Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?

Israel closes its airspace by June 13?

This prediction market asks whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by June 13, resolving Yes if there is a broad suspension or cancellation of commercial aviation across all or most of Israeli airspace. Current smart money tracked is $1,568 across 1 signal, with a recent alert showing an 87% winner buying No. The market resolves based on whether a qualifying closure occurs by the specified deadline.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,568.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

87% winner buying No

Surface: a highly profitable 87% win-rate serial cross-market trader is buying No and has a broader related-event position.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $485K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 28 events, with $1.55M in related-style positioning.
  • They have $20.5K spread across 3 markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.

$1,568 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

Top Holders

  1. 0x7f9e...3a0e No, $4,081 (87% win rate)
  2. 0x21c7...191a Yes, $4,000 (62% win rate)
  3. 0xeb49...693e No, $3,510 (74% win rate)
  4. 0x5666...c630 Yes, $3,500
  5. 0x174b...5a55 Yes, $2,057 (56% win rate)
  6. 0x836f...906e No, $1,838 (100% win rate)
  7. 0x0482...6b0a Yes, $1,497 (32% win rate)
  8. 0x67d0...db7a Yes, $1,070 (35% win rate)
  9. 0xfc2f...10c7 Yes, $1,000 (81% win rate)
  10. 0x356c...80b7 No, $1,000

Related Theses

Kharg Island falls in June

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 6 related markets

Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 5 related markets

Israel keeps airspace open

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 7 related markets

Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 1 related market

Spain wins 2026 World Cup

Covers 1 related market

Iran ceasefire will hold

Covers 6 related markets

PT won't nominate Lula

Covers 1 related market

Israel closes its airspace by June 13?

1dIsrael closes its airspace by...?$1,568 tracked1 signalIranIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x Iran
Yes
17¢
No
83¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
97¢
83¢
69¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel closes its airspace by June 13?

1h ago

$1,568 on No at 90¢

90¢83¢7¢

Related Theses