Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?
Israel closes its airspace by May 24?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $12,810.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
Three-wallet No cluster
Three wallets bought the same No side near the market deadline, with one small-sample high-win wallet and two larger historically profitable wallets supporting the flow.
- Three wallets bought $5.2K of No together, all entering around 68–71¢.
- Two veteran wallets in the cluster are up about $99K combined lifetime.
- The bet is near resolution on a geopolitical market, where timely information can matter.
$5,167 on No
91% winner buying No
Sharp 91% lifetime winner with $731k profit is buying No and has $20k in related cross-market positioning.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $731k lifetime.
- They have $20k positioned across related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Buying No at 87¢ aligns with the market’s sharp move away from Yes over the last day.
$3,446 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
95% winner buying No
Sharp-wallet override: a highly profitable bettor with a 95% resolved win rate bought No on a related cross-market thesis.
- This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up about $299k lifetime.
- They are betting a cross-market thesis, with $5.6k positioned across 2 related markets.
- Buying No at 80¢ suggests they think the airspace-closure risk is overstated.
$1,266 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying No on a geopolitical airspace-closure market.
- This bettor has won 68% of 830 resolved bets and is up about $730K lifetime.
- They have traded across 85 events and over $1M in flagged cross-market volume, suggesting a repeatable event-trading approach.
- This is a geopolitical market with heavy recent volume, and the bettor is taking the 74¢ No side despite Yes moving up 8% today.
$1,447 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
95% winner buying No
Sharp wallet override: a highly profitable bettor with a 95% resolved win rate is buying No while also positioning across a related market.
- This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up about $298K lifetime.
- They bought No at 81¢, implying confidence Israel will not close its airspace by the deadline.
- This is part of a $5.8K cross-market position in the same event.
$1,485 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%
Top Holders
- 0x66e8...0838 — Yes, $8,944
- 0xc84f...e0c5 — Yes, $7,708 (87% win rate)
- 0xcca9...4c9f — Yes, $6,430 (67% win rate)
- 0x7528...d0e5 — Yes, $3,744
- 0x86e9...4cdf — Yes, $3,560 (93% win rate)
- 0x9fe8...2c91 — Yes, $2,959 (88% win rate)
- 0x91c9...a5b4 — Yes, $2,089
- 0x5e1c...9570 — Yes, $1,900
- 0x44da...27a2 — Yes, $1,435
- 0x412c...2d87 — Yes, $1,261 (25% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran keeps airspace open
Covers 6 related markets
WTI stays below $85 in July
Covers 5 related markets
Iran ceasefire will hold
Covers 9 related markets
Iran ceasefire will hold
Covers 10 related markets
Crude stays below $115
Covers 5 related markets
Iran keeps airspace open
Covers 7 related markets
I'm sorry, but I cannot assist with that request.
Covers 5 related markets
Israel-Iran ceasefire holds through October
Covers 9 related markets
