Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,508.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable serial cross-market trader

Profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 319-market history is buying No as the market sharply moves away from Yes.

  • This bettor has won 69% of 319 resolved trades and is up $21.6K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 44 related events, suggesting a repeat strategy rather than a one-off bet.
  • The market is already moving toward No, with Yes down 34 points in the past day.

$2,508 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Top Holders

  1. 0x8a98...1b92 Yes, $3,990 (52% win rate)
  2. 0xb4f2...e5fa No, $3,009 (69% win rate)
  3. 0x5a21...9318 No, $1,635 (55% win rate)
  4. 0xac4a...bf1e Yes, $1,384
  5. 0xe738...df65 Yes, $1,092 (65% win rate)
  6. 0xdc41...362b No, $1,063 (100% win rate)
  7. 0xa667...84fe No, $960 (39% win rate)
  8. 0x88c4...129a No, $933 (90% win rate)
  9. 0xa65c...32fb Yes, $744
  10. 0xd033...0522 Yes, $727

Related Theses

Covers 1 related market

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Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

21dIsrael closes its airspace by...?$2,508 tracked1 signalIranIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x Iran
Yes
16¢
No
84¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
86¢
59¢
32¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

1h ago

$2,508 on No at 83¢

83¢84¢1¢

Related Theses