Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?
Israel closes its airspace by June 13?
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,688.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
9-market geopolitical bettor
Surface: this is part of a $65k, 9-market cross-market position by a profitable wallet that flipped into No near resolution after the Yes price weakened.
- This wallet has positioned across 9 related markets with about $65k total exposure.
- The bettor is up about $60k lifetime and bought No at 85¢ before it moved to 92¢.
- They appear to have flipped from a prior Yes position into No as the market moved sharply against Yes.
$1,120 on No | Wallet win rate: 54%
87% winner buying No
Surface: a highly profitable 87% win-rate serial cross-market trader is buying No and has a broader related-event position.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $485K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 28 events, with $1.55M in related-style positioning.
- They have $20.5K spread across 3 markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
$1,568 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Top Holders
- 0x174b...5a55 — Outcome 73069759, $3,962 (56% win rate)
- 0x5666...c630 — Outcome 73069759, $3,500 (60% win rate)
- 0x333a...bd76 — Outcome 73069759, $1,444
- 0x51b2...10ce — Outcome 73069759, $1,250 (36% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 73069759, $1,000 (75% win rate)
- 0xefd9...14d6 — Outcome 73069759, $723 (76% win rate)
- 0x51de...9e4a — Outcome 73069759, $719 (36% win rate)
- 0x5526...3582 — Outcome 73069759, $678
- 0x6436...da96 — Outcome 73069759, $264 (88% win rate)
- 0x6139...6b7a — Outcome 73069759, $250 (71% win rate)
Related Theses
Israel airspace stays open
Covers 6 related markets
Iran will retain Kharg Island
Covers 3 related markets
WTI stays below $85
Covers 5 related markets
Iran keeps airspace open
Covers 5 related markets
Lula reaches presidential runoff
Covers 1 related market
Spain wins 2026 World Cup
Covers 1 related market
Hormuz blockade lifted mid-June
Covers 7 related markets
