Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?

Israel closes its airspace by June 13?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,688.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

9-market geopolitical bettor

Surface: this is part of a $65k, 9-market cross-market position by a profitable wallet that flipped into No near resolution after the Yes price weakened.

  • This wallet has positioned across 9 related markets with about $65k total exposure.
  • The bettor is up about $60k lifetime and bought No at 85¢ before it moved to 92¢.
  • They appear to have flipped from a prior Yes position into No as the market moved sharply against Yes.

$1,120 on No | Wallet win rate: 54%

87% winner buying No

Surface: a highly profitable 87% win-rate serial cross-market trader is buying No and has a broader related-event position.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $485K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 28 events, with $1.55M in related-style positioning.
  • They have $20.5K spread across 3 markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.

$1,568 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%

Top Holders

  1. 0x174b...5a55 Outcome 73069759, $3,962 (56% win rate)
  2. 0x5666...c630 Outcome 73069759, $3,500 (60% win rate)
  3. 0x333a...bd76 Outcome 73069759, $1,444
  4. 0x51b2...10ce Outcome 73069759, $1,250 (36% win rate)
  5. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 73069759, $1,000 (75% win rate)
  6. 0xefd9...14d6 Outcome 73069759, $723 (76% win rate)
  7. 0x51de...9e4a Outcome 73069759, $719 (36% win rate)
  8. 0x5526...3582 Outcome 73069759, $678
  9. 0x6436...da96 Outcome 73069759, $264 (88% win rate)
  10. 0x6139...6b7a Outcome 73069759, $250 (71% win rate)

Related Theses

Israel airspace stays open

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Iran will retain Kharg Island

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WTI stays below $85

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Iran keeps airspace open

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Lula reaches presidential runoff

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Spain wins 2026 World Cup

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Hormuz blockade lifted mid-June

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Israel closes its airspace by June 13?

ResolvedIsrael closes its airspace by...?$2,688 tracked2 signalsIranIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x Iran

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

Israel closes its airspace by June 13?

58d ago

$1,120 on No at 85¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 13?

59d ago

$1,568 on No at 90¢

Related Theses