Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $115,034.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
88% winner backs No
Sharp cross-market trader with an 88% win rate and nearly $700k lifetime profit is adding a No position while also trading related markets in the same event.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $698k lifetime.
- They are active across 4 related markets in this event, with $27.9k positioned.
- Bought No at 87¢, and the market has already moved to 90¢ in their direction.
$1,223 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Surface because a profitable 75% win-rate wallet is taking a cross-market Yes view despite this being only a modest-sized trade.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $6.5k lifetime.
- They have put about $5.7k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Selling No at 87¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 13¢, close to the current 12¢ market price.
$1,109 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet with an 80% resolved win rate and +$93k lifetime P&L is buying No as part of a small cross-market thesis.
- This bettor has won 80% of 168 resolved bets and is up $93k lifetime.
- They are buying No at 81¢, taking the view that Israel does not broadly close airspace by the deadline.
- They have $2.8k positioned across related markets, suggesting a broader event thesis.
$1,037 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%
87% winner buying No
Sharp wallet with 87% win rate and +$482k lifetime P&L is buying No on a geopolitically plausible airspace-closure market.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $482k lifetime.
- They have $13.6k positioned across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader view rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 78¢ implies they see No as a high-confidence outcome despite Yes gaining 16 points this week.
$1,287 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable serial event trader
A highly active cross-market trader with a long profitable history is taking Yes exposure amid strong recent market momentum.
- This bettor has traded 156 related-event markets and is up about $325K lifetime.
- They are effectively buying Yes at 31¢ after selling No at 69¢.
- The market has moved sharply toward Yes, up 10.5 points today and 22 points this week.
$1,139 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
Profitable serial cross-market trader
A highly experienced, profitable cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes after strong recent momentum, though the trade size is modest relative to market liquidity.
- This bettor has 693 resolved trades, wins 68%, and is up $324k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 91 events, suggesting this is part of a broader thesis.
- Selling No at 69¢ is the same as buying Yes at 31¢, as Yes has moved up sharply this week.
$2,021 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
87% winner fading Yes move
Sharp profitable wallet with an 87% resolved win rate is buying No, making this worth surfacing despite only a modest cross-market signal.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $483K lifetime.
- They are buying No at 74¢ even after Yes rose 17.5 points this week, suggesting a sharp fade of the move.
- The wallet has also traded another related market, with $13.7K in cross-market positioning.
$1,546 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
87% winner buying No
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 87% resolved win rate and $482k lifetime profit bought No on an Israel airspace closure market.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $482,665 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 25 events with $1.48M in tracked volume.
- Entry at 74¢ means they are backing No despite Yes rising 18 points this week.
$1,870 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large history is taking a contrarian No position after Yes rallied sharply.
- This bettor has 946 resolved trades, wins 60% of them, and is up $32k lifetime.
- They repeatedly trade related markets across events, with activity across 37 events and 53 markets tracked.
- This is a contrarian No buy after Yes rose 20 points this week, suggesting they think the airspace-closure odds have moved too far.
$1,027 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
87% winner buying NO
Sharp cross-market trader with an 87% resolved win rate and +$482k lifetime profit is buying No on a near-term geopolitical airspace market.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $482,665 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.47M deployed across 53 related-event markets.
- They are buying No at 84¢ after Yes moved up 8.5% this week, effectively fading the recent rally.
$2,593 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Top Holders
- 0x9592...a7b8 — Outcome 11055223, $74,727 (93% win rate)
- 0x8d4b...07cb — Outcome 11055223, $38,460 (44% win rate)
- 0xe07a...6adb — Outcome 11055223, $36,294
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 11055223, $29,128 (70% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 11055223, $21,487 (79% win rate)
- 0xae7c...487e — Outcome 11055223, $18,000 (86% win rate)
- 0x515e...747c — Outcome 11055223, $16,242 (83% win rate)
- 0x3dd9...1cef — Outcome 11055223, $15,289
- 0xff91...a1ed — Outcome 11055223, $10,909 (71% win rate)
- 0x01a2...b1a0 — Outcome 11055223, $10,764 (20% win rate)
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