Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?

Israel closes its airspace by May 24?

This prediction market asks whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by May 24, 2026, resolving Yes only for a broad closure or suspension affecting all or most Israeli civilian airspace. PolySpotter is tracking $2,932 in smart money activity across 2 signals, including recent No-side buying from a high-win-rate trader.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,198.

Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

95% winner buying No

Sharp-wallet override: a highly profitable bettor with a 95% resolved win rate bought No on a related cross-market thesis.

  • This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up about $299k lifetime.
  • They are betting a cross-market thesis, with $5.6k positioned across 2 related markets.
  • Buying No at 80¢ suggests they think the airspace-closure risk is overstated.

$1,266 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying No on a geopolitical airspace-closure market.

  • This bettor has won 68% of 830 resolved bets and is up about $730K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 85 events and over $1M in flagged cross-market volume, suggesting a repeatable event-trading approach.
  • This is a geopolitical market with heavy recent volume, and the bettor is taking the 74¢ No side despite Yes moving up 8% today.

$1,447 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

95% winner buying No

Sharp wallet override: a highly profitable bettor with a 95% resolved win rate is buying No while also positioning across a related market.

  • This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up about $298K lifetime.
  • They bought No at 81¢, implying confidence Israel will not close its airspace by the deadline.
  • This is part of a $5.8K cross-market position in the same event.

$1,485 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%

Top Holders

  1. 0x32b8...8927 No, $11,143
  2. 0xaa6f...1dfe Yes, $11,000 (100% win rate)
  3. 0x2779...239a No, $6,696 (75% win rate)
  4. 0xe738...df65 Yes, $5,900 (65% win rate)
  5. 0x162f...798d No, $5,000 (70% win rate)
  6. 0x2974...9c23 No, $4,625 (95% win rate)
  7. 0x75bd...1fea Yes, $4,525 (38% win rate)
  8. 0xc84f...e0c5 Yes, $4,111 (91% win rate)
  9. 0x7528...d0e5 Yes, $3,820
  10. 0xecaa...77a9 No, $3,564 (68% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 6 related markets

Covers 6 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Israel closes its airspace by May 24?

3dIsrael closes its airspace by...?$4,198 tracked3 signalsIranIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x Iran
Yes
16¢
No
85¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
87¢
67¢
48¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel closes its airspace by May 24?

4h ago

$1,266 on No at 80¢

80¢85¢5¢

Israel closes its airspace by May 24?

15h ago

$1,447 on No at 74¢

74¢85¢11¢

Israel closes its airspace by May 24?

1d ago

$1,485 on No at 81¢

81¢85¢4¢

Related Theses