Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?

Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

This prediction market asks whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by August 31 at 11:59 PM ET. A “Yes” outcome requires a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension affecting all or most Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights arriving, departing, or transiting. PolySpotter is tracking $2,000 in smart money across 1 signal, including activity from a profitable 75% bettor.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,000.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20

Notable Trades

Profitable 75% bettor

A profitable bettor with a 75% record is buying No in a thin, wide-spread market despite only a weak low-activity signal.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $26k lifetime.
  • The $2k No buy is large for this quiet market, equal to nearly half of 24h volume.
  • Buying No at 81¢ shows confidence that no major Israeli airspace closure happens by the deadline.

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

  1. 0xb8d2...c66b No, $2,475 (75% win rate)
  2. 0xeb49...693e No, $1,550 (81% win rate)
  3. 0x9ddd...5ca4 Yes, $900
  4. 0x1dd1...a156 Yes, $793 (53% win rate)
  5. 0xc390...2a1f Yes, $780
  6. 0xac4a...bf1e Yes, $514
  7. 0xf18f...294c Yes, $500
  8. 0xdf90...5637 Yes, $500
  9. 0xaf46...8c1d Yes, $500 (45% win rate)
  10. 0x7774...6ba4 No, $353

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Iran deal in early June

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Israel keeps airspace open

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Mojtaba stays hidden through July

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Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

12dIsrael closes its airspace by...?$2,000 tracked1 signalIranIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x IranRewards 50, 4.5, 20
Yes
15¢
No
85¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
88¢
79¢
70¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

23h ago

$2,000 on No at 81¢

81¢85¢4¢

Related Theses