Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?
Israel closes its airspace by June 13?
This prediction market asks whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by June 13, resolving Yes if there is a broad suspension or cancellation of commercial aviation across all or most of Israeli airspace. Current smart money tracked is $1,568 across 1 signal, with a recent alert showing an 87% winner buying No. The market resolves based on whether a qualifying closure occurs by the specified deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,568.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
87% winner buying No
Surface: a highly profitable 87% win-rate serial cross-market trader is buying No and has a broader related-event position.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $485K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 28 events, with $1.55M in related-style positioning.
- They have $20.5K spread across 3 markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
$1,568 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
Top Holders
- 0x7f9e...3a0e — No, $4,081 (87% win rate)
- 0x21c7...191a — Yes, $4,000 (62% win rate)
- 0xeb49...693e — No, $3,510 (74% win rate)
- 0x5666...c630 — Yes, $3,500
- 0x174b...5a55 — Yes, $2,057 (56% win rate)
- 0x836f...906e — No, $1,838 (100% win rate)
- 0x0482...6b0a — Yes, $1,497 (32% win rate)
- 0x67d0...db7a — Yes, $1,070 (35% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Yes, $1,000 (81% win rate)
- 0x356c...80b7 — No, $1,000
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