Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

50 smart money signals detected, totaling $115,034.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

88% winner backs No

Sharp cross-market trader with an 88% win rate and nearly $700k lifetime profit is adding a No position while also trading related markets in the same event.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $698k lifetime.
  • They are active across 4 related markets in this event, with $27.9k positioned.
  • Bought No at 87¢, and the market has already moved to 90¢ in their direction.

$1,223 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Profitable cross-market bettor

Surface because a profitable 75% win-rate wallet is taking a cross-market Yes view despite this being only a modest-sized trade.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $6.5k lifetime.
  • They have put about $5.7k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
  • Selling No at 87¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 13¢, close to the current 12¢ market price.

$1,109 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Profitable cross-market bettor

Profitable high-volume wallet with an 80% resolved win rate and +$93k lifetime P&L is buying No as part of a small cross-market thesis.

  • This bettor has won 80% of 168 resolved bets and is up $93k lifetime.
  • They are buying No at 81¢, taking the view that Israel does not broadly close airspace by the deadline.
  • They have $2.8k positioned across related markets, suggesting a broader event thesis.

$1,037 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

87% winner buying No

Sharp wallet with 87% win rate and +$482k lifetime P&L is buying No on a geopolitically plausible airspace-closure market.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $482k lifetime.
  • They have $13.6k positioned across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader view rather than a one-off bet.
  • Entry at 78¢ implies they see No as a high-confidence outcome despite Yes gaining 16 points this week.

$1,287 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Profitable serial event trader

A highly active cross-market trader with a long profitable history is taking Yes exposure amid strong recent market momentum.

  • This bettor has traded 156 related-event markets and is up about $325K lifetime.
  • They are effectively buying Yes at 31¢ after selling No at 69¢.
  • The market has moved sharply toward Yes, up 10.5 points today and 22 points this week.

$1,139 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

A highly experienced, profitable cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes after strong recent momentum, though the trade size is modest relative to market liquidity.

  • This bettor has 693 resolved trades, wins 68%, and is up $324k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 91 events, suggesting this is part of a broader thesis.
  • Selling No at 69¢ is the same as buying Yes at 31¢, as Yes has moved up sharply this week.

$2,021 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

87% winner fading Yes move

Sharp profitable wallet with an 87% resolved win rate is buying No, making this worth surfacing despite only a modest cross-market signal.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $483K lifetime.
  • They are buying No at 74¢ even after Yes rose 17.5 points this week, suggesting a sharp fade of the move.
  • The wallet has also traded another related market, with $13.7K in cross-market positioning.

$1,546 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

87% winner buying No

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 87% resolved win rate and $482k lifetime profit bought No on an Israel airspace closure market.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $482,665 lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 25 events with $1.48M in tracked volume.
  • Entry at 74¢ means they are backing No despite Yes rising 18 points this week.

$1,870 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large history is taking a contrarian No position after Yes rallied sharply.

  • This bettor has 946 resolved trades, wins 60% of them, and is up $32k lifetime.
  • They repeatedly trade related markets across events, with activity across 37 events and 53 markets tracked.
  • This is a contrarian No buy after Yes rose 20 points this week, suggesting they think the airspace-closure odds have moved too far.

$1,027 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

87% winner buying NO

Sharp cross-market trader with an 87% resolved win rate and +$482k lifetime profit is buying No on a near-term geopolitical airspace market.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $482,665 lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.47M deployed across 53 related-event markets.
  • They are buying No at 84¢ after Yes moved up 8.5% this week, effectively fading the recent rally.

$2,593 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9592...a7b8 Outcome 11055223, $74,727 (93% win rate)
  2. 0x8d4b...07cb Outcome 11055223, $38,460 (44% win rate)
  3. 0xe07a...6adb Outcome 11055223, $36,294
  4. 0xbd04...fbb0 Outcome 11055223, $29,128 (70% win rate)
  5. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 11055223, $21,487 (79% win rate)
  6. 0xae7c...487e Outcome 11055223, $18,000 (86% win rate)
  7. 0x515e...747c Outcome 11055223, $16,242 (83% win rate)
  8. 0x3dd9...1cef Outcome 11055223, $15,289
  9. 0xff91...a1ed Outcome 11055223, $10,909 (71% win rate)
  10. 0x01a2...b1a0 Outcome 11055223, $10,764 (20% win rate)

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Iran ceasefire will hold

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Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

ResolvedIsrael closes its airspace by...?$115,034 tracked50 signalsIranIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x Iran

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

37d ago

$1,223 on No at 87¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

37d ago

$1,109 on Yes at 13¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

38d ago

$1,037 on No at 81¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

38d ago

$1,287 on No at 78¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

38d ago

$1,139 on Yes at 31¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

38d ago

$2,021 on Yes at 31¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

38d ago

$1,546 on No at 74¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

38d ago

$1,870 on No at 74¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

38d ago

$1,027 on No at 73¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

39d ago

$2,593 on No at 84¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

39d ago

$1,648 on No at 83¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

39d ago

$3,300 on No at 83¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

39d ago

$1,623 on No at 82¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

39d ago

$1,260 on Yes at 21¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

39d ago

$1,162 on Yes at 20¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

39d ago

$1,600 on No at 82¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

39d ago

$1,794 on Yes at 20¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

39d ago

$1,007 on No at 78¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

39d ago

$5,000 on No at 90¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

39d ago

$2,000 on No at 90¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

39d ago

$5,504 on Yes at 11¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

40d ago

$2,640 on Yes at 12¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

40d ago

$3,997 on Yes at 18¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

40d ago

$1,058 on Yes at 16¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

40d ago

$1,796 on No at 87¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

40d ago

$2,400 on No at 86¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

40d ago

$1,925 on No at 86¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

40d ago

$1,300 on No at 80¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

40d ago

$1,369 on No at 79¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

40d ago

$2,000 on No at 83¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

40d ago

$2,549 on No at 79¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

40d ago

$1,499 on No at 78¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

40d ago

$2,125 on No at 85¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

40d ago

$3,198 on No at 77¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

40d ago

$2,150 on No at 43¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

40d ago

$9,356 on No at 43¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

40d ago

$4,281 on Yes at 56¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

40d ago

$3,391 on Yes at 56¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

40d ago

$2,022 on Yes at 56¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

41d ago

$3,000 on Yes at 53¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

41d ago

$4,444 on Yes at 60¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

41d ago

$2,670 on No at 44¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

41d ago

$1,350 on Yes at 54¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

41d ago

$1,526 on No at 50¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

41d ago

$1,300 on No at 45¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

41d ago

$1,600 on Yes at 64¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

41d ago

$1,920 on No at 40¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

41d ago

$1,048 on No at 39¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

41d ago

$2,565 on No at 81¢

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

41d ago

$3,804 on No at 67¢

Related Theses