Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

39 smart money signals detected, totaling $115,235.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Rewards 50, 4.5, 20

Notable Trades

Proven cross-market bettor

Sharp positive-P&L wallet with a 78% record is building a cross-market thesis, buying $6k of No here as part of $28.6k across three related markets.

  • This bettor has won 78% of 117 resolved trades and is up about $32k lifetime.
  • They are positioning across 3 related markets with $28.6k total, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • This trade backs No at 85¢, aligning with the market’s current low odds for an airspace closure.

$1,540 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

88% serial cross-market winner

Proven profitable wallet with an 88% resolved win rate is adding a No position as part of a broader cross-market thesis.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $288,570 lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.23M deployed across 56 markets and a strong track record.
  • This is part of a broader 5-market event position totaling nearly $20,000.

$1,340 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

88% serial cross-market winner

Proven profitable wallet with an 88% resolved win rate is adding a No position as part of a broader cross-market thesis.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $288,570 lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.23M deployed across 56 markets and a strong track record.
  • This is part of a broader 5-market event position totaling nearly $20,000.

$1,280 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Profitable sharp buying NO

Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% resolved-bet win rate is buying No on a geopolitically plausible airspace-closure market.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $85K lifetime.
  • They have been flagged 48 times before, suggesting a repeated pattern rather than a one-off bet.
  • Buying No at 86¢ signals confidence Israel does not make a major airspace closure by the deadline.

$6,239 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

88% serial cross-market winner

Proven profitable wallet with an 88% resolved win rate is adding a No position as part of a broader cross-market thesis.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $288,570 lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.23M deployed across 56 markets and a strong track record.
  • This is part of a broader 5-market event position totaling nearly $20,000.

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Profitable sharp buying NO

Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% resolved-bet win rate is buying No on a geopolitically plausible airspace-closure market.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $85K lifetime.
  • They have been flagged 48 times before, suggesting a repeated pattern rather than a one-off bet.
  • Buying No at 86¢ signals confidence Israel does not make a major airspace closure by the deadline.

$2,537 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

Profitable sharp buying NO

Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% resolved-bet win rate is buying No on a geopolitically plausible airspace-closure market.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $85K lifetime.
  • They have been flagged 48 times before, suggesting a repeated pattern rather than a one-off bet.
  • Buying No at 86¢ signals confidence Israel does not make a major airspace closure by the deadline.

$1,290 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

86% winner cross-market bettor

Sharp cross-market bettor with an 86% resolved win rate and $477k profit is adding to a broader No thesis across related Israel airspace markets.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $477k lifetime.
  • They have $60.7k positioned across 4 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis.
  • Buying No at 89¢ means they are backing a high-conviction view that no major airspace closure happens by July 31.

$2,800 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

86% winner cross-market bettor

Sharp cross-market bettor with an 86% resolved win rate and $477k profit is adding to a broader No thesis across related Israel airspace markets.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $477k lifetime.
  • They have $60.7k positioned across 4 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis.
  • Buying No at 89¢ means they are backing a high-conviction view that no major airspace closure happens by July 31.

$1,634 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Profitable sharp buying NO

Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% resolved-bet win rate is buying No on a geopolitically plausible airspace-closure market.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved bets and is up $85K lifetime.
  • They have been flagged 48 times before, suggesting a repeated pattern rather than a one-off bet.
  • Buying No at 86¢ signals confidence Israel does not make a major airspace closure by the deadline.

$3,480 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%

Top Holders

  1. 0x57cc...882c — Yes, $103,103 (27% win rate)
  2. 0x7bc1...8db4 — Yes, $97,570 (71% win rate)
  3. 0x93fb...3e4a — Yes, $42,275 (43% win rate)
  4. 0xae7c...487e — Yes, $27,305 (87% win rate)
  5. 0xe07a...6adb — Yes, $12,550
  6. 0xff91...a1ed — Yes, $11,328 (71% win rate)
  7. 0x6a83...4c59 — Yes, $11,117 (41% win rate)
  8. 0xf66c...58b9 — Yes, $10,033 (33% win rate)
  9. 0xddc4...967b — Yes, $10,000
  10. 0xaacb...90cb — Yes, $9,000 (70% win rate)

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Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Israel closes its airspace by...?$115,235 tracked39 signalsIranIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x IranRewards 50, 4.5, 20
Yes
0¢
No
100¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-07-24 15:34 UTC

$1,540 on No at 85¢

85¢→100¢↑15¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-07-20 17:00 UTC

$1,340 on No at 87¢

87¢→100¢↑13¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-07-20 09:43 UTC

$1,280 on No at 87¢

87¢→100¢↑13¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-07-20 08:11 UTC

$6,239 on No at 86¢

86¢→100¢↑14¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-07-20 08:06 UTC

$2,000 on No at 87¢

87¢→100¢↑13¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-07-18 20:43 UTC

$2,537 on No at 86¢

86¢→100¢↑14¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-07-18 19:49 UTC

$1,290 on No at 86¢

86¢→100¢↑14¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-07-13 14:05 UTC

$2,800 on No at 89¢

89¢→100¢↑11¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-07-13 13:22 UTC

$1,634 on No at 89¢

89¢→100¢↑11¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-07-12 23:54 UTC

$3,480 on No at 86¢

86¢→100¢↑14¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-07-12 22:16 UTC

$3,153 on No at 85¢

85¢→100¢↑15¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-07-11 18:34 UTC

$1,308 on No at 89¢

89¢→100¢↑11¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-07-10 22:12 UTC

$2,539 on No at 89¢

89¢→100¢↑11¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-07-09 03:38 UTC

$4,035 on No at 85¢

85¢→100¢↑15¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-07-08 21:40 UTC

$1,079 on No at 86¢

86¢→100¢↑14¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-07-08 17:25 UTC

$13,907 on No at 86¢

86¢→100¢↑14¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-07-01 09:04 UTC

$4,995 on No at 89¢

89¢→100¢↑11¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-07-01 05:27 UTC

$4,300 on No at 89¢

89¢→100¢↑11¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-07-01 04:41 UTC

$3,000 on No at 85¢

85¢→100¢↑15¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-06-29 12:02 UTC

$1,181 on No at 89¢

89¢→100¢↑11¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-06-29 09:01 UTC

$5,795 on No at 89¢

89¢→100¢↑11¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-06-29 11:42 UTC

$1,495 on No at 89¢

89¢→100¢↑11¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-06-29 02:56 UTC

$2,000 on No at 85¢

85¢→100¢↑15¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-06-28 20:48 UTC

$3,000 on No at 89¢

89¢→100¢↑11¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-06-28 16:14 UTC

$2,580 on No at 86¢

86¢→100¢↑14¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-06-28 14:05 UTC

$1,767 on No at 89¢

89¢→100¢↑11¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-06-28 01:17 UTC

$2,000 on No at 85¢

85¢→100¢↑15¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-06-27 19:45 UTC

$1,970 on No at 89¢

89¢→100¢↑11¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-06-26 21:33 UTC

$1,371 on No at 89¢

89¢→100¢↑11¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-06-26 16:35 UTC

$3,000 on No at 85¢

85¢→100¢↑15¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-06-26 08:54 UTC

$2,014 on No at 89¢

89¢→100¢↑11¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-06-25 15:07 UTC

$3,314 on No at 89¢

89¢→100¢↑11¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-06-25 15:07 UTC

$1,146 on No at 87¢

87¢→100¢↑13¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-06-24 16:30 UTC

$1,529 on No at 89¢

89¢→100¢↑11¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-06-24 16:20 UTC

$7,456 on No at 89¢

89¢→100¢↑11¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-06-24 02:00 UTC

$1,560 on Yes at 12¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-06-23 17:02 UTC

$1,240 on No at 88¢

88¢→100¢↑12¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-06-23 11:53 UTC

$2,361 on No at 87¢

87¢→100¢↑13¢

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

2026-06-20 21:57 UTC

$6,000 on No at 85¢

85¢→100¢↑15¢

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