Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?
Israel closes its airspace by June 13?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,688.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
9-market geopolitical bettor
Surface: this is part of a $65k, 9-market cross-market position by a profitable wallet that flipped into No near resolution after the Yes price weakened.
- This wallet has positioned across 9 related markets with about $65k total exposure.
- The bettor is up about $60k lifetime and bought No at 85¢ before it moved to 92¢.
- They appear to have flipped from a prior Yes position into No as the market moved sharply against Yes.
$1,120 on No | Wallet win rate: 54%
87% winner buying No
Surface: a highly profitable 87% win-rate serial cross-market trader is buying No and has a broader related-event position.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $485K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 28 events, with $1.55M in related-style positioning.
- They have $20.5K spread across 3 markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
$1,568 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Top Holders
- 0x5666...c630 — Yes, $3,500 (60% win rate)
- 0x333a...bd76 — Yes, $1,444
- 0x51b2...10ce — Yes, $1,250 (36% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Yes, $1,000 (76% win rate)
- 0xefd9...14d6 — Yes, $723 (76% win rate)
- 0x51de...9e4a — Yes, $719 (36% win rate)
- 0x5526...3582 — Yes, $678
- 0x6436...da96 — Yes, $264 (88% win rate)
- 0x6139...6b7a — Yes, $250 (71% win rate)
- 0x4ea9...1651 — Yes, $233
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