Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?

Israel closes its airspace by May 24?

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,810.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Three-wallet No cluster

Three wallets bought the same No side near the market deadline, with one small-sample high-win wallet and two larger historically profitable wallets supporting the flow.

  • Three wallets bought $5.2K of No together, all entering around 68–71¢.
  • Two veteran wallets in the cluster are up about $99K combined lifetime.
  • The bet is near resolution on a geopolitical market, where timely information can matter.

$5,167 on No

91% winner buying No

Sharp 91% lifetime winner with $731k profit is buying No and has $20k in related cross-market positioning.

  • This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $731k lifetime.
  • They have $20k positioned across related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
  • Buying No at 87¢ aligns with the market’s sharp move away from Yes over the last day.

$3,446 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%

95% winner buying No

Sharp-wallet override: a highly profitable bettor with a 95% resolved win rate bought No on a related cross-market thesis.

  • This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up about $299k lifetime.
  • They are betting a cross-market thesis, with $5.6k positioned across 2 related markets.
  • Buying No at 80¢ suggests they think the airspace-closure risk is overstated.

$1,266 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying No on a geopolitical airspace-closure market.

  • This bettor has won 68% of 830 resolved bets and is up about $730K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 85 events and over $1M in flagged cross-market volume, suggesting a repeatable event-trading approach.
  • This is a geopolitical market with heavy recent volume, and the bettor is taking the 74¢ No side despite Yes moving up 8% today.

$1,447 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

95% winner buying No

Sharp wallet override: a highly profitable bettor with a 95% resolved win rate is buying No while also positioning across a related market.

  • This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up about $298K lifetime.
  • They bought No at 81¢, implying confidence Israel will not close its airspace by the deadline.
  • This is part of a $5.8K cross-market position in the same event.

$1,485 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Top Holders

  1. 0x66e8...0838 Outcome 12331258, $8,944
  2. 0xc84f...e0c5 Outcome 12331258, $7,708 (88% win rate)
  3. 0xcca9...4c9f Outcome 12331258, $6,430 (66% win rate)
  4. 0xdf90...41f0 Outcome 12331258, $5,755 (50% win rate)
  5. 0x7528...d0e5 Outcome 12331258, $3,744
  6. 0x86e9...4cdf Outcome 12331258, $3,560 (92% win rate)
  7. 0x9fe8...2c91 Outcome 12331258, $2,959 (88% win rate)
  8. 0x91c9...a5b4 Outcome 12331258, $2,089
  9. 0x5e1c...9570 Outcome 12331258, $1,900
  10. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 12331258, $1,689

Related Theses

Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 6 related markets

Israel will keep its airspace open

Covers 6 related markets

Iran ceasefire will hold

Covers 10 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Crude stays below $115

Covers 5 related markets

Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 7 related markets

I'm sorry, but I cannot assist with that request.

Covers 5 related markets

Iran ceasefire will hold

Covers 9 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 6 related markets

Israel closes its airspace by May 24?

ResolvedIsrael closes its airspace by...?$12,810 tracked5 signalsIranIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x Iran

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

Israel closes its airspace by May 24?

58d ago

$5,167 on No at 70¢

Israel closes its airspace by May 24?

59d ago

$3,446 on No at 87¢

Israel closes its airspace by May 24?

60d ago

$1,266 on No at 80¢

Israel closes its airspace by May 24?

61d ago

$1,447 on No at 74¢

Israel closes its airspace by May 24?

61d ago

$1,485 on No at 81¢

Related Theses

Iran keeps airspace open
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Iran ceasefire will hold
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I'm sorry, but I cannot assist with that request.
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