)
- 0xcb4c...6d64 — Yes, $47,660 (30% win rate)
- 0xd104...acef — No, $43,461 (89% win rate)
- 0xeb49...693e — No, $38,084 (91% win rate)
- 0x7f9e...3a0e — No, $37,803 (91% win rate)
- 0xcb89...a2e8 — No, $35,285 (88% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $31,496 (69% win rate)
- 0xff91...a1ed — Yes, $25,486 (71% win rate)
- 0xc15b...38af — No, $24,630 (81% win rate)
- 0xe738...df65 — No, $19,308 (62% win rate)
Related Theses
Israel keeps its airspace open
Covers 5 related markets
Ceasefire by July 24, then reverses
Covers 3 related markets
SpaceX IPO pricing volatile
Covers 3 related markets
LeBron returns to Cleveland
Covers 4 related markets
Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 5 related markets
No early June deal
Covers 2 related markets
Israel closes airspace in August
Covers 3 related markets
Iran deal in early June
Covers 3 related markets
McKinney will win MI-13 nomination
Covers 2 related markets
Wesley Bell defeats Cori Bush
Covers 2 related markets
